EPAC: DOLORES - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

98E INVEST 150710 0600 10.8N 95.2W EPAC 15 1009

[cycloneye]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec are associated with a tropical wave and a weak area of
low pressure. Conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development over the next several days, and this system will likely
become a tropical depression later this weekend or early next week
while it moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[Kingarabian]

I say it barely make it to cat.5 and reaches a peak at 165mph (175mph if it overachieves).

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Ntxw]

Marie Part Deux. As long as it keeps moving then conditions look unabated.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP982015 07/10/15 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 15 17 18 20 21 25 31 35 37 39 40 42 42
V (KT) LAND 15 17 18 20 21 25 31 35 37 39 40 42 42
V (KT) LGE mod 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 17 18 19 21 22 24
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 26 19 20 19 19 17 13 8 8 2 11 20 19
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 2 -3 -2 -2 -7 -6 -3
SHEAR DIR 232 220 201 193 198 176 190 177 240 182 115 95 94
SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.2 30.0 29.9 29.3 28.6 28.1 27.8 27.8
POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 163 165 165 168 166 165 157 149 144 140 140
200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -52.7 -52.2 -51.9 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 5
700-500 MB RH 83 84 84 85 83 79 78 77 77 78 76 78 76
MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 48 48 46 49 47 37 16 4 -4 -5 -9 -3 -6
200 MB DIV 70 44 66 85 85 61 65 43 27 39 65 59 43
700-850 TADV 4 3 6 8 7 11 8 7 0 2 0 0 4
LAND (KM) 521 494 450 408 368 342 322 337 391 502 583 617 686
LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.3 11.7 12.3 12.8 14.0 15.2 16.3 17.1 17.5 17.7 17.7 17.5
LONG(DEG W) 95.2 96.1 96.9 97.9 98.9 101.2 103.6 105.8 107.8 109.4 110.8 112.1 113.2
STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 11 12 13 13 11 9 7 7 6 5
HEAT CONTENT 64 69 73 73 71 41 53 49 36 24 15 10 8

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 6. 15. 26. 34. 39. 42. 45. 46.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -10. -9. -8.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. -11.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 10. 16. 20. 22. 24. 25. 27. 27.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982015 INVEST 07/10/15 06 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 147.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 70.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

Models have backed off somewhat and upwelling could be an issue if it stalls for more than 24 hours.

[cycloneye]

Marie Part Deux. As long as it keeps moving then conditions look unabated.

I always liked Maries perfect look.You think this will be like what Marie was of course as you said if it doesn't stall like Blanca did.

Hurricane Marie.

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS doesn't even make this a hurricane.

GFS having issues with storm tracks like it did in 2013.

[cycloneye]

ECMWF has the best scenario for track and intensity.

[Yellow Evan]

HWRF/GFDL aren't keen on this either.


Conditions though appear good enough for 4-5 days.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP982015 07/10/15 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 15 15 16 17 18 22 25 29 32 34 34 33 33
V (KT) LAND 15 15 16 17 18 22 25 29 32 34 34 33 33
V (KT) LGE mod 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 19 17 17 16 13 10 6 2 6 11 18 18 16
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -5 -5 -5 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -3 2
SHEAR DIR 226 216 199 205 199 178 240 284 351 47 54 50 46
SST (C) 29.6 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.4 30.1 29.9 28.8 27.9 27.2 27.0 26.9
POT. INT. (KT) 160 163 164 165 165 171 167 164 152 142 134 133 131
200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 -53.5 -52.4 -52.6 -51.4 -52.0 -51.6 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 6 8 6 8 5 6 4 4 3
700-500 MB RH 83 85 85 84 83 80 76 75 76 75 74 73 71
MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 67 54 51 46 40 30 -2 -9 -7 -8 -8 -9 -27
200 MB DIV 88 102 111 91 95 94 24 63 35 72 37 47 -12
700-850 TADV 3 6 8 10 8 14 13 6 0 0 -1 -3 -3
LAND (KM) 521 483 428 382 339 290 246 250 319 402 404 416 500
LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.4 11.9 12.5 13.1 14.6 16.0 17.3 18.2 18.9 19.3 19.6 19.7
LONG(DEG W) 95.2 96.1 96.9 98.0 99.0 101.4 103.8 106.0 107.8 109.2 110.6 111.9 113.4
STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 11 12 13 14 13 11 9 7 6 7 7
HEAT CONTENT 68 72 71 67 60 39 45 38 25 15 9 3 3

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 15. 26. 34. 39. 42. 44. 45.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. -9.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 14. 17. 19. 19. 18. 18.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982015 INVEST 07/10/15 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 148.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 67.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure about 500
miles south-southeast of Acapulco have become much more concentrated
and better organized during the last 24 hours. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for continued development,
and this system will likely become a tropical depression over the
weekend while it moves generally west- northwestward to
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP982015 07/10/15 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 39 42 44 50 46 43 38 34
V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 39 42 44 50 46 43 38 34
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 29 30 33 35 37 36 34 30
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 16 18 15 14 12 11 3 6 8 11 13 10 6
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -7 -6 -5 -4 -2 -2 -2 -3 1 1 7 6
SHEAR DIR 188 181 189 187 179 210 237 286 36 40 33 26 359
SST (C) 29.6 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.2 30.4 30.3 29.3 27.9 26.9 25.8 25.1 24.7
POT. INT. (KT) 160 163 165 167 169 171 169 158 143 132 120 113 109
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 -53.5 -53.0 -52.6 -52.2 -51.5 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 3
700-500 MB RH 84 85 85 83 79 77 74 69 67 65 65 65 61
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 12 13 14 13 12 14 13 12 10 9
850 MB ENV VOR 60 54 45 40 36 14 -17 5 -3 0 -14 -14 -8
200 MB DIV 106 116 95 98 81 62 34 47 48 52 23 6 -9
700-850 TADV 3 3 5 4 6 10 7 -1 -2 -3 0 -3 4
LAND (KM) 535 463 406 334 286 212 130 135 239 219 171 268 335
LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.5 12.2 13.1 13.9 15.7 17.6 19.2 20.4 21.0 21.6 22.0 22.4
LONG(DEG W) 95.8 96.6 97.5 98.6 99.7 102.1 104.4 106.4 108.0 109.4 110.9 112.5 114.3
STM SPEED (KT) 7 11 13 14 14 15 13 11 8 8 7 8 9
HEAT CONTENT 68 73 68 63 49 48 33 29 9 5 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 30. 33. 34. 34. 34.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. 4. 2. 1. -2. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 17. 19. 25. 21. 18. 13. 9.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982015 INVEST 07/10/15 18 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 64.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982015 INVEST 07/10/15 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##

[cycloneye]

EP, 98, 2015071018, , BEST, 0, 109N, 958W, 25, 1007, DB

[Yellow Evan]

BANM seems to be propagating this too fast, which is why the SHIPS is showing what it is.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system
located about 400 miles south-southeast of Acapulco Mexico continue
to become better organized. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for continued development, and this system will
likely become a tropical depression during the next day or two while
it moves generally west-northwestward to northwestward. Interests
along the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico should monitor
the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[CrazyC83]

Steering currents tend to often be quite weak in July in those latitudes, since there aren't usually fronts or troughs to steer things and only large ridges move things.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS

[Kingarabian]

The GFS is spoiling the party...

[Yellow Evan]

The GFS is spoiling the party...

Meh, but the GFS is showing a more NW track while the ECMWF keeps it more WNW. If we want stronger, we better hope for a WNW track.