ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

93L INVEST 150717 0000 10.0N 35.5W ATL 25 1011




TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A westward-moving tropical wave located more than 1000 miles
west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is producing a large area
of cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions are expected
to be marginally conducive for some slow development of this
disturbance through the weekend, with upper-level winds becoming
less favorable early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Stewart

[OuterBanker]

Wow, 2 1/2 hrs since postings and not one comment. The first CV system of the season. Of course my chances of winning the lottery are better than 93l survival. It has to face the black plague of this years MDR.

[tolakram]

I did not see this coming at all.

[wxman57]

There isn't much to talk about. It's heading toward a large region of very high wind shear, so development chances will be quite low, maybe 5% or less. I'm thinking that the NHC forecasters are just looking for SOMETHING to do. Maybe it will bring a little rain to the islands of the eastern Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

There isn't much to talk about. It's heading toward a large region of very high wind shear, so development chances will be quite low, maybe 5% or less. I'm thinking that the NHC forecasters are just looking for SOMETHING to do. Maybe it will bring a little rain to the islands of the eastern Caribbean.

Yes bring it on. You know why I want it.

[gatorcane]

impressive convection with mid-level rotation evident, saved loop:



Upper-high sitting right over this invest = favorable conditions:

[SouthDadeFish]

If it does develop into a TC it won't last long. The TUTT is dominating the upper level flow across the W ATL. At least it's something to watch though!

[Hurricaneman]

It may have a better chance in about a week or so north of Puerto Rico as it heads WNW or NW as that area has had lower shear most of the year so this can't be completely discounted as of yet

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[NDG]

It will get shredded to pieces as it nears the eastern Caribbean, no doubt about it.

[Hurricaneman]

It will get shredded to pieces as it nears the eastern Caribbean, no doubt about it.

If it in some form can get north of the islands this may need to be watched as even with tropical waves in El Ninos they can and probably will form closer to land

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[MGC]

Not a bad looking wave. But, as many have pointed out, shear ahead captain!.....MGC

[Gustywind]

A 1012 low pressure is attached with 93L...


TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2015


A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ASSOCIATED WITH A 1012
MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 10N36W...MOVING W AT NEARLY 15-20
KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICT THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD AREA
OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT THAT ALONG WITH MIDDLE-LEVEL DIVERGENT
WIND FLOW SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 05N TO
14N BETWEEN 30W AND 42W.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A westward-moving tropical wave located more than 1000 miles
west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is producing disorganized
cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions could be
marginally conducive for some slow development of this disturbance
through the weekend before becoming less conducive early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Nimbus]

Mid level moisture is increasing.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... litE5.html

Forward speed of 20 knots would likely cause it remain just a wave and outrun the upper level high as forecast.

Every now and again one of these defies the odds and makes it through a lull in the persistent TUTT.

Maybe a 1 in 8 chance of a named storm later?

[wxman57]

I find it interesting that the NHC is saying it has a better chance of developing beyond 48 hrs once it moves into the high shear zone. Development chances look slim to none to me.

[Gustywind]

Healthy 93L continues westard...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015


A TROPICAL WAVE WAS RE-INTRODUCED TO THE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING.
THIS WAVE HAS AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 17N37W TO A 1011 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 10N37W. THESE FEATURES ARE INTERACTING WITH EACH
OTHER AND CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOW THE LOW DISSIPATING WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS LEAVING THE WAVE MOVING BY ITSELF ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND E CARIBBEAN. TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS A HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT MAINLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 03N-16N.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 03N-15N BETWEEN
29W-39W.

[cycloneye]

Is identified as a wave.

12z Best Track:

AL, 93, 2015071712, , BEST, 0, 107N, 384W, 25, 1011, WV

[cycloneye]

Low pressure and Tropical Wave are two separated entities. A very quiet thread and I understand why.

12z surface analysis.

[northjaxpro]

The shear will rip this system to pieces once it approaches or traverses across 50 degrees Longitude with the persistent TUTT presence in the Atlantic. Extremely slim chances for this system to develop.

[cycloneye]

Nothing to see here other than wait and see if the drought that some of the islands are going thru is at least aliviated.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A westward-moving tropical wave located more than 1000 miles
west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands is producing disorganized
cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions could be
marginally conducive for some slow development of this disturbance
through the weekend before becoming much less conducive early next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Forecaster Beven