WPAC: 12W - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

New invest near Luzon.

[Alyono]

officially a TD

[euro6208]

What a hard struggling life this new TD will encounter...

WDPN31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 12W (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 212
NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED BUT PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 230421Z GPM 36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS IMPROVED TIGHTLY CURVED, BUT BROKEN, SHALLOW BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC IN MSI AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE GPM IMAGE
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON
AN ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS AND
SUPPORTED BY A PREVIOUS ASCAT PASS SHOWING 25 KNOT WINDS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT DISPLACING THE LIMITED CONVECTION TO THE
WEST, OVER LAND, WITH WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. IN ADDITION, WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DRY AIR
SURROUNDING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. TD 12W IS TRACKING
WITH THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL CAUSED BY
AN EXTENSION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 12W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE STR. MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
PROHIBIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE DEPRESSION AS IT GAINS
LATITUDE. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TO THE
NORTHEAST AS IT IS INFLUENCED BY TY 01C PASSING TO THE NORTH. THE
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH TY 01C WILL CAUSE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER TD 12W, CAUSING IT TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIMITED DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN DECENT OVERALL AGREEMENT ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH
MINIMAL, IF ANY, INTENSIFICATION FORECASTED. DUE TO THE LIMITED
GUIDANCE AND THE EXPECTED INTERACTION BETWEEN TY 01C AND TD 12W,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TXPQ29 KNES 230933
TCSWNP

A. 12W (NONAME)

B. 23/0832Z

C. 17.3N

D. 123.1E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/GMI/SSMI/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS .3 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.5.
MET AND PT = 1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

23/0421Z 17.2N 123.3E GMI
23/0607Z 17.3N 122.9E SSMI
23/0815Z 17.5N 123.0E SSMIS


...KIBLER

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 230915

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (E OF PHILIPPINES)

B. 23/0832Z

C. 17.43N

D. 123.09E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .25 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. PT AGREES. FT LEFT AT 1.5 DUE
TO CONSTRAINTS PROHIBITING THE LOWERING OF FT DURING THE FIRST
48 HOURS OF DEVELOPMENT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
23/0421Z 16.95N 123.23E GPMI
23/0544Z 17.45N 123.00E MMHS
23/0607Z 17.48N 123.08E SSMI


UEHARA

[euro6208]

This is probrably one of the ugliest TD upgrade from JTWC i've ever seen...

[euro6208]

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 16.6N 123.0E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 23.07.2015 16.6N 123.0E WEAK

12UTC 23.07.2015 17.6N 122.5E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 24.07.2015 17.6N 123.0E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 24.07.2015 17.3N 124.0E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 25.07.2015 18.0N 125.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 25.07.2015 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

[Yellow Evan]

Wow, this thing made it. Looks messy.

[wxman57]

Looks like it's already dead.

[Yellow Evan]

May have briefly been a 25 knot TD.

[Alyono]

This is a tropical storm

http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/asca ... Bds244.png

[Yellow Evan]

Agreed it's probs a TS now. Likely on 35 knts since the TS winds in ASCAT are only a small area, so it's unlikely there are higher winds.

[Alyono]

I see JTWC is not even considering the ASCAT data. They insist this is a dissipating depression

[Yellow Evan]

I see JTWC is not even considering the ASCAT data. They insist this is a dissipating depression

They obviously have no idea what ASCAT is.

They did this with Linfa, Chan-hom, and Nangka.

[euro6208]

I see JTWC is not even considering the ASCAT data. They insist this is a dissipating depression

They obviously have no idea what ASCAT is.

They did this with Linfa, Chan-hom, and Nangka.

Upgraded now...12th TS of the season!

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (TWELVE) WARNING NR
05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED BUT WELL DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LIMITED CONVECTION ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. FLARING CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG THE
EASTERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY, WITH THE MAJORITY BEING SHEARED TO
THE WEST DUE TO PERSISTENT 20 TO 25 KNOT NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). A 240551Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE FURTHER SHOWS
TIGHT SHALLOW BANDING WITH LIMITED CONVECTION. A 240100Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWED A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLCC WITH 35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY WITH LIGHTER WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. THIS SCATTEROMETER PASS SUPPORTS THE INCREASE IN
CURRENT INTENSITY TO 40 KNOTS, EVEN THOUGH AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED DUE TO THE LACK OF CONVECTION. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN MSI AND THE SSMI IMAGE WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO THE
HIGH VWS AND WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WHICH RESULTS IN THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. TS 12W IS TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG THE
LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SCATTEROMETER PASS.
B. TS 12W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST TO NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE EXTENSION OF THE STEERING RIDGE THROUGH TAU 24. MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PROHIBIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF
THE CYCLONE AS IT GAINS LATITUDE. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO ACCELERATE POLEWARD AS IT IS INFLUENCED BY TY 01C PASSING
TO THE NORTH. THE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH TY 01C WILL CAUSE
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER TS 12W. THIS
WILL LEAD TO ITS DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO TY 01C'S PASSAGE TO THE NORTH AND THE RE-
ORIENTATION OF THE STEERING RIDGE. DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Still a TD according to JMA...

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (TWELVE) WARNING NR
06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION SURROUNDING A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
OUTFLOW BANDS FROM TY 01C APPROACHING TS 12W FROM THE NORTHEAST,
BEGINNING THEIR INTERACTION. A 240951Z CORIOLIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS A TIGHT WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING IN
FROM THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM
THE LLCC IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGE AND SUPPORTED BY A PGTW SATELLITE
FIX WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KNOTS
BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE SYSTEM'S
STRUCTURE. TS 12W IS TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD WITHIN STRONG LOW TO
MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SCATTEROMETER PASS.
B. TS 12W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST AND THEN TURN
NORTHEASTWARD AS THE EXTENSION OF THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST BUILDS IN THROUGH TAU 24. MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL PROHIBIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE CYCLONE AS
IT GAINS LATITUDE. IN ADDITION, INCREASED VWS AND SUBSIDENCE CAUSED
BY THE INTERACTION WITH TY 01C WITH FURTHER DETERIORATE THE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE POLEWARD AS
ITS TRACK IS INFLUENCED BY TY 01C PASSING TO THE NORTH. TS 12W WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE POOR ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS, LEADING TO
ITS DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY DUE
TO TY 01C PASSING TO THE NORTH. DUE TO THE CONTINUED MODEL SPREAD,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 JUL 2015 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 17:42:01 N Lon : 124:51:05 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.3 /1005.9mb/ 33.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.3 2.5 2.5

Center Temp : +16.2C Cloud Region Temp : -22.7C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.11^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 31.0 degrees

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (TWELVE) WARNING NR
07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 303 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING, DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS)
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). DESPITE THE LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION, A 241823Z SSMI 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS SHALLOW
CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER, THEREFORE THERE
IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT TRACK MOTION.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE OUTFLOW BANDS FROM TY 01C
APPROACHING TS 12W FROM THE NORTHEAST, BEGINNING THEIR INTERACTION.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA
AND THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. TS 12W IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STR TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 12W IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 550 NM FROM TY 01C, WHICH
HAS LED TO WEAK DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION; HOWEVER, AS TY 01C TURNS
POLEWARD THIS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE. THEREAFTER, TS 12W WILL
ACCELERATE POLEWARD. MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PROHIBIT
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE CYCLONE AS IT GAINS LATITUDE. IN
ADDITION, INCREASED VWS AND SUBSIDENCE CAUSED BY THE INTERACTION
WITH TY 01C WILL FURTHER DETERIORATE THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. TS
12W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE POOR ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS,
LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO TY 01C PASSING TO THE NORTH. DUE TO THE CONTINUED
MODEL SPREAD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN