SPAC: 01F - Tropical Depression (JTWC: 01P)

[jaguarjace]

91P INVEST 150729 0000 5.8S 163.9E SHEM 20 1007

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Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jul 30/0910 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 01F CENTRE [1003HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 5.0S 167.0E
AT 300600UTC. SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR.

ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHLY IMPROVED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION
REMAINS PERSISTENT AROUND LLCC. SYSTEM LIES TO THE NORTH OF AN UPPER
RIDGE IN A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST IS AROUND 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
WESTWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

[jaguarjace]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jul 31/2318 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 01F CENTRE [1002HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 8.7S 168.5E
AT 312100UTC. SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR.

ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHLY IMPROVED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT AROUND LLCC. SYSTEM LIES TO THE NORTH
OF AN UPPER DIFFLUENT RIDGE IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SST
IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD01F IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTH BY
A NORTHERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW TO AN AREA OF INCREASING SHEAR.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
SOUTHWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

[jaguarjace]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Aug 01/0928 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01F CENTRE [1000HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 10.3S 169.9E
AT 010600UTC. SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR.

ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHLY IMPROVED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT EAST OF SUPPOSED LLCC. SYSTEM LIES TO
THE NORTH OF AN UPPER DIFFLUENT RIDGE IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SST
IS AROUND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
SOUTHWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

[jaguarjace]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.1S 170.4E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0S 171.5E, APPROXIMATELY 530 NM NORTHWEST OF
NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH. A 011716Z SSMIS 89GHZ MICROWAVE PARTIAL
IMAGE SHOWS ELONGATED LOW REFLECTIVE BANDING WITH THE BULK OF
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND POLEWARD VENTING ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EAST OF AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION
SEEN IN THE EIR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[Alyono]

based upon Dvorak, it is a cyclone now

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WTPS21 PGTW 020830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.4S 171.4E TO 13.2S 174.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
020800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.2S
171.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.3S
171.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2S 171.9E, APPROXIMATELY 505 NM
NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING MOST OF THE LLCC. A
020318Z SSMI 37 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LLCC. A 011904Z RAPIDSCAT
IMAGE SHOWED EXTENSIVE GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM, ENHANCED BY THE STRONG GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR NEW ZEALAND. RAPIDSCAT
CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAKER, 15 TO 25 KNOT WINDS, OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND POLEWARD
VENTING ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF
AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
030830Z.//
NNNN

[jaguarjace]

TXPS27 KNES 021212
TCSWSP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91P)

B. 02/1132Z

C. 11.9S

D. 172.2E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T2.0/2.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM LOOKS STRONGER THAN IT IS BASED ON MW IMAGERY
DUE TO BURSTING CONVECTION NEAR CENTER. DT=2.0 BASED ON JUST OVER 3/10
BANDING. MET=2.0 AND PAT=2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SWANSON

[wxman57]

ASCAT indicates at least 50kt winds. Meanwhile, Fiji RSMC says a moderate to low chance of TC development...

[jaguarjace]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Aug 04/0924 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01F CENTRE [1002HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 10.9S 171.0E
AT 040600UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR
THE LLCC 12 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED
ELSEWHERE. SST IS AROUND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
SOUTHWESTWARDS.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

[jaguarjace]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF 01P) HAS PERSISTED
NEAR 10.4S 170.6E, APPROXIMATELY 458 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT
VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXPOSED LLCC. A 040949Z ASCAT PASS
SHOWS A 15 TO 20 KNOT CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER 35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN
A LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VWS AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AND IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

[wxman57]

An ASCAT image from a few hours ago indicates this is a tropical storm, not a disturbance. Fiji's tropical cyclone outlook leaves something to be desired:

Wednesday 05th August
The probability that TD01F is expected to form into a Tropical Cyclone is VERY LOW.

In addition, they place the disturbance at 11S/173E. They better look again...