EPAC: HILDA - Recon

[Kingarabian]

000
URPN15 KNHC 110451
AF303 0310E HILDA HDOB 21 20150811
044200 1552N 15045W 6967 03172 0080 +083 +076 259022 023 011 000 00
044230 1551N 15043W 6966 03173 0085 +081 +077 251023 023 009 000 03
044300 1551N 15041W 6965 03176 0084 +083 +076 251022 023 005 001 03
044330 1552N 15040W 6961 03175 0073 +087 +075 252022 022 010 000 00
044400 1554N 15040W 6965 03169 0076 +082 +078 246023 024 012 001 01
044430 1556N 15040W 6970 03161 //// +080 //// 241022 023 013 000 01
044500 1557N 15040W 6969 03164 //// +084 //// 257020 022 015 001 01
044530 1559N 15040W 6967 03166 0064 +089 +082 261020 022 021 001 01
044600 1601N 15040W 6961 03172 0068 +086 +082 261021 022 022 002 01
044630 1602N 15040W 6967 03164 //// +076 //// 253022 023 024 003 01
044700 1604N 15040W 6974 03156 //// +074 //// 265024 026 026 001 01
044730 1606N 15040W 6962 03167 //// +076 //// 275025 026 027 001 01
044800 1607N 15040W 6976 03150 //// +081 //// 275029 030 026 001 01
044830 1609N 15040W 6965 03163 0054 +095 +080 276028 030 028 001 00
044900 1611N 15040W 6960 03166 0046 +100 +076 277032 033 029 000 00
044930 1612N 15040W 6969 03155 0042 +103 +070 276035 038 030 000 00
045000 1614N 15040W 6964 03157 0039 +102 +064 278038 039 030 001 00
045030 1616N 15040W 6962 03157 0032 +105 +073 276037 039 032 002 00
045100 1617N 15040W 6963 03152 0030 +102 +092 273033 035 033 001 00
045130 1619N 15040W 6970 03142 0032 +099 +095 273034 035 035 001 01
$$
;

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Incoming from the south:

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 5:01:30Z:

[Kingarabian]

Lower pressure?


000
URPN15 KNHC 110501
AF303 0310E HILDA HDOB 22 20150811
045200 1621N 15040W 6970 03140 0022 +102 +088 271036 037 034 001 00
045230 1622N 15040W 6965 03144 0010 +113 +074 269041 041 036 001 00
045300 1624N 15040W 6962 03140 0000 +117 +074 265043 044 036 000 00
045330 1626N 15040W 6970 03128 9992 +120 +070 265046 046 036 002 00
045400 1627N 15040W 6963 03133 9993 +116 +078 265048 049 036 000 00
045430 1629N 15040W 6961 03130 9984 +120 +070 266051 052 038 001 00
045500 1631N 15040W 6962 03122 9974 +124 +064 260053 054 040 002 00
045530 1633N 15040W 6967 03108 9957 +131 +055 256057 060 044 001 00
045600 1634N 15040W 6972 03100 9939 +141 +048 260061 062 049 001 03
045630 1636N 15040W 6962 03107 9928 +146 +046 263060 062 051 001 00
045700 1638N 15040W 6967 03088 9916 +148 +046 267058 059 052 001 00
045730 1639N 15040W 6965 03087 9909 +147 +048 266057 058 046 002 00
045800 1641N 15040W 6949 03096 9895 +152 +046 266058 059 042 001 03
045830 1643N 15040W 6962 03067 9880 +154 +047 265060 061 041 000 00
045900 1644N 15040W 6968 03046 9855 +162 +046 261061 063 034 000 00
045930 1646N 15040W 6956 03046 9825 +175 +053 256052 061 029 001 00
050000 1648N 15040W 6974 03014 9811 +173 +079 264037 046 027 001 00
050030 1650N 15040W 6961 03022 9802 +172 +083 269025 033 021 000 00
050100 1652N 15040W 6962 03015 9805 +163 +091 248018 026 016 000 03
050130 1653N 15040W 6962 03006 9788 +172 +090 175006 014 020 001 00
$$
;

[Chris_in_Tampa]

978.8 mb so far which is not lower. (next ob in moment)

[Chris_in_Tampa]

These are estimated. (They have been low based on actual sonde measurements)

Lowest Extrapolated Sfc. Pressure:

Pass 1: 977.3 mb
Pass 2: 976.1 mb
Pass 3: 978.8 mb (no lower on next ob set)

[Kingarabian]

000
URPN15 KNHC 110511
AF303 0310E HILDA HDOB 23 20150811
050200 1655N 15042W 6970 03000 9789 +173 +089 089017 024 024 002 03
050230 1656N 15042W 6961 03016 9813 +154 +102 083036 039 047 001 03
050300 1658N 15042W 6975 03004 9818 +156 +102 083045 052 066 005 00
050330 1700N 15042W 6965 03025 9840 +142 +109 078058 061 071 008 00
050400 1701N 15042W 6953 03042 9884 +124 +124 087062 063 074 009 00
050430 1703N 15042W 6968 03038 9907 +122 +121 097069 075 077 020 00
050500 1705N 15042W 6967 03055 9938 +118 +118 103082 084 076 021 00
050530 1707N 15042W 6962 03073 9966 +114 +114 100082 084 073 024 00
050600 1709N 15042W 6970 03082 9990 +110 +110 090078 085 073 024 00
050630 1710N 15042W 6965 03098 0009 +107 +107 093072 076 067 025 00
050700 1712N 15042W 6978 03093 0030 +100 +100 085065 068 066 023 00
050730 1713N 15042W 6964 03122 0040 +097 +097 089064 067 065 024 00
050800 1715N 15042W 6974 03128 0055 +095 +095 081063 066 061 024 00
050830 1717N 15042W 6961 03141 0043 +092 +092 080055 061 057 018 00
050900 1718N 15042W 6959 03151 0038 +094 +094 083058 060 053 013 00
050930 1720N 15042W 6962 03148 0033 +095 +094 084056 056 048 007 00
051000 1722N 15042W 6964 03149 0029 +102 +084 088054 055 046 005 00
051030 1723N 15042W 6969 03144 0037 +096 +090 091054 055 046 005 00
051100 1725N 15042W 6967 03151 0046 +096 +095 092053 054 046 005 00
051130 1727N 15042W 6974 03150 0045 +096 +092 091051 054 045 007 00
$$
;

[Kingarabian]

These are estimated. (They have been low based on actual sonde measurements)

Lowest Extrapolated Sfc. Pressure:

Pass 1: 977.3 mb
Pass 2: 976.1 mb
Pass 3: 978.8 mb (no lower on next ob set)

Ah...

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Sonde: 983mb, 26 knots of surface wind (previous pass had lower surface wind, 18 knots, same mb reading)

UZPN13 KNHC 110513
XXAA 61057 99169 71507 05260 99983 26205 08026 00648 ///// /////
92541 23805 07018 85282 20808 09021 70965 18259 15006 88999 77999
31313 09608 80501
61616 AF303 0310E HILDA OB 16
62626 CENTER MBL WND 07020 AEV 07775 DLM WND 09015 983696 WL150 0
7022 084 REL 1688N15067W 050124 SPG 1690N15070W 050624 =
XXBB 61058 99169 71507 05260 00983 26205 11850 20808 22838 20212
33819 23257 44728 19058 55705 19860 66696 17058
21212 00983 08026 11970 06519 22959 06018 33850 09021 44820 07510
55797 10010 66784 09513 77762 15513 88747 13016 99713 12512 11704
10511 22696 20508
31313 09608 80501
61616 AF303 0310E HILDA OB 16
62626 CENTER MBL WND 07020 AEV 07775 DLM WND 09015 983696 WL150 0
7022 084 REL 1688N15067W 050124 SPG 1690N15070W 050624 =
;

[Chris_in_Tampa]

S to N pass (strongest flight level winds of mission, surface a bit lower by 3 knots):

Lowest Extrapolated Sfc. Pressure: 978.8 mb
Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.): 82 knots (94.4 mph)
Peak (10 sec. Avg.) Flight Level Wind: 85 knots (~ 97.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind: 77 knots (~ 88.6 mph)

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URPN12 KNHC 110514
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP102015
A. 11/05:01:40Z
B. 16 deg 53 min N
150 deg 41 min W
C. 700 mb 2961 m
D. 52 kt
E. 178 deg 15 nm
F. 260 deg 63 kt
G. 175 deg 8 nm
H. 983 mb
I. 15 C / 3043 m
J. 18 C / 3048 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. OPEN SW
M. C25
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 0.5 nm
P. AF303 0310E HILDA OB 15
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 85 KT 354 / 15 NM 05:06:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 080 / 26 KT
;


Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URPN12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 11th day of the month at 5:14Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5303
Storm Number & Year: 10 in 2015
Storm Name: Hilda (flight in the Northeast Pacific basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 15
A. Time of Center Fix: 11th day of the month at 5:01:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°53'N 150°41'W (16.8833N 150.6833W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,961m (9,715ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 52kts (~ 59.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the S (178°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 260° at 63kts (From the W at ~ 72.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the S (175°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 983mb (29.03 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.5 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 85kts (~ 97.8mph) which was observed 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the N (354°) from the flight level center at 5:06:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 80° at 26kts (From the E at 30mph)

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Yellow line on island of Hawaii for elevataion profile.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[Kingarabian]

000
URPN15 KNHC 110521
AF303 0310E HILDA HDOB 24 20150811
051200 1728N 15042W 6957 03171 0047 +095 +085 088049 050 045 006 00
051230 1730N 15042W 6963 03166 0050 +098 +080 090050 050 044 007 00
051300 1730N 15042W 6963 03166 0050 +100 +079 092049 050 044 007 00
051330 1732N 15042W 6966 03166 0048 +104 +079 090048 048 044 006 00
051400 1734N 15042W 6965 03169 0044 +108 +074 093046 047 044 004 00
051430 1735N 15041W 6967 03169 0046 +110 +075 094045 046 043 004 00
051500 1737N 15041W 6961 03178 0045 +111 +069 095043 044 043 000 00
051530 1738N 15041W 6962 03176 0044 +114 +064 097042 043 041 002 00
051600 1740N 15041W 6965 03174 0055 +105 +079 097044 044 040 003 00
051630 1742N 15041W 6982 03157 0068 +096 +087 096044 045 039 004 00
051700 1744N 15041W 6966 03176 0068 +096 +084 098042 043 039 006 00
051730 1746N 15041W 6965 03178 0065 +101 +086 100040 043 039 005 00
051800 1748N 15041W 6970 03176 0072 +097 +095 100035 039 039 005 00
051830 1750N 15041W 6967 03180 0069 +098 //// 099036 037 038 004 01
051900 1752N 15041W 6965 03184 0065 +103 +086 097035 037 038 002 00
051930 1754N 15041W 6962 03187 0061 +108 +082 098031 033 037 003 00
052000 1756N 15041W 6956 03188 0066 +101 +076 097031 031 035 001 00
052030 1758N 15041W 6967 03177 0068 +100 +072 101033 035 033 001 00
052100 1800N 15041W 6961 03179 0075 +089 +075 102038 040 033 000 00
052130 1803N 15041W 6974 03163 0071 +095 +067 100034 040 031 000 00
$$
;

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Mission over.

'

[Kingarabian]

I guess it's best to stick with 80kts then.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

I guess it's best to stick with 80kts then.

Given the pressure remained steady out there and the flight level winds were even a little higher on the last pass, though it might just be because of where they sampled, they might stick with 80 knots.

I would estimate:

980/981mb
75/80 knots

I wish there were more sondes in the eyewall. They only did one. (or at least that is all the raw data that I see)

Based on the one sonde, it could be gusting over 90 knots at around 1,000 feet. If that sonde has sampled some of the higher wind, and had the same profile in another location, you could be looking at over 100 knots at around 1,000 feet.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Of course it is still three hours until they do the next advisory, so if the cloud pattern degrades, they would probably lower the winds from where they currently have it.

Next mission:

Code: Select all

    1. HURRICANE HILDA
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 78   
       A. 11/1800Z
       B. AFXXX 0410E HILDA
       C. 11/1445Z (10:45am EDT, 4:45am HST, scheduled departure)
       D. 17.6N 152.0W
       E. 11/1615Z TO 11/1915Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000FT

[Alyono]

URPN15 KNHC 120609
AF303 0510E HILDA HDOB 11 20150812
055930 1755N 15258W 8242 01766 0097 +167 +151 046021 021 022 001 00
060000 1754N 15257W 8246 01764 0095 +169 +149 045021 022 023 000 00
060030 1753N 15255W 8245 01765 0094 +174 +147 043021 021 022 000 03
060100 1752N 15254W 8245 01765 0092 +175 +142 043020 021 023 000 00
060130 1751N 15253W 8244 01765 0090 +178 +135 046019 019 023 001 00
060200 1749N 15252W 8244 01765 0090 +177 +134 040020 021 024 001 00
060230 1748N 15251W 8246 01763 0088 +180 +130 040021 021 023 001 00
060300 1747N 15249W 8242 01765 0089 +180 +123 035022 023 024 000 00
060330 1746N 15248W 8244 01764 0087 +180 +126 031022 022 024 000 00
060400 1745N 15247W 8244 01763 0085 +181 +128 029022 023 022 002 00
060430 1743N 15245W 8245 01761 0086 +179 +128 029023 024 023 001 00
060500 1742N 15244W 8244 01761 0088 +178 +126 030023 024 024 000 00
060530 1741N 15243W 8244 01761 0087 +177 +129 033023 024 022 001 00
060600 1740N 15242W 8248 01755 0090 +170 +139 037025 025 022 001 00
060630 1739N 15240W 8242 01761 0090 +169 +130 035023 025 021 001 03
060700 1737N 15239W 8244 01760 0093 +165 +140 031022 022 023 000 00
060730 1736N 15238W 8244 01760 0092 +164 +149 033021 022 024 000 00
060800 1735N 15237W 8241 01761 0092 +162 +153 038019 020 023 000 00
060830 1734N 15235W 8242 01760 0091 +163 +155 037019 019 023 000 00
060900 1733N 15234W 8244 01758 0089 +164 +155 033018 019 023 000 00