ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[Hammy]

Radar seems to confirm the circulation is currently closed, with all rain elements directly south of the center going (albeit slowly) to the east.

Actually, radar pretty much confirms the opposite. There's a vigorous vort center east of Dominica, but it's at the cusp of an open wave. Look at the motion of the cells to it's NW and W. There is nothing in that quadrant that's moving NW to SE, which could indicate a closed ground relative wind circulation.

Recon appears to confirm it's closed back up, large area of 5-10kt westerly winds (and a few a bit stronger) which is quite a change from six hours ago, with zero westerly winds. Likely down to a TD at the moment though.

[blp]

Here we go popcorn convection starting around llc. Will it lead to next big blow-up?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/imagery/rb_lalo-animated.gif

[Gustywind]

Best Track

AL, 04, 2015082400, , BEST, 0, 156N, 593W, 35, 1008, TS,

[AJC3]

Radar seems to confirm the circulation is currently closed, with all rain elements directly south of the center going (albeit slowly) to the east.

Actually, radar pretty much confirms the opposite. There's a vigorous vort center east of Dominica, but it's at the cusp of an open wave. Look at the motion of the cells to it's NW and W. There is nothing in that quadrant that's moving NW to SE, which could indicate a closed ground relative wind circulation.

Recon appears to confirm it's closed back up, large area of 5-10kt westerly winds (and a few a bit stronger) which is quite a change from six hours ago, with zero westerly winds. Likely down to a TD at the moment though.

Gotcha. See that now...indeed it's closed. On life support, but closed.

[Nederlander]

denny may become invest 99l

It stays Danny for now since it hasn't been downgraded, right?

i seen before when system down grade but got chance becoming td again been graving invest number

I have always been under the impression that even if a named system were to open up, that if it reformed, it would keep its name... (not sure about invest numbers though) Pros? is this correct?

[AJC3]

I have always been under the impression that even if a named system were to open up, that if it reformed, it would keep its name... (not sure about invest numbers though) Pros? is this correct?

Yes.

[supercane]

I have always been under the impression that even if a named system were to open up, that if it reformed, it would keep its name... (not sure about invest numbers though) Pros? is this correct?

As stated above, yes. As stated in this year's National Hurricane Operations Plan (NHOP) Section 3.3 states,

Within a basin, if the remnant of a tropical cyclone redevelops into a tropical cyclone, it is assigned its original number or name. If the remnants of a former tropical cyclone regenerate in a new basin, the regenerated tropical cyclone will be given a new designation.

For invests, I do not see a formal policy posted. I have seen it go both ways (keep the old number vs new number).

[supercane]

New advisory conservatively maintains this as a TS. PR and VI watches discontinued.

000
WTNT34 KNHC 240238
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 23 2015

...DANNY APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 59.8W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM E OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the
U.S. Virgin Islands has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten

[blp]

Deeper Convection now moving toward center. Danny starting to make a nice comback tonight. Hopefully shear will stay away for several hours.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/imagery/rb_lalo-animated.gif

[ozonepete]

This shouldn't be that much of a surprise. I talked about it all afternoon, lol. The MLC was too strong to dissipate and so the multiple LLC swirls rotating underneath it would naturally try to line up under the MLC and reestablish a stacked center, but only provided the shear would drop. And the shear appears to be dropping, which also shouldn't be a surprise.

[Hammy]

This shouldn't be that much of a surprise. I talked about it all afternoon, lol. The MLC was too strong to dissipate and so the multiple LLC swirls rotating underneath it would naturally try to line up under the MLC and reestablish a stacked center, but only provided the shear would drop. And the shear appears to be dropping, which also shouldn't be a surprise.

Does that mean I'm not crazy for seeing on radar what looks like weak low-level westerly flow north of the LLC (which could indicate it reforming a tad north)?

[ozonepete]

This shouldn't be that much of a surprise. I talked about it all afternoon, lol. The MLC was too strong to dissipate and so the multiple LLC swirls rotating underneath it would naturally try to line up under the MLC and reestablish a stacked center, but only provided the shear would drop. And the shear appears to be dropping, which also shouldn't be a surprise.

Does that mean I'm not crazy for seeing on radar what looks like weak low-level westerly flow north of the LLC (which could indicate it reforming a tad north)?

Yup. You are not crazy my friend. There is still a lot of center reformation and consolidation going on. The center is very likely to reestablish north of the current fixes.

[blp]

This shouldn't be that much of a surprise. I talked about it all afternoon, lol. The MLC was too strong to dissipate and so the multiple LLC swirls rotating underneath it would naturally try to line up under the MLC and reestablish a stacked center, but only provided the shear would drop. And the shear appears to be dropping, which also shouldn't be a surprise.

Does that mean I'm not crazy for seeing on radar what looks like weak low-level westerly flow north of the LLC (which could indicate it reforming a tad north)?

Yup. You are not crazy my friend. There is still a lot of center reformation and consolidation going on. The center is very likely to reestablish north of the current fixes.

I agree. This will reform North or the old center will be pulled NW. I think the old center is restablishing itself but will change its heading.

[Fego]

Hi, like wnw instead of w? Thanks

[floridasun78]

i saw one models in models page for DANNY have making come back i think it over doing it

[tailgater]

I don't see any reforming ATM

[blp]

:uarrow:
Hi, like wnw instead of w? Thanks

Exactly, I think it will even out to a WNW direction which most of the models predicted would start happening as it approached Puerto Rico.

I started heading due West when it decoupled and moved with the low level flow. If it starts stacking again the higher level flow is more toward the WNW.

[frederic79]

I haven't posted here in years and I realize this is extremely unlikely. But I remember Frederic in 1979 making it to the Caribbean as a hurricane or strong TS, then disapating. Poof. Gone. Crickets and all. Then, around the Isle of Youth, Frederic reformed and the rest is history. Current shear maps indicate moderate shear for the next 24-48 hours, after which shear should abate somewhat. Again, very unlikely for this to happen, but food for thought anyway...

[HurriGuy]

http://www.hurricanecity.com/wx/antiguaobs.htm

Great radar link!!

[bahamaswx]

Pulling together nicely. Might have one solid blob consolidated over the center of circulation here within a few hours.