WPAC: MOLAVE - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR
06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 84 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI CONTINUES TO SHOW A PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON THE MSI WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS
IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AND AN OLDER 080045Z SHOWING 35 TO 40 KNOTS
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
TUTT CELL TO THE WEST IS CAUSING STRONG VWS AND SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STR TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 15W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING STR THROUGH TAU 24. AFTERWARD, AN
EXPECTED DEEPENING TROUGH LOCATED TO THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN THE STR,
ALLOWING TS MOLAVE TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL AS THE TUTT
CELL REMAINS, ALLOWING ONLY MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND TAU 24,
VWS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL INCREASE,
SUPPORTING INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 15W WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND WILL BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY DUE TO
INCREASED VWS AND INTERACTION WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TS 15W
SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND ALL MEMBERS
INDICATE A RE-CURVE. HOWEVER, DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST INTENSITY AND THE TIMING OF THE RE-CURVE, THERE IS OVERALL
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

EURO brings this down to 980 mb...

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR
10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 453 NM
SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN PARTIALLY-EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
MSI AND A 090500Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT
OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND REFLECTS THE
SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE VWS AND SUPPRESSED OUTFLOW DUE TO THE TUTT CELL THAT IS
LOCATED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STR TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 15W WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. MARGINAL CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST, ALLOWING ONLY MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND TAU 24, VWS
IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL INCREASE,
SUPPORTING MODERATE INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS BY TAU 48.
BY TAU 72, TS 15W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS MOLAVE WILL ERODE QUICKLY DUE TO
INCREASED VWS AND INTERACTION WITH THE COLD BAROCLINIC ZONE. TS 15W
SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT GAINS
FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN A TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Looking better...

[euro6208]

JMA, NAVGEM, CMC, EURO. and GFS makes this a typhoon with EURO bottoming it out at 962 mb as it recurves...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

WHAT??

WTPN32 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 011
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 15W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 28.6N 140.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 28.6N 140.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 30.2N 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 31.4N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 29.0N 140.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM
SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED OVER AN
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 090826Z WINDSAT INDICATES
A WELL-DEFINED 20 TO 25 KNOT CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER
45 TO 50 KNOT WINDS ABOUT 60 NM FROM THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
BASED ON DETERIORATED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND CURRENT ASSESSMENT,
THIS SYSTEM IS CLASSIFIED AS SUBTROPICAL. THEREFORE, THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z
IS 14 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING.//
NNNN

[wxman57]

Looks quite pathetic, to me. Barely qualifies as a TS organizational-wise. Very little convection and will soon be accelerating off to the NE. At least it doesn't look like a giant occluded cold front today.

[Alyono]

starting to intensify as forecast

[euro6208]

WTPN32 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 011
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 15W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 28.6N 140.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 28.6N 140.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 30.2N 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 31.4N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 29.0N 140.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM
SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED OVER AN
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 090826Z WINDSAT INDICATES
A WELL-DEFINED 20 TO 25 KNOT CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER
45 TO 50 KNOT WINDS ABOUT 60 NM FROM THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
BASED ON DETERIORATED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND CURRENT ASSESSMENT,
THIS SYSTEM IS CLASSIFIED AS SUBTROPICAL. THEREFORE, THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z
IS 14 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

While certainly not strong, Molave looks to be of lower-end tropical storm strength to me and something the JTWC should still be issuing advisories on. Only a small deviation from its current position will put it back in the high shear, but for now, Molave is actually fairly sheltered beneath the axis of the Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough. I guess one could make the argument that by being located below the TUTT, Molave isn't 100% purely tropical, but this system has been tangled with upper level features for all its life so I'm not sure what the big difference is now. WindSat from 0808Z doesn't show the sprawling wind field typically associated with subtropical cyclones. I guess I'm just a little stumped as to why JTWC stopped issuing advisories. JMA has the right idea currently in my opinion.

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR
12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 276 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A FULLY CONCEALED LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON THE MSI AND A 110354Z N-19 SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AS 45 KNOTS BASED ON
AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN
A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VWS WHICH IS OFFSET BY
FAVORABLE SSTS. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE SYSTEM IS BEING CONSIDERED TROPICAL AS THE MAIN CONVECTION
IS EQUATORWARD OF THE LLCC AND THE 110358Z AMSU-B CROSS SECTION
ANALYSIS SHOWING A NEAR WARM-CORE CENTER. AS SUCH, JTWC HAS
REINSTITUTED WARNINGS.
B. TS 15W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST, UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF BOTH THE STR TO THE SOUTH AND THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES WHICH ARE TRACKING AROUND 40 DEGREES. EXPECT THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 48 AS SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT. BEYOND THAT, EXPECT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO BE ABSORBED INTO THE WESTERLIES, BECOMING SLIGHTLY BAROCLINIC. BY
TAU 96, EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO BE FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES,
COMPLETING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. NUMERICAL DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN11 PGTW 110629

A. TROPICAL STORM 15W (MOLAVE)

B. 11/0532Z

C. 32.20N

D. 143.60E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.5/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG 10
SPIRAL, YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT ARE UNAVAILABLE. DBO
DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 AUG 2015 Time : 083000 UTC
Lat : 32:22:12 N Lon : 144:18:28 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 / 987.7mb/ 45.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.0 3.0

Center Temp : -72.0C Cloud Region Temp : -65.0C

Scene Type : USER REINITIALIZED CLASSIFICATION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 52km
- Environmental MSLP : 1006mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 37.6 degrees

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (MOLAVE) WARNING
NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 292 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR IMAGERY
SHOWS CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A FULLY CONCEALED LLCC. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 111100Z ASCAT MICROWAVE BULLS-EYE
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 45
KNOTS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AS WELL AS THE ASCAT IMAGE. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 15 TO 25 KNOTS OF VWS WHICH IS OFFSET BY
POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO THE WESTERLIES AS WELL AS SOME EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, FAVORABLE SSTS REMAIN IVO TS 15W. THE
CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGING.
B. THE FORECAST TRACK FOR TS 15W WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST
THOUGH TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE STEERING BY THE STR TO
THE SOUTH AND THE PREVAILING ZONAL MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. EXPECT
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS SSTS REMAIN
FAVORABLE THROUGH THE 35TH LATITUDE AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS.
HOWEVER, EXPECT INCREASED VWS TO BEGIN TO DECREASE TS MOLAVE
INTENSITY AS IT STARTS TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.
C. BY TAU 96, EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO BE FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE
WESTERLIES, COMPLETING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR
16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM
EAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC
WITH DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 120721Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED AND ELONGATED LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON A PREVIOUS (120407Z) 37V SSMI IMAGE SHOWING A CLEAR LLCC
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KNOTS
BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
RJTD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE VWS BUT GOOD AND VISIBLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, SPECIFICALLY
ON THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLE AS
THEY ARE ABOVE 28 CELSIUS. TS MOLAVE IS TRACKING WITHIN THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 15W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD, UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF BOTH THE STR TO THE SOUTH AND THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL, SSTS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 26 CELSIUS THROUGH
TAU 12 ALLOWING MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, NORTH OF THE 35TH
PARALLEL, EXPECT SSTS TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY AND THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN
TO DECAY. ADDITIONALLY, INCREASING VWS AS THE SYSTEM STARTS TO
BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL AID IN THE REDUCTION OF
THE SYSTEM AND WILL SIGNAL THE BEGINNING OF EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). EXPECT ETT TO BE COMPLETE BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR
20//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 715 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION
SHEARED FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
THE MSI LOOP AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON PREVIOUS
130204Z ASCAT PASS AND SLIGHTLY WEAKENED STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 15W HAS DRIFTED DEEPER INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOT) VWS;
HOWEVER, A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE
WAYWARD CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS MOLAVE WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AS VWS CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND SSTS
BEGIN TO DROP AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DECAY.
CONCURRENTLY, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT
ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TS 15W WILL BECOME A GALE-FORCE COLD
CORE LOW BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[supercane]

Finally done as a tropical entity!

WTPQ21 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPING LOW FORMER TS 1514 MOLAVE (1514)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140000UTC 37N 161E
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
30KT 300NM =