HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
900 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2015
Cloud tops have actually cooled around Dolores's eye during the
past few hours, with a black ring completely encircling the eye in
the infrared Dvorak enhancement. This would suggest that weakening
is not occurring at the moment, and the initial intensity is held
at 100 kt. Dolores has another 24 hours or so before it reaches
sub-26C water, and given the hurricane's marginal annular structure,
only gradual weakening is anticipated in the short term. Much
colder water, increasing shear, and a drier, more stable environment
should induce a faster rate of weakening after 24 hours, and Dolores
could become a tropical storm within 48 hours. The cyclone is
expected to be a remnant low by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast
is close to a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models for the first 36
hours and then near the IVCN intensity consensus thereafter. The
SHIPS and LGEM dissipate the system by day 4 or 5, which seems
unrealistic given that the global models maintain a cyclone for the
entire forecast period.
Dolores has been moving northwestward, or 305/6 kt, but it should
turn west-northwestward soon as a mid-level ridge axis builds
westward from northern Mexico. A turn back to the northwest and
then north-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected
beyond 48 hours once Dolores reaches the western periphery of the
ridge. The GFS and ECMWF models are in much better agreement than
they were yesterday, and the main outliers on this cycle are the
UKMET and GFDL, which seem too far to the east. The new NHC track
forecast remains near the GFS-ECMWF consensus and is not much
different from the previous forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/1500Z 19.9N 111.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 20.3N 113.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 20.9N 114.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 21.3N 116.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 22.3N 117.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 25.6N 120.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 29.5N 123.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 30.5N 124.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Berg
EPAC: DOLORES - Post-Tropical
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: DOLORES - Hurricane
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: DOLORES - Hurricane
HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
300 PM MDT THU JUL 16 2015
Dolores's satellite presentation is slowly deteriorating. Cloud
tops have been warming since the last advisory, and visible and
microwave imagery indicate that dry air is wrapping into the
circulation. The intensity is estimated to have decreased to 90 kt
based on a blend of Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB, SAB, and the
UW-CIMSS ADT. Progressively cooler water, a drier and more stable
environment, and increasing shear in about three days will all
contribute to continued weakening through the entire forecast
period. The intensity models are in good agreement on the rate of
weakening during the next few days, and the NHC intensity forecast
is very close to the IVCN intensity consensus. Due to the
increasingly hostile environment, Dolores could become a remnant
low by day 4.
Dolores has turned west-northwestward with an initial motion of
300/7 kt. A building mid-level ridge to the northeast should keep
the cyclone moving west-northwestward for the next 36 hours,
followed by a turn to the northwest and north-northwest once Dolores
reaches the western periphery of the ridge. The GFDL remains an
eastern outlier after 36 hours, but otherwise the rest of the models
are in very good agreement on Dolores's future track. The NHC track
forecast is near a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF, and no major
changes from the previous forecast were required on this cycle.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/2100Z 20.2N 112.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 20.6N 113.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 21.1N 115.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 21.7N 116.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 23.0N 118.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 26.8N 121.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 30.0N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/1800Z 30.5N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Berg
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
300 PM MDT THU JUL 16 2015
Dolores's satellite presentation is slowly deteriorating. Cloud
tops have been warming since the last advisory, and visible and
microwave imagery indicate that dry air is wrapping into the
circulation. The intensity is estimated to have decreased to 90 kt
based on a blend of Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB, SAB, and the
UW-CIMSS ADT. Progressively cooler water, a drier and more stable
environment, and increasing shear in about three days will all
contribute to continued weakening through the entire forecast
period. The intensity models are in good agreement on the rate of
weakening during the next few days, and the NHC intensity forecast
is very close to the IVCN intensity consensus. Due to the
increasingly hostile environment, Dolores could become a remnant
low by day 4.
Dolores has turned west-northwestward with an initial motion of
300/7 kt. A building mid-level ridge to the northeast should keep
the cyclone moving west-northwestward for the next 36 hours,
followed by a turn to the northwest and north-northwest once Dolores
reaches the western periphery of the ridge. The GFDL remains an
eastern outlier after 36 hours, but otherwise the rest of the models
are in very good agreement on Dolores's future track. The NHC track
forecast is near a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF, and no major
changes from the previous forecast were required on this cycle.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/2100Z 20.2N 112.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 20.6N 113.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 21.1N 115.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 21.7N 116.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 23.0N 118.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 26.8N 121.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 30.0N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/1800Z 30.5N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Berg
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Yellow Evan
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Re: Re:
WeatherGuesser wrote:galaxy401 wrote:KBBOCA wrote:I can't believe how QUIET it is in here.
There's just a lack of interest going on.
These threads are hard to follow. Not much discussion, but multiple posts with seemingly the same information even if bits are different. Things are posted without any information as to why or what they mean. It's as if this is a met-to-met board only with no regard for the general public.
I just sit back, scan and say little. Maybe one out of ten or fifteen posts is something I can understand.
The only post I didn't understand was the "200 MB T (C) -51.2 -50.9 -51.2 -51.2 -50.8 -50.6 -50.7 -50.9 -50.9 -50.9 -51.6 -50.9 -51.1 - Upper-atmosphere too warm." one. Poster's don't have time to fully explain everything in every post.
It looked like this hurricane peaked so fast that by the time the NHC got the discussion out when it reached 115 knots, it was already degrading and had done so for a few hours. I first checked it 1 hour after the package and thought 115 was too high but I saw the loop and realized the situation.
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Yellow Evan
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Re: Re:
Cyclenall wrote: The only post I didn't understand was the "200 MB T (C) -51.2 -50.9 -51.2 -51.2 -50.8 -50.6 -50.7 -50.9 -50.9 -50.9 -51.6 -50.9 -51.1 - Upper-atmosphere too warm." one. Poster's don't have time to fully explain everything in every post.
It looked like this hurricane peaked so fast that by the time the NHC got the discussion out when it reached 115 knots, it was already degrading and had done so for a few hours. I first checked it 1 hour after the package and thought 115 was too high but I saw the loop and realized the situation.
That's the SHIPS model output.
The 200 MB TC line is the temperature of the upper-atmosphere. The V (KT) NO LAND line is the SHIPS model forecast. The V (K) LAND is the same as the V (KT) NO LAND except for when the storm is near land, when the no land one does not take into accoubt land interaction when the land one does. The V (KT) LGE mode is the LGEM forecast. The SHEAR DIR shows the direction of where the shear is coming from. The 700-500 MB RH is upper-level humidity values (above 60 is good). Rest aren't too important, self-explanatory AFAIK, or I don't know myself.
I'm happy to explain these if you have a question once, but I won't re-type it every time.
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: DOLORES - Hurricane
HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
900 PM MDT THU JUL 16 2015
Dolores's convective cloud pattern continues to deteriorate with a
significant erosion of deep convection having occurred in the
western semicircle since the previous advisory. However, the
eyewall convection has changed little and the eye has contracted
down to about a 15-nmi diameter. A blend of Dvorak CI numbers
from TAFB and SAB, along UW-CIMSS ADT values, supports lowering the
initial intensity to 85 kt for this advisory.
The initial motion estimate is 310/08 kt. Dolores has made a
noticeable jog toward the northwest during the past 6 hours, which
was likely due to the aforementioned convective asymmetry that has
developed. However, this should just be a short term motion and a
turn back toward the west-northwest is expected later tonight, and
then continue for another 36 hours or so. After that, the cyclone is
forecast to turn toward the northwest and north-northwest as Dolores
skirts along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge that
extends westward from the U.S Southern Plains across northern Mexico
and Baja California. The NHC forecast track is to the right of the
previous advisory track, mainly to account for the more northerly
initial position, and lies close to the multi-model consensus TVCE
and the FSSE model.
Dolores is forecast to move over progressively cooler waters during
the 5-day period, reaching sub-26C SSTs within the next 12 hours or
so and moving over 23C water temperatures by 48 hours. The result
should be continued erosion of Dolores's convective pattern along
with steady weakening. Dolores is expected to become a remnant low
pressure system in 72 hours, if not sooner. The official intensity
forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows
the ICON intensity consensus model.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/0300Z 20.8N 113.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 21.2N 114.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 21.7N 116.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 22.7N 117.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 24.4N 118.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 28.7N 121.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/0000Z 30.5N 122.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/0000Z 30.2N 123.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Stewart
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
900 PM MDT THU JUL 16 2015
Dolores's convective cloud pattern continues to deteriorate with a
significant erosion of deep convection having occurred in the
western semicircle since the previous advisory. However, the
eyewall convection has changed little and the eye has contracted
down to about a 15-nmi diameter. A blend of Dvorak CI numbers
from TAFB and SAB, along UW-CIMSS ADT values, supports lowering the
initial intensity to 85 kt for this advisory.
The initial motion estimate is 310/08 kt. Dolores has made a
noticeable jog toward the northwest during the past 6 hours, which
was likely due to the aforementioned convective asymmetry that has
developed. However, this should just be a short term motion and a
turn back toward the west-northwest is expected later tonight, and
then continue for another 36 hours or so. After that, the cyclone is
forecast to turn toward the northwest and north-northwest as Dolores
skirts along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge that
extends westward from the U.S Southern Plains across northern Mexico
and Baja California. The NHC forecast track is to the right of the
previous advisory track, mainly to account for the more northerly
initial position, and lies close to the multi-model consensus TVCE
and the FSSE model.
Dolores is forecast to move over progressively cooler waters during
the 5-day period, reaching sub-26C SSTs within the next 12 hours or
so and moving over 23C water temperatures by 48 hours. The result
should be continued erosion of Dolores's convective pattern along
with steady weakening. Dolores is expected to become a remnant low
pressure system in 72 hours, if not sooner. The official intensity
forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows
the ICON intensity consensus model.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/0300Z 20.8N 113.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 21.2N 114.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 21.7N 116.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 22.7N 117.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 24.4N 118.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 28.7N 121.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/0000Z 30.5N 122.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/0000Z 30.2N 123.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Stewart
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: DOLORES - Hurricane
HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
300 AM MDT FRI JUL 17 2015
The cloud pattern of Dolores has continued to deteriorate, with an
eye no longer apparent, and the coverage and intensity of deep
convection on the wane. The current intensity estimate is 70 kt
which is a blend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. This may
be generous, considering the data T-numbers from these agencies.
The tropical cyclone will be moving over progressively cooler sea
surface temperatures over the next few days, and into a more stable
air mass. Additionally, the dynamical guidance shows a significant
increase in vertical shear over Dolores in 48 to 72 hours. The
official intensity forecast shows a steady weakening trend, but is
still somewhat higher than the latest intensity model consensus.
With the eye no longer discernible, the center has become more
difficult to track. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat
uncertain 295/9. Over the next several days, Dolores is expected to
move along the southwestern and western periphery of a mid-level
subtropical ridge extending from the southwestern United States.
Late in the forecast period, the cyclone is forecast to become
steered by a cyclonic gyre to the southwest of southern California,
and to move in a counterclockwise fashion. The official track
forecast is near the dynamical model consensus and is similar to the
previous NHC forecast. This is also between the latest GFS and
ECMWF solutions.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/0900Z 21.2N 114.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 21.4N 115.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 22.0N 116.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 23.5N 118.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 25.3N 119.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 29.0N 122.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/0600Z 30.5N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/0600Z 29.0N 124.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Pasch
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
300 AM MDT FRI JUL 17 2015
The cloud pattern of Dolores has continued to deteriorate, with an
eye no longer apparent, and the coverage and intensity of deep
convection on the wane. The current intensity estimate is 70 kt
which is a blend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. This may
be generous, considering the data T-numbers from these agencies.
The tropical cyclone will be moving over progressively cooler sea
surface temperatures over the next few days, and into a more stable
air mass. Additionally, the dynamical guidance shows a significant
increase in vertical shear over Dolores in 48 to 72 hours. The
official intensity forecast shows a steady weakening trend, but is
still somewhat higher than the latest intensity model consensus.
With the eye no longer discernible, the center has become more
difficult to track. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat
uncertain 295/9. Over the next several days, Dolores is expected to
move along the southwestern and western periphery of a mid-level
subtropical ridge extending from the southwestern United States.
Late in the forecast period, the cyclone is forecast to become
steered by a cyclonic gyre to the southwest of southern California,
and to move in a counterclockwise fashion. The official track
forecast is near the dynamical model consensus and is similar to the
previous NHC forecast. This is also between the latest GFS and
ECMWF solutions.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/0900Z 21.2N 114.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 21.4N 115.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 22.0N 116.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 23.5N 118.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 25.3N 119.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 29.0N 122.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/0600Z 30.5N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/0600Z 29.0N 124.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: DOLORES - Tropical Storm
TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015
The center of Dolores is now over water colder than 26C, and deep
convection continues to gradually wane. Dvorak CI numbers ranged
from 55-77 kt at 1200 UTC, and the advisory intensity is set at 60
kt, which is in agreement with the most recent UW-CIMSS ADT
estimate. Steady weakening is expected to continue due to even
colder water and an increase in vertical shear in about 48 hours,
and Dolores is likely to become a remnant low in a few days.
Dissipation is now forecast by day 5 based on the latest global
model guidance.
The initial motion is 295/8 kt. A mid-level subtropical ridge
extending from northern Mexico westward over the Pacific Ocean
should continue steering Dolores west-northwestward through
tonight. Starting on Saturday, the cyclone will accelerate
northwestward and north-northwestward around the western periphery
of the ridge. By day 4, the remnant low will likely become nearly
stationary well southwest of southern California due to weak
low-level steering flow. The NHC track forecast is close to the
model consensus and is not much different from the previous
forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/1500Z 21.4N 115.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 21.9N 116.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 22.9N 117.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 24.7N 119.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 26.8N 120.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 30.7N 122.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/1200Z 31.0N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015
The center of Dolores is now over water colder than 26C, and deep
convection continues to gradually wane. Dvorak CI numbers ranged
from 55-77 kt at 1200 UTC, and the advisory intensity is set at 60
kt, which is in agreement with the most recent UW-CIMSS ADT
estimate. Steady weakening is expected to continue due to even
colder water and an increase in vertical shear in about 48 hours,
and Dolores is likely to become a remnant low in a few days.
Dissipation is now forecast by day 5 based on the latest global
model guidance.
The initial motion is 295/8 kt. A mid-level subtropical ridge
extending from northern Mexico westward over the Pacific Ocean
should continue steering Dolores west-northwestward through
tonight. Starting on Saturday, the cyclone will accelerate
northwestward and north-northwestward around the western periphery
of the ridge. By day 4, the remnant low will likely become nearly
stationary well southwest of southern California due to weak
low-level steering flow. The NHC track forecast is close to the
model consensus and is not much different from the previous
forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/1500Z 21.4N 115.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 21.9N 116.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 22.9N 117.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 24.7N 119.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 26.8N 120.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 30.7N 122.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/1200Z 31.0N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: DOLORES - Tropical Storm
TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015
Dolores is producing a patch of deep convection to the west and
northwest of its low-level center. The maximum winds continue to
decrease, and the advisory intensity is set at 50 kt based on a
blend of the decreasing Dvorak CI numbers. A 1656 UTC ASCAT-B pass
showed a swath of 40-45 kt winds northwest of the center, and given
the instrument's resolution, it is possible that a small area of
50-kt winds could still be occurring within the deep convection.
Colder water and increasing shear in the next 24-48 hours are
expected to lead to further steady weakening, and Dolores is
forecast to become a tropical depression by 36 hours and a remnant
low by day 3. The official intensity forecast is near the
intensity consensus. However, the recent rate of weakening has
been faster than expected, and Dolores could become a remnant low
sooner than shown below.
Dolores appears to have jogged westward today, and the longer-term
motion is 285/9 kt. The cyclone will be approaching the western
periphery of the subtropical ridge during the next day or so, which
will cause it to turn northwestward and then north-northwestward by
48 hours. Once Dolores becomes a remnant low, weak low-level
steering should cause it to become nearly stationary on day 4 well
southwest of the southern California coast. The updated NHC track
forecast has been shifted slightly eastward, but still lies west of
the TVCN multi-model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/2100Z 21.3N 116.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 21.9N 117.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 23.3N 118.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 25.2N 119.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 27.5N 120.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 30.6N 121.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/1800Z 31.0N 121.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015
Dolores is producing a patch of deep convection to the west and
northwest of its low-level center. The maximum winds continue to
decrease, and the advisory intensity is set at 50 kt based on a
blend of the decreasing Dvorak CI numbers. A 1656 UTC ASCAT-B pass
showed a swath of 40-45 kt winds northwest of the center, and given
the instrument's resolution, it is possible that a small area of
50-kt winds could still be occurring within the deep convection.
Colder water and increasing shear in the next 24-48 hours are
expected to lead to further steady weakening, and Dolores is
forecast to become a tropical depression by 36 hours and a remnant
low by day 3. The official intensity forecast is near the
intensity consensus. However, the recent rate of weakening has
been faster than expected, and Dolores could become a remnant low
sooner than shown below.
Dolores appears to have jogged westward today, and the longer-term
motion is 285/9 kt. The cyclone will be approaching the western
periphery of the subtropical ridge during the next day or so, which
will cause it to turn northwestward and then north-northwestward by
48 hours. Once Dolores becomes a remnant low, weak low-level
steering should cause it to become nearly stationary on day 4 well
southwest of the southern California coast. The updated NHC track
forecast has been shifted slightly eastward, but still lies west of
the TVCN multi-model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/2100Z 21.3N 116.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 21.9N 117.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 23.3N 118.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 25.2N 119.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 27.5N 120.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 30.6N 121.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/1800Z 31.0N 121.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: DOLORES - Tropical Storm
TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015
The coverage and intensity of deep convection associated with
Dolores continues to wane, with only patchy areas of cloud tops
colder than -50C remaining. The initial intensity has been lowered
to 40 kt based on a blend of the latest subjective and objective
Dvorak estimates. With the cyclone moving over steadily decreasing
SSTs during the next couple of days, continued weakening is forecast
and Dolores is now expected to become post-tropical by 48 hours,
although this could occur even sooner.
The initial motion estimate is 290/09. The track forecast reasoning
is unchanged, as the cyclone will be moving around the western
periphery of the subtropical ridge, resulting in a turn toward the
northwest and north-northwest in the next 24 hours. After Dolores
becomes a remnant low, the system is forecast to turn northward and
then move slowly prior to dissipation in the weak low-level flow
well southwest of the coast of southern California. The new NHC
track forecast is very close to the previous one and continues to
lie a little to the left of the TVCE multi-model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/0300Z 21.8N 116.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 22.5N 117.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 24.2N 118.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 26.2N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 28.3N 120.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/0000Z 30.7N 121.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/0000Z 31.0N 120.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brennan
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015
The coverage and intensity of deep convection associated with
Dolores continues to wane, with only patchy areas of cloud tops
colder than -50C remaining. The initial intensity has been lowered
to 40 kt based on a blend of the latest subjective and objective
Dvorak estimates. With the cyclone moving over steadily decreasing
SSTs during the next couple of days, continued weakening is forecast
and Dolores is now expected to become post-tropical by 48 hours,
although this could occur even sooner.
The initial motion estimate is 290/09. The track forecast reasoning
is unchanged, as the cyclone will be moving around the western
periphery of the subtropical ridge, resulting in a turn toward the
northwest and north-northwest in the next 24 hours. After Dolores
becomes a remnant low, the system is forecast to turn northward and
then move slowly prior to dissipation in the weak low-level flow
well southwest of the coast of southern California. The new NHC
track forecast is very close to the previous one and continues to
lie a little to the left of the TVCE multi-model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/0300Z 21.8N 116.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 22.5N 117.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 24.2N 118.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 26.2N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 28.3N 120.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/0000Z 30.7N 121.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/0000Z 31.0N 120.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Yellow Evan
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Yellow Evan
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: DOLORES - Tropical Storm
TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015
Dolores's low-level center is becoming increasingly separated from
the remaining deep convection, which is hanging back over the
warmer water to the south. Dvorak CI numbers range from 30-35 kt,
and the initial intensity is therefore conservatively set at 35 kt.
Cold water ahead of the cyclone should continue the current
weakening trend, and Dolores should become a remnant low within 24
hours once all the deep convection near the center dissipates. The
remnant low should then dissipate by day 4 southwest of the southern
California coast. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the GFS
and the consensus of the hurricane intensity models (IVCN).
Dolores has turned northwestward, or 315/9 kt, in the flow between
a subtropical ridge over northern Mexico and a deep-layer trough
west of California. The cyclone is expected to accelerate toward
the north-northwest during the next couple of days and then drift
northward or northeastward by day 3 when it's left in weak
low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is a little to the east of
the previous forecast during the first 12-24 hours to account for
the recent turn toward the northwest, but otherwise it is very
similar after 24 hours. This solution is very close to the
GFS-ECMWF consensus.
Moisture associated with Dolores is expected to spread over the
southwestern United States over the next few days, increasing the
possibility of heavy rains and flash flooding over portions of
Arizona, southern California, and southern Nevada. Please refer to
statements from your local weather office at http://www.weather.gov for
more information.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/1500Z 23.1N 118.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 24.4N 118.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 26.7N 119.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 20/0000Z 29.2N 120.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 20/1200Z 30.9N 120.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/1200Z 31.5N 120.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015
Dolores's low-level center is becoming increasingly separated from
the remaining deep convection, which is hanging back over the
warmer water to the south. Dvorak CI numbers range from 30-35 kt,
and the initial intensity is therefore conservatively set at 35 kt.
Cold water ahead of the cyclone should continue the current
weakening trend, and Dolores should become a remnant low within 24
hours once all the deep convection near the center dissipates. The
remnant low should then dissipate by day 4 southwest of the southern
California coast. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the GFS
and the consensus of the hurricane intensity models (IVCN).
Dolores has turned northwestward, or 315/9 kt, in the flow between
a subtropical ridge over northern Mexico and a deep-layer trough
west of California. The cyclone is expected to accelerate toward
the north-northwest during the next couple of days and then drift
northward or northeastward by day 3 when it's left in weak
low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is a little to the east of
the previous forecast during the first 12-24 hours to account for
the recent turn toward the northwest, but otherwise it is very
similar after 24 hours. This solution is very close to the
GFS-ECMWF consensus.
Moisture associated with Dolores is expected to spread over the
southwestern United States over the next few days, increasing the
possibility of heavy rains and flash flooding over portions of
Arizona, southern California, and southern Nevada. Please refer to
statements from your local weather office at http://www.weather.gov for
more information.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/1500Z 23.1N 118.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 24.4N 118.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 26.7N 119.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 20/0000Z 29.2N 120.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 20/1200Z 30.9N 120.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/1200Z 31.5N 120.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
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Yellow Evan
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You know a storm is dead when ADT is at 1.5:
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 JUL 2015 Time : 140000 UTC
Lat : 22:58:01 N Lon : 117:54:10 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
1.9 /1006.6mb/ 29.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
1.8 1.5 1.5
Center Temp : +14.7C Cloud Region Temp : 1.2C
Scene Type : SHEAR (>1.25^ TO DG)
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 JUL 2015 Time : 140000 UTC
Lat : 22:58:01 N Lon : 117:54:10 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
1.9 /1006.6mb/ 29.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
1.8 1.5 1.5
Center Temp : +14.7C Cloud Region Temp : 1.2C
Scene Type : SHEAR (>1.25^ TO DG)
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cycloneye
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- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: DOLORES - Tropical Storm
TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015
ASCAT scatterometer data indicate that Dolores still has a band of
tropical storm force winds within its eastern semicircle, and the
initial intensity remains 35 kt. However, deep convection continues
to weaken, and the center of the cyclone is now over sea surface
temperatures between 22 and 23 degrees Celsius. Maximum surface
winds should gradually decrease as the circulation spins down, and
Dolores could be a remnant low within 12 hours if it does not
regenerate deep convection near the center. Most of the global
models then show the remnant low degenerating into a trough off the
coast of southern California by day 3, and dissipation is indicated
in the official forecast at that time.
Dolores is now moving north-northwestward, or 330/10 kt, around the
western periphery of the subtropical ridge. The ridge is expected
to steer the remnant low north-northwestward and then northward
until dissipation. The track guidance envelope has shifted a bit
eastward, and the official forecast follows that trend, lying just
to the west of the various multi-model consensus solutions.
Moisture associated with Dolores is spreading over the southwestern
United States and will increase the possibility of heavy rains and
flash flooding during the next few days over portions of Arizona,
southern California, southern Nevada, and southwestern Utah. Please
refer to statements from your local weather office at
http://www.weather.gov for more information.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/2100Z 24.3N 118.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 25.7N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 19/1800Z 28.4N 119.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 20/0600Z 30.8N 120.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 20/1800Z 32.2N 120.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015
ASCAT scatterometer data indicate that Dolores still has a band of
tropical storm force winds within its eastern semicircle, and the
initial intensity remains 35 kt. However, deep convection continues
to weaken, and the center of the cyclone is now over sea surface
temperatures between 22 and 23 degrees Celsius. Maximum surface
winds should gradually decrease as the circulation spins down, and
Dolores could be a remnant low within 12 hours if it does not
regenerate deep convection near the center. Most of the global
models then show the remnant low degenerating into a trough off the
coast of southern California by day 3, and dissipation is indicated
in the official forecast at that time.
Dolores is now moving north-northwestward, or 330/10 kt, around the
western periphery of the subtropical ridge. The ridge is expected
to steer the remnant low north-northwestward and then northward
until dissipation. The track guidance envelope has shifted a bit
eastward, and the official forecast follows that trend, lying just
to the west of the various multi-model consensus solutions.
Moisture associated with Dolores is spreading over the southwestern
United States and will increase the possibility of heavy rains and
flash flooding during the next few days over portions of Arizona,
southern California, southern Nevada, and southwestern Utah. Please
refer to statements from your local weather office at
http://www.weather.gov for more information.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/2100Z 24.3N 118.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 25.7N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 19/1800Z 28.4N 119.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 20/0600Z 30.8N 120.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 20/1800Z 32.2N 120.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
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WeatherGuesser
- Category 5
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Re: EPAC: DOLORES - Tropical Storm
Dolores could be a remnant low within 12 hours if it does not
regenerate deep convection near the center. Most of the global
models then show the remnant low degenerating into a trough off the
coast of southern California by day 3, and dissipation is indicated
in the official forecast at that time.
No landfall, eh?
SoCal is getting storms as of now.
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Re: Re:
Yellow Evan wrote:Cyclenall wrote: The only post I didn't understand was the "200 MB T (C) -51.2 -50.9 -51.2 -51.2 -50.8 -50.6 -50.7 -50.9 -50.9 -50.9 -51.6 -50.9 -51.1 - Upper-atmosphere too warm." one. Poster's don't have time to fully explain everything in every post.
It looked like this hurricane peaked so fast that by the time the NHC got the discussion out when it reached 115 knots, it was already degrading and had done so for a few hours. I first checked it 1 hour after the package and thought 115 was too high but I saw the loop and realized the situation.
That's the SHIPS model output.
The 200 MB TC line is the temperature of the upper-atmosphere. The V (KT) NO LAND line is the SHIPS model forecast. The V (K) LAND is the same as the V (KT) NO LAND except for when the storm is near land, when the no land one does not take into accoubt land interaction when the land one does. The V (KT) LGE mode is the LGEM forecast. The SHEAR DIR shows the direction of where the shear is coming from. The 700-500 MB RH is upper-level humidity values (above 60 is good). Rest aren't too important, self-explanatory AFAIK, or I don't know myself.
I'm happy to explain these if you have a question once, but I won't re-type it every time.
I know that came from the SHIPS model output and I understand what 80% of the lines in that output are, I'm talking more about why the 200 mb line being warm is a bad thing for tropical cyclones. What's an example of a ideal temperature?
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Yellow Evan
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Re: Re:
Cyclenall wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:
That's the SHIPS model output.
The 200 MB TC line is the temperature of the upper-atmosphere. The V (KT) NO LAND line is the SHIPS model forecast. The V (K) LAND is the same as the V (KT) NO LAND except for when the storm is near land, when the no land one does not take into accoubt land interaction when the land one does. The V (KT) LGE mode is the LGEM forecast. The SHEAR DIR shows the direction of where the shear is coming from. The 700-500 MB RH is upper-level humidity values (above 60 is good). Rest aren't too important, self-explanatory AFAIK, or I don't know myself.
I'm happy to explain these if you have a question once, but I won't re-type it every time.
I know that came from the SHIPS model output and I understand what 80% of the lines in that output are, I'm talking more about why the 200 mb line being warm is a bad thing for tropical cyclones. What's an example of a ideal temperature?
Not 100% sure, but I know warm air aloft leads to stability and cool air aloft leads to instability.
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: DOLORES - Post-Tropical
Last advisory.
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015
Dolores has been without organized deep convection for 12 hours, and
the center is now more than 150 miles away from the remaining
shallow to moderate convection. Based on the lack of convective
organization, Dolores is now a post-tropical remnant low and this
will be the last NHC advisory. With even colder waters ahead,
the remnant low should gradually spin down and dissipate in 2 or 3
days offshore of southern California.
The initial motion is 335/14, as the cyclone has accelerated since
the previous advisory. Dolores should continue moving north-
northwestward around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge
and then turn northward and decelerate prior to dissipation. The
new NHC track forecast is along but faster than the previous one and
is close to the latest ECMWF and GFS solutions.
Moisture associated with Dolores is spreading over the southwestern
United States and will increase the possibility of heavy rains and
flash flooding during the next few days over portions of Arizona,
southern California, southern Nevada, and southwestern Utah. Please
refer to statements from your local National Weather Service office
at http://www.weather.gov for more information.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0300Z 25.6N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 19/1200Z 27.5N 119.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 20/0000Z 30.2N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 20/1200Z 32.1N 120.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/0000Z 33.3N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brennan
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015
Dolores has been without organized deep convection for 12 hours, and
the center is now more than 150 miles away from the remaining
shallow to moderate convection. Based on the lack of convective
organization, Dolores is now a post-tropical remnant low and this
will be the last NHC advisory. With even colder waters ahead,
the remnant low should gradually spin down and dissipate in 2 or 3
days offshore of southern California.
The initial motion is 335/14, as the cyclone has accelerated since
the previous advisory. Dolores should continue moving north-
northwestward around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge
and then turn northward and decelerate prior to dissipation. The
new NHC track forecast is along but faster than the previous one and
is close to the latest ECMWF and GFS solutions.
Moisture associated with Dolores is spreading over the southwestern
United States and will increase the possibility of heavy rains and
flash flooding during the next few days over portions of Arizona,
southern California, southern Nevada, and southwestern Utah. Please
refer to statements from your local National Weather Service office
at http://www.weather.gov for more information.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0300Z 25.6N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 19/1200Z 27.5N 119.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 20/0000Z 30.2N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 20/1200Z 32.1N 120.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/0000Z 33.3N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brennan
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CaliforniaResident
- Tropical Storm
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Delores may no longer be a tropical cyclone but she brought a lot of (very rare) weather fun to San Diego today: we set the all time record for the most rain in the entire month of July with today's totals. Rare widespread thunderstorms and cloud to ground lightning as well.
"July" is more like May for us as our summer SST and land temperatures usually peak in mid-September.
SST are now in the low to mid 70s off shore. By September, we could approach that elusive 80 F mark AND September is also the peak of the hurricane season.
Could there be a landfall on our shores sometime between mid September and mid October?
Disclaimer:I am not a meteorologist or a climate scientist; I am simply a weather enthusiast living in a place without much weather for the sake of my gf; my statements and predictions are based on my own speculations.
"July" is more like May for us as our summer SST and land temperatures usually peak in mid-September.
SST are now in the low to mid 70s off shore. By September, we could approach that elusive 80 F mark AND September is also the peak of the hurricane season.
Could there be a landfall on our shores sometime between mid September and mid October?
Disclaimer:I am not a meteorologist or a climate scientist; I am simply a weather enthusiast living in a place without much weather for the sake of my gf; my statements and predictions are based on my own speculations.
Last edited by CaliforniaResident on Sat Jul 18, 2015 11:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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