EPAC: HILDA - Recon

[Kingarabian]

Placeholder.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

They took off early, at 1:06Z. (9:06pm EDT, 3:06pm HST)

[Kingarabian]

They took off early, at 1:06Z. (9:06pm EDT, 3:06pm HST)

Thank you.

Not a far flight, maybe a center fix before the 5pm advisory.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

No, it's a lot further than it looks.

Through 1:54Z:

[Chris_in_Tampa]

They are going about 50 nautical miles every 10 minutes. If they went straight at the storm it would be this:



They will not quite since they line up to do a pattern, but they might reach the center around midnight EDT. (6pm HST)

I'll post some more images later tonight.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 3:04Z:



Looks like the pass will probably be from SW to NE.

[Kingarabian]

000
URPN15 KNHC 100313
AF309 0110E HILDA HDOB 13 20150810
030430 1524N 15024W 3923 07763 0443 -150 -327 001016 016 016 000 00
030500 1521N 15022W 3927 07756 0443 -150 -332 356016 016 016 000 00
030530 1519N 15020W 3925 07759 0442 -149 -323 352016 016 015 000 00
030600 1517N 15019W 3926 07757 0442 -148 -312 343014 015 014 000 00
030630 1515N 15017W 3927 07754 0442 -150 -254 338014 014 012 000 00
030700 1512N 15016W 3927 07756 0442 -150 -266 336013 014 014 000 00
030730 1510N 15014W 3926 07757 0441 -149 -261 339012 013 013 001 00
030800 1508N 15013W 3921 07768 0442 -147 -265 341012 012 015 000 00
030830 1506N 15011W 3927 07753 0442 -145 -251 345012 013 015 000 00
030900 1503N 15009W 3926 07756 0442 -145 -227 344012 013 013 000 00
030930 1501N 15008W 3926 07756 0442 -145 -246 344013 014 013 000 03
031000 1459N 15006W 3927 07754 0442 -145 -242 340014 014 011 000 00
031030 1457N 15005W 3991 07655 0453 -136 -245 333016 016 011 000 03
031100 1454N 15003W 4195 07280 0429 -110 -224 326020 020 012 001 03
031130 1452N 15002W 4381 06933 0396 -091 -223 322021 021 017 001 00
031200 1449N 15000W 4556 06627 0374 -082 -162 338021 022 016 001 00
031230 1447N 14959W 4727 06340 0355 -065 -169 344023 024 006 000 00
031300 1444N 14958W 4904 06049 0333 -049 -142 350025 026 007 000 03
031330 1442N 14956W 5005 05881 0318 -041 -131 352024 026 /// /// 03
031400 1441N 14955W 5197 05594 0305 -030 -110 358026 027 007 002 03
$$
;

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 3:24Z (HDOB 14):

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 3:34Z (HDOB 15):

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URPN15 KNHC 100343
AF309 0110E HILDA HDOB 16 20150810
033430 1449N 14842W 6965 03152 0076 +103 +103 299025 028 033 010 00
033500 1450N 14841W 6963 03155 0062 +090 //// 303024 026 031 008 01
033530 1451N 14840W 6959 03157 //// +093 //// 299023 024 027 002 01
033600 1453N 14839W 6965 03147 0029 +099 +096 293021 022 027 001 00
033630 1454N 14838W 6963 03146 0028 +100 +096 291020 020 027 001 00
033700 1456N 14836W 6963 03144 0023 +098 +094 288021 021 025 001 01
033730 1457N 14835W 6962 03147 //// +093 //// 288022 023 027 003 01
033800 1459N 14835W 6964 03140 0023 +100 //// 280020 021 030 007 01
033830 1501N 14834W 6959 03136 0009 +103 +098 270023 025 031 006 00
033900 1502N 14833W 6967 03121 0002 +102 +095 277026 027 031 004 00
033930 1504N 14833W 6964 03119 9992 +103 +085 280029 030 033 002 00
034000 1506N 14832W 6965 03111 9985 +101 +095 276032 033 033 004 00
034030 1507N 14831W 6966 03106 //// +090 //// 279035 037 033 004 01
034100 1509N 14830W 6964 03101 //// +100 //// 275039 039 037 001 01
034130 1511N 14829W 6960 03094 9957 +105 +088 274044 047 042 003 00
034200 1513N 14828W 6970 03068 9942 +104 +093 268052 055 047 006 03
034230 1514N 14828W 6961 03059 9939 +097 //// 266059 061 055 005 05
034300 1516N 14827W 6957 03048 9865 +121 +098 271061 064 055 005 01
034330 1518N 14827W 6963 03027 9808 +171 +066 276060 061 054 001 00
034400 1520N 14827W 6971 02972 9753 +183 +073 284065 067 049 001 00



At end of message:

Lowest Extrapolated Sfc. Pressure: 975.3 mb
Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.): 65 knots
Peak (10 sec. Avg.) Flight Level Wind: 67 knots

1 minute before end of the message:

SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind: 55 knots

[Yellow Evan]

One thing to conclude so far: TS wind radii for Hilda is very small.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URPN15 KNHC 100354
AF309 0110E HILDA HDOB 17 20150810
034430 1521N 14826W 6967 02956 9733 +175 +090 277046 064 035 003 00
034500 1523N 14826W 6965 02946 9709 +186 +091 269026 034 016 003 00
034530 1525N 14826W 6967 02919 9697 +175 +094 257002 016 007 001 00
034600 1527N 14827W 6965 02919 9700 +169 +095 088013 022 024 001 00
034630 1529N 14827W 6962 02925 9706 +168 +094 089036 041 025 000 03
034700 1530N 14826W 6970 02932 9744 +143 +107 094049 053 078 005 00
034730 1531N 14825W 6951 02972 9784 +126 +122 111071 087 090 010 00
034800 1533N 14824W 6951 03020 9866 +121 +121 118094 096 087 011 00
034830 1534N 14823W 6990 03006 9913 +112 +112 114090 092 084 020 00
034900 1536N 14823W 6953 03066 9956 +106 +106 115084 089 072 030 00
034930 1537N 14822W 6972 03067 9980 +109 //// 114079 085 057 050 05
035000 1538N 14821W 6952 03102 0011 +095 //// 117070 073 041 046 01
035030 1539N 14820W 6966 03092 0018 +098 +098 118069 070 051 018 00
035100 1540N 14819W 6961 03109 0023 +097 +097 122065 068 051 009 00
035130 1541N 14817W 6963 03111 0010 +103 +103 125062 063 050 009 00
035200 1542N 14816W 6963 03117 0030 +103 +103 126062 063 050 015 00
035230 1543N 14815W 6955 03129 0035 +104 +104 128060 067 051 017 03
035300 1545N 14814W 6981 03104 0045 +104 +104 133062 064 048 017 00
035330 1546N 14812W 6957 03137 0056 +097 +097 123060 065 047 013 00
035400 1547N 14811W 6966 03130 0075 +087 +087 116059 061 044 012 00

[Kingarabian]

Still a strong storm.

969mb.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

SW (somewhat from south) to NE pass:

Lowest Extrapolated Sfc. Pressure: 969.7 mb
Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.): 94 knots (108.2 mph)
Peak (10 sec. Avg.) Flight Level Wind: 96 knots (~ 110.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind: 90 knots (~ 103.6 mph)

[Yellow Evan]

Still a strong storm.

969mb.

7 knot SFMR winds would support around 967 mbar.

SFMR peaked at 90 has not made it to the deepest convection. 95/967 is good.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

UZPN13 KNHC 100359
XXAA 60047 99156 71484 05158 99986 24400 02586 00624 ///// /////
92561 22407 06097 85297 19400 07591 70954 12205 11091 88999 77999
31313 09608 80348
61616 AF309 0110E HILDA OB 07
62626 EYEWALL 045 MBL WND 04592 AEV 07775 DLM WND 07588 986696 WL
150 03595 084 REL 1555N14840W 034808 SPG 1553N14854W 035341 =
XXBB 60048 99156 71484 05158 00986 24400 11850 19400 22696 11200
21212 00986 02586 11984 02585 22977 03103 33972 04093 44968 04590
55956 05596 66941 05589 77922 06098 88910 06600 99897 07097 11886
07089 22867 07093 33850 07591 44741 09095 55696 11592
31313 09608 80348
61616 AF309 0110E HILDA OB 07
62626 EYEWALL 045 MBL WND 04592 AEV 07775 DLM WND 07588 986696 WL
150 03595 084 REL 1555N14840W 034808 SPG 1553N14854W 035341 =



Suface: 86 knots (99 mph) from the NNE (986mb surface)
Highest from significant levels: 103 knots (119 mph) from the NNE at 977mb level

[Chris_in_Tampa]

974mb, 12 knot surface wind

UZPN13 KNHC 100401
XXAA 60047 99154 71484 05158 99974 26805 07012 00733 ///// /////
92458 23800 10012 85198 22838 13011 70884 17257 09006 88999 77999
31313 09608 80345
61616 AF309 0110E HILDA OB 08
62626 CENTER MBL WND 09012 AEV 07775 DLM WND 10510 973696 WL150 0
8012 084 REL 1544N14844W 034547 SPG 1543N14845W 035001 =
XXBB 60048 99154 71484 05158 00974 26805 11878 22006 22850 22838
33841 23048 44778 20250 55744 20859 66712 19458 77696 16457
21212 00974 07012 11902 10512 22875 12016 33863 11012 44850 13011
55779 12010 66767 10510 77752 05510 88696 10009
31313 09608 80345
61616 AF309 0110E HILDA OB 08
62626 CENTER MBL WND 09012 AEV 07775 DLM WND 10510 973696 WL150 0
8012 084 REL 1544N14844W 034547 SPG 1543N14845W 035001 =
;

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URPN12 KNHC 100403
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP102015
A. 10/03:45:40Z
B. 15 deg 25 min N
148 deg 27 min W
C. 700 mb 2876 m
D. 55 kt
E. 184 deg 8 nm
F. 283 deg 67 kt
G. 182 deg 5 nm
H. 974 mb
I. 10 C / 3030 m
J. 19 C / 3063 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C15
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 0110E HILDA OB 06
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 96 KT 017 / 8 NM 03:48:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 070 / 12 KT
;

[Chris_in_Tampa]

I'll post more images on the next pass.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 4:24Z: