EPAC: FELICIA - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

I have no idea what this crap invest is doing.

[Hurricane Jed]

Its not developing that's for sure!

[Yellow Evan]

A low pressure area centered about 450 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is moving toward the
northwest at about 5 to 10 mph. Shower activity associated with
this low is showing signs of organization but is limited at this
time. A tropical depression could form at any time before
Friday when the system is expected to move over cooler waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP992015 07/23/15 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 35 34 33 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 35 34 33 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 33 32 30 26 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 12 12 11 12 11 8 7 9 6 5 5 N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 0 -1 0 0 1 4 0 5 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 359 356 357 350 6 347 347 1 55 47 187 N/A N/A
SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.3 26.9 25.7 24.2 23.6 23.6 23.8 24.1 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 139 137 133 120 104 98 96 98 100 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 68 68 68 66 63 62 54 50 44 45 47 N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 12 12 10 9 8 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -31 -26 -22 -21 -27 -17 -25 -38 -54 -68 -75 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 59 43 24 5 -11 -13 -8 -27 -21 -17 10 N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -1 -3 -3 0 -1 0 2 0 6 2 9 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 766 736 715 711 691 663 754 812 901 985 1061 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 113.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 6 4 3 N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 8 6 5 1 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -14. -14.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. -2. -9. -19. -26. -31. -33. -34.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992015 INVEST 07/23/15 00 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[talkon]

Finally upgraded to 07E


000
WTPZ42 KNHC 230834
TCDEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072015
300 AM MDT THU JUL 23 2015

Deep convection associated with the area of low pressure several
hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula has become better organized tonight, with a curved
band wrapping around the southern semicircle of the circulation.
Based on the increased convective organization, the system is now
classified as a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is set to
30 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimate from SAB.

There is not much of an opportunity for the depression to
strengthen, with moderate northerly shear expected to persist until
the system crosses the 26C isotherm in about a day. As a result,
the intensity guidance shows little strengthening and the NHC
forecast follows this trend. However, it is possible that the
cyclone could briefly reach tropical storm status even though that
isn't explicitly forecast here. The cyclone should weaken to a
remnant low by 48 hours due to cold waters and a dry, stable
airmass. The low is forecast to dissipate by day 5.

The initial motion estimate is 330/08. The depression should
move northwestward around the southwestern periphery of the
subtropical ridge for the next 24 hours and then turn westward under
the influence of the low-level ridge as it becomes a shallow system.
The NHC track forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF
models through dissipation.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 18.0N 114.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 19.0N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 20.2N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 21.3N 117.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 22.1N 119.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/0600Z 22.5N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/0600Z 22.0N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 07, 201507230949, 30, AMSU, IP, , 1801N, 11409W, , 1, 26, 2, 1008, 2, MEAS, , , , , , , , , , , 2, , , E, CIRA, JAK, , , , , , , 1008, , NOAA19, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 2, storm center extrapolated from t=-12 and t=0 adeck
EP, 07, 201507231011, 30, SSMI, C, , 1870N, 11450W, , 3, , , , 3, , , , , , , , , , , , 3, , , , NHC, DPR, , , , , , , , , SSMI, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 3, PBO SBC/shear pattern
EP, 07, 201507231200, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1860N, 11450W, , 3, 35, 2, 1005, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, GR, I, 5, 2525 /////, , , GOES15, CSC, T,

EP, 07, 2015072312, , BEST, 0, 187N, 1145W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 40, 50, 20, 1009, 180, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SEVEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 011,

Felicia?

[talkon]

07E FELICIA 150723 1200 18.7N 114.5W EPAC 35 1004

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072015
900 AM MDT THU JUL 23 2015

Conventional satellite imagery and a couple of recent microwave
overpasses show that spiral banding has improved during the past
several hours, particularly over the eastern and southern portions
of the cyclone. Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB
are T2.5/35 kt, supporting an upgrade of the system to a tropical
storm. Although Felicia has about 24 hours or so before
moving over cooler water and into a more stable environment,
persistent northerly shear should impede any significant
strengthening. The statistical-dynamical intensity guidance all
show Felicia weakening to a remnant low in 48 hours, and this is
reflected in the official forecast. Global models subsequently
indicate the cyclone dissipating or opening up into a trough in 4
days or less.

The initial motion is estimated to be 320/11. Felicia is forecast
to continue moving northwestward within the mid-level flow on the
southwestern side of the subtropical ridge during the next 24-36
hours. Afterward, the dynamical models show Felicia gradually
turning westward as the system degenerates into a remnant low and is
steered by the low-level tradewind flow. The NHC forecast is
basically an update of the first advisory, and closely follows the
GFEX and TVCN multi-model consensus forecasts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 19.1N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 20.1N 115.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 21.2N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 22.0N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 22.6N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/1200Z 22.8N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[Yellow Evan]

A. 07E (NONAME)

B. 23/1730Z

C. 19.5N

D. 114.7W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T2.0/2.5/W0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...LLCC HAS MOVED TO BE PARTLY EXPOSED TO NORTH OF CLOUDY
SHIELD AND THEREFOR DT IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER OVER PAST 6HRS. DT-2.0 BASED
ON CIRCULATION ON EDGE OF LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OF SHEAR MATRIX. MET AND
PAT ALSO 2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 07, 2015072318, , BEST, 0, 195N, 1154W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 40, 50, 30, 1010, 150, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FELICIA, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 011,

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072015
200 PM PDT THU JUL 23 2015

Felicia is apparently experiencing a less conducive environment
sooner than anticipated. The coverage and intensity of deep
convection has diminished since earlier today, and the center of the
storm has become exposed to the northwest of the main area of
thunderstorms. The current intensity is held at 35 kt in
accordance with the Dvorak rules. Over the next day or two, the
cyclone is expected to move over cooler waters, and into a more
stable air mass. The latter is evidenced by the field of
stratocumulus seen to its northwest. Weakening to a depression is
likely to occur tomorrow, and Felicia should become a remnant low on
Saturday. If current trends continue, however, the system could
weaken sooner than shown here. The NHC intensity forecast is close
to the SHIPS guidance.

The motion, 310/11 kt, is about the same as before. Over the next
day or so, Felicia should be be steered by the flow on
the southwestern periphery of a mid-tropospheric anticyclone
centered over the Southern Plains of the United States.
Thereafter, the increasingly shallow vortex should move
west-northwestward to westward within the lower-tropospheric flow.
The official track forecast is similar to, but a little faster
than, the previous forecast. This is slightly slower than the
latest consensus model guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 19.8N 115.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 20.7N 116.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 21.7N 118.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 22.4N 120.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 22.8N 121.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/1800Z 23.0N 124.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Yellow Evan]

Might be TS winds on the south side of the LLC.

[WeatherGuesser]

Posted: Sun Jul 19, 2015 10:14 am


6z GFS now makes this a hurricane finally. 0z ECMWF brings this to 973 mbar (Cat 2-3). Liking it's chances at making a run at YET another major.

Or not.

[Yellow Evan]

Posted: Sun Jul 19, 2015 10:14 am


6z GFS now makes this a hurricane finally. 0z ECMWF brings this to 973 mbar (Cat 2-3). Liking it's chances at making a run at YET another major.

Or not.

Boy I was wrong there.

The storm didn't get its act together quick enough (was suppose to be a low-end TS when it met the shear) and the forecast track shifted north over cooler waters, and when SST's updated Monday to account for upwelling of Dolores, the guidance went through the toilet.

I'm so glad this was able to get named though.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 07, 2015072400, , BEST, 0, 201N, 1162W, 30, 1005, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FELICIA, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 011,

[Yellow Evan]

The storm looked a very borderline TS. I suppose though they may be stronger winds to the south of the LLC, which is now fully exposed as of a few hours, ago but now the LLC has become less defined. It might be worth keeping as 35 knots though since we have three ASCAT/RapidScat passes tonight. While 2015 has been an all or nothing season, El Nino years are like that. They have their fair share of fails. 1997 had a bunch. 1982 had a lot of TD's that were in reality, likely low end TS's by modern day standards.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072015
800 PM PDT THU JUL 23 2015

Satellite images indicate that Felicia is weakening. The low-level
center of the system is exposed and the associated deep convection
is confined to the southeastern quadrant of the circulation. The
initial wind speed is lowered to 30 kt based on a blend of the
Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT. This
makes Felicia a tropical depression. Since the depression is
already in a dry and stable airmass and will soon be over cool
water, continued weakening is predicted. The official forecast
shows Felicia becoming a remnant low by 36 hours, but this could
occur even sooner. The remnant low is expected to dissipate in 3
to 4 days.

Felicia is moving northwestward at about 11 kt. The depression is
expected to turn to the west-northwest on Friday and to the west on
Saturday steered by the low-level flow. The official track forecast
is similar to the previous one and in best agreement with a
consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 20.4N 116.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 21.2N 117.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 22.0N 119.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 22.6N 121.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 26/0000Z 22.8N 122.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/0000Z 23.0N 125.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Yellow Evan]

Downgraded is justifiable and obvious based on satellite. If it needs to get changed later, so be it, but AFIAK this is at most 25-30 knots.

[Yellow Evan]

Not waiting on ASCAT.

011,
EP, 07, 2015072406, , BEST, 0, 209N, 1170W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FELICIA, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 011,

Of course, Clarion Island obs are down. Just when we need you the most.

[xxxhumbertoxxx]

Bye Felicia!