EPAC: HILDA- Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Can someone explain to me how Guillermo went NW for the most part while having an exposed LLC? Weren't the low level steering currents east to west as well?

I don't think Guilermo's LLC and MLC were decoupled, while Hilda's should decouple if it hasn't done so already.

[Yellow Evan]

Regardless on whether this is still a TC by the time it reaches Hawaii, the affects will pretty much be the same. Flooding still a major threat here.

I'm worried about the cry wolf affect. This is going to be the third storm in a row. All the media outlets in Hawaii ate getting bashed by users in the comment section thinking the media is publishing articles about storms for advertisement money.

Cry wolf affect is an issue since Hawaii has lots of near-misses (storms can either go north, south, east or west of the island, or hit it). And I don't vblame the media for publishing articles about the storms since this storm, Guillermo, Ana, and Julio were all legitimate threats to Hawaii, and any slight shifts could have brought any of the aforementioned storms over Hawaii. Part of the problem is that our track forecasts IMO are simply not good enough yet.

[WeatherGuesser]

Goes back to the bit about a tiny speck in a very big ocean and the chances of any thing hitting more or less by accident.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

It's important to note that there could still be damaging high wind gusts at higher elevations. With some rain soaking the ground and old growth trees around where people live you could have people killed or seriously injured by falling trees. And there is the flash flood threat potential too. I don't know how much it takes in valleys in that area. I don't know how the mountains might contribute as well to increasing the rainfall totals on some sides. Pulses of convection could continue to fire at the center and if the LLC goes south of the islands, moisture would be drawn across the chain, rather than the previous storm whose convection was drawn yet further away.

And of course as always, rip currents. People should know to swim perpendicular to the direction the current takes them and not fight the current. Get out of the current that way and then swim back to shore. Always swim with a friend if you are absolutely going to go swimming. A friend should also be on the beach too with a cell phone, especially in an area without a lifeguard.

Code: Select all

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[tolakram]

Time sensitive live loop. EPAC storms and their dramatic demise.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=16&lon=-150&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=95&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102015
500 PM HST TUE AUG 11 2015

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
OF HILDA IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH IS
NOW WELL DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE WESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR HAS WON THE BATTLE...AND IS CURRENTLY ESTIMATED TO BE 38
KNOTS AT 260 DEGREES BY UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS. GIVEN THE POOR
SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF HILDA...IT COMES AS NO SURPRISE THAT THE
LATEST SATELLITE FIXES FROM SAB...PHFO AND JTWC HAVE WEAKENED THE
SYSTEM AS WELL. THE LATEST DATA T NUMBERS WERE 3.5/55 KNOTS AT ALL
THREE AGENCIES...SO THIS WAS USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY WITH THE
03Z ADVISORY. TRACKING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER VIA VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE INITIAL MOTION VECTOR WAS SET AT 270
DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS.

THE TRACK OF HILDA WAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK
WITH THIS ADVISORY...AND REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE INITIAL MOTION
OF THE SYSTEM OFF TO THE WEST...LIKELY ATTRIBUTED TO THE
INITIALIZATION WHICH IS BASED ON A NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 18 TO 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST DISREGARDED THE INITIAL NORTHWEST MOTION SEEN IN THE
MAJORITY OF THE MODELS...AND TAKES THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WESTWARD AT A
SPEED CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.

PERSISTENT STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINING IN PLACE
OVER HILDA...ALONG WITH THE ENTRAINMENT OF VERY DRY MID/UPPER
LEVEL AIR AS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SHOULD CONTINUE TO
STEADILY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH ICON...AND CALLS FOR
HILDA TO WEAKEN INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY...AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE U.S. AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS HAVE DEPARTED ON THERE WAY TO
FLY ANOTHER MISSION INTO HILDA THIS EVENING. THE VALUABLE DATA FROM
THIS MISSION SHOULD HELP REFINE OUR FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECASTS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 17.0N 152.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 17.1N 152.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 17.2N 153.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 17.2N 154.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 17.2N 155.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 17.0N 158.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA/POWELL

[Kingarabian]

She's holding strong. 994mb found.

[Kingarabian]

Think the center is moving due west.

Yeah looks like it. Also looks like it's not even moving.

On water vapor, its moisture has almost taken away all that dry air it had in front of it.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102015
1100 PM HST TUE AUG 11 2015

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PULSING WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF
HILDA...WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BRIEFLY EXPOSED EARLIER
TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. US AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WOBBLED
EASTWARD AS DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPED IN THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT CAME IN AT 50
KT...WHILE WIND RADII WERE FOUND TO BE SMALLER THAN EARLIER
FORECASTS. THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS LOWERED TO 50 KT...AND
THE WIND RADII WERE DECREASED.

HILDA PERFORMED A LOOPING WOBBLE THIS EVENING...CAUSING THE CENTER
TO BRIEFLY SHIFT EASTWARD. A SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION SHOULD BE
UNDERWAY WITH THE INITIAL MOTION SET AT 290/2 KT. HILDA IS IN A
REGION OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE REGION IS PRODUCING WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT...WHILE A RATHER
STRONG SURFACE HIGH FAR TO THE NORTH IS PRODUCING A SHALLOW LAYER
OF EASTERLY WINDS. AS A RESULT...HILDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO THEN TURN TOWARD
THE WEST AND ACCELERATE AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHALLOW
AND STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE TRACK FORECAST
WAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY AND RUNS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. ACCORDING TO CIMSS...VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS AROUND 37 KT FROM THE WEST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PRODUCING THIS WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AND HILDA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THE FORECAST CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE ICON AND IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
HILDA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON THURSDAY AND
BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM TRACK...THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 17.2N 151.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 17.3N 152.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 17.4N 152.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 17.5N 153.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 17.4N 154.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/0600Z 17.0N 158.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER WROE

[Chris_in_Tampa]

TROPICAL STORM HILDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102015
200 AM HST WED AUG 12 2015

...TROPICAL STORM HILDA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE TO THE
NORTHWEST SLOWLY...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAWAII COUNTY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 151.8W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HILDA.


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 151.8 WEST. HILDA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. THIS SLOW
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN FORWARD MOTION AND A TURN TO THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH HILDA EXPECTED TO BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM HILDA WILL PRODUCE
LARGE AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING SURF ALONG EAST AND SOUTHEAST
FACING SHORES OF PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.

RAINFALL...HILDA MAY PRODUCE 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH
MAXIMUM VALUES OF UP TO 18 INCHES POSSIBLE...ALONG AND NORTH OF ITS
PATH. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO SATURDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER WROE

[tolakram]

Still hanging on.

Live visible

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=17&lon=-153&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=95&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10

[Kingarabian]

Issued at 800 AM HST WED AUG 12 2015
SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
Location: 17.3N 151.7W
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
Maximum sustained winds: 45 MPH...75 KM/H
Present movement: NNW or 335 degrees AT 1 MPH...4 KM/H
Minimum central pressure: 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

Hawaii county needs to keep a close eye.

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA45 PHFO 121439
TCDCP5

TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102015
500 AM HST WED AUG 12 2015

PULSING DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF HILDA
AS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PERSISTS. DATA FROM THE LAST PASSES
THROUGH HILDA BY U.S. AIR FORCE WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
SUPPORTED AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
VALUES FROM HFO AND JTWC CAME IN AT 3.0/45 KT...AND SAB HAD A 2.5/35
KT...WITH CIMSS ADT SUGGESTING 37 KT. A BLEND OF THESE VALUES IS IN
LINE WITH THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA...AND GIVEN THE PULSING OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION AND CONTINUED PARTIAL EXPOSURE OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT. THE
RECONNAISSANCE DATA...A 0756 UTC ASCAT PASS...AND NEARBY NOAA BUOY
51004 OBSERVATIONS WERE USED TO FINE TUNE A REDUCTION IN THE WIND
AND SEAS RADII.

HILDA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING UNDER PERSISTENT VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THE LATEST CIMSS ANALYSIS ESTIMATES THE WESTERLY WIND
SHEAR TO BE NEARLY 40 KT...AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PRODUCING THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS ICON CLOSELY AND
IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WEAKENING TREND THAN SHIPS AND LGEM.
HILDA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR
THURSDAY AND DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

HILDA WILL REMAIN IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT FOR THE SHORT
TERM...ENSURING A SLOW MOVEMENT AS IT NEARS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION IS PRODUCING WESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT...WHILE A RATHER STRONG SURFACE HIGH FAR NORTH OF
HAWAII IS GENERATING A SHALLOW LAYER OF EASTERLY WINDS. U.S. AIR
FORCE WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FOUND HILDA MAKING A SLOW DRIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...OR 305 DEGREES...AT 4 KT. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST
AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS HILDA
BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND
FLOW. THE FORECAST TRACK CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PAST ADVISORY AND
RUNS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 17.5N 152.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 17.6N 152.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 17.6N 153.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 17.5N 154.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 17.4N 156.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER WROE

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA45 PHFO 122052
TCDCP5

TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102015
1100 AM HST WED AUG 12 2015

FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS...DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PULSING OVER
AND JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER WITH A NEW BURST APPEARING TO
START JUST BEFORE BULLETIN TIME. DATA FROM A U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE MISSION FOUND RISING CENTER PRESSURES...
MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS AT 850 MB OF 42 KT AND MAXIMUM SFMR WINDS
AT 43 KT. BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
HILDA WILL BE HELD AT 40 KT. THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD CENTER IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BECOME EXPOSED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...CENTER FIXES BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA WERE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF THE SATELLITE BASED POSITIONS. THE INITIAL POSITION FOR THIS
PACKAGE HAS BEEN BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT CENTER POSITION AROUND 1800
UTC RATHER THAN THE SATELLITE-BASED CLOUD FEATURES.

HILDA CONTINUES TO SURVIVE IN THE FACE OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...40 KT ON THE CIMSS 1800 UTC ANALYSIS...BUT IS WEAKENING
OVER THE LONG TERM. STRONG SHEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
OVER THE SYSTEM WITH OBJECTIVE AIDS SHOWING A CONTINUED WEAKENING
TREND. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW HILDA OPENING UP TO A SURFACE
TROUGH SOME TIME LATE FRIDAY. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED
WEAKENING WITH HILDA BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT THEN
DEGENERATING TO A REMNANT LOW FRIDAY MORNING OR POSSIBLY SOONER.
THIS IS SLOWER THAN SHIPS AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

HILDA REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING CURRENT WHICH WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE SHORT TERM. AS HILDA WEAKENS AND BECOMES AN INCREASINGLY
SHALLOW SYSTEM...STEERING SHOULD BECOME BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL
TRADE WIND FLOW TOWARD THE WEST. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS NORTH OF THE TRUSTED OBJECTIVE AIDS. A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WAS USED WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE
GLOBAL MODELS.

DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM AND HILDA/S CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE BIG ISLAND...TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL REMAIN
POSTED FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII FOR NOW. A DECISION TO DROP THE
WATCH MAY OCCUR LATER TODAY IF HILDA WEAKENS FURTHER OR SHOWS A
PERSISTENT WESTWARD MOTION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 17.4N 152.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 17.6N 152.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 17.6N 153.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 17.5N 154.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 17.1N 157.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA

[Chris_in_Tampa]

WTPA45 PHFO 130300
TCDCP5

TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102015
500 PM HST WED AUG 12 2015

DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE UP NORTHEAST OF THE FULLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CLOUD CENTER. THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE MOVING
SOLIDLY WESTWARD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...ALBEIT SLOWLY.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 35 KT FROM PHFO AND SAB...AND
30 KT FROM JTWC. CIMSS ADT INDICATED 41 KT. FURTHERMORE...BUOY 51004
RECENTLY REPORTED A PEAK WIND OF 41 KT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.
BASED ON THE ADT ESTIMATE AND THE BUOY PEAK WIND IN 10 TO 12 FT
SEAS...THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN CONSERVATIVELY HELD AT 40 KT
FOR THIS PACKAGE.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR OVER A DAY...HILDA CONTINUES TO SURVIVE IN
THE FACE OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...38 KT ON THE CIMSS 0000 UTC
ANALYSIS. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND OBJECTIVE AIDS CONTINUE TO SHOW
WEAKENING WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING HILDA BECOMING A SURFACE
TROUGH SOME TIME LATE FRIDAY. THE FORECAST DROPS HILDA TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ON THURSDAY...THEN DEGENERATING TO A REMNANT LOW FRIDAY
OR POSSIBLY SOONER.

HILDA APPEARS TO FINALLY BE MOVING WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND
FLOW TOWARD THE WEST. THIS WESTWARD TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...THEN TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. THIS
TRACK IS NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS AND IS CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPEED BEYOND 24
HOURS.

HILDA/S SMALL TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII...EXPECTED WESTWARD
MOVEMENT AND FORECASTED WEAKENING HAS RESULTED IN THE DECISION TO
DROP THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE BIG ISLAND.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 17.2N 152.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 17.3N 153.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 17.3N 154.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 16.9N 156.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 16.6N 158.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA/JELSEMA

[wxman57]

Hilda is now a naked swirl of low clouds displaced a couple hundred miles WSW of some weak squalls. It's a remnant low. Doesn't qualify as a TS or TD now. Bones has seen enough...

[Kingarabian]

Hilda is now a naked swirl of low clouds displaced a couple hundred miles WSW of some weak squalls. It's a remnant low. Doesn't qualify as a TS or TD now. Bones has seen enough...

Never seen you use it on an EPAC/CPAC storm!

[tolakram]

Live visible. Moving south of west?

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=17&lon=-153&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=85&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10

[srainhoutx]

Hilda is now a naked swirl of low clouds displaced a couple hundred miles WSW of some weak squalls. It's a remnant low. Doesn't qualify as a TS or TD now. Bones has seen enough...

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/itsdeadjim.jpg

So has the 53rd Weather Recon crew that has been on station at Hickam Field since August 1st with Guillermo and then Hilda. They are scheduled to transition back to Travis AFB in California this weekend and on back home to Biloxi.

[Yellow Evan]

CPHC likes to wait 24 hours to see if convection re-develops generally. They'll keep this on for a while.