ATL: DANNY - Models

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blp
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ATL: DANNY - Models

#1 Postby blp » Sun Aug 16, 2015 1:38 am

Euro coming in stronger so far thru 144hrs.
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Re: Wave in Eastern Atlantic

#2 Postby blp » Sun Aug 16, 2015 1:54 am

Euro much stronger... Islands watch out.

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#3 Postby LarryWx » Sun Aug 16, 2015 1:58 am

I'm taking the details with a huge grain of course since no model is anywhere close to reliable a week or more out for something that has yet to become a TC, but fwiw the 0Z Euro takes this to the L.A.'s on 8/25 and then threatens P.R. early on 8/26. Again, HUGE grain at this early stage, especially with this being a strong Nino. Regardless, I still am educatedly guessing that one named storm will form somewhere in the basin this month. Could this be the one that forms? Who knows?
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#4 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Aug 16, 2015 2:03 am

Well at least the Euro starts to weaken it as it heads towards Puerto Rico 240hrs. out. This means it notices the very unfavorable conditions(shear wise) in the Caribbean/NE Caribbean.

Maybe if it stays at or around 10N most of it's life in the MDR it may possibly have a chance.
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#5 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Aug 16, 2015 2:09 am

Need to see a few more Euro runs before I buy into it.
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ATL: INVEST 96L- Models

#6 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 16, 2015 2:16 am

Run looks off.

Code: Select all

                    * ATLANTIC     SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED,      OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      AL962015  08/16/15  06 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    20    22    24    27    31    41    51    59    66    72    80    88    91
V (KT) LAND       20    22    24    27    31    41    51    59    66    72    80    88    91
V (KT) LGE mod    20    21    22    24    26    31    38    47    57    66    76    89   100
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         9     7     5     5     6     7     4     5     5     5     4     5     5
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -3    -1     4     7     5     1     5     3     1     2     0    -2    -4
SHEAR DIR        106    81    61    41    27    44    61   172   204    35    66    89   188
SST (C)         27.7  27.9  28.0  28.0  27.8  27.5  27.5  27.7  27.9  27.9  28.1  28.1  28.2
POT. INT. (KT)   134   136   138   138   135   132   132   134   136   136   138   137   139
ADJ. POT. INT.   136   138   140   140   137   134   134   136   138   137   137   135   136
200 MB T (C)   -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -52.7 -53.2 -52.8 -53.4 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3
TH_E DEV (C)       7     7     7     7     7     7     7     8     7     7     7     9     9
700-500 MB RH     64    65    64    65    66    64    65    62    65    66    63    54    50
MODEL VTX (KT)     6     7     6     6     5     6     5     5     4     5     6     7     8
850 MB ENV VOR    56    59    62    55    45    40    34    26    35    30    28    11    21
200 MB DIV         4     6    31    57    68    63    68    85   101    53    -1   -29   -40
700-850 TADV      -1    -4    -6    -5    -5    -6    -4    -1    -3    -9    -3    -1     0
LAND (KM)        995  1120  1247  1377  1508  1782  1797  1545  1300  1096   934   823   759
LAT (DEG N)     10.2  10.3  10.4  10.5  10.5  10.7  10.8  11.0  11.0  11.0  10.9  11.1  11.3
LONG(DEG W)     25.7  26.9  28.1  29.4  30.7  33.4  36.3  39.0  41.7  44.2  46.4  48.3  49.8
STM SPEED (KT)    13    12    12    13    13    14    14    13    13    12    10     8     8
HEAT CONTENT      16    15    14    15    15    14    19    13    12    23    22    33    30

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 14      CX,CY: -13/  0
  T-12 MAX WIND:  20            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  501  (MEAN=624)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  17.5 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  49.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  12.  12.  13.  14.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   0.   1.   5.  12.  19.  24.  29.  32.  35.  37.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   4.   5.   7.   9.  11.  12.  13.  14.  15.  15.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   1.   2.   3.   6.   9.  10.   9.  10.  12.  15.  14.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -6.  -7.  -9.  -9.  -9.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -3.  -2.  -2.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   1.   1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   2.   1.   1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -2.  -2.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           2.   4.   7.  11.  21.  31.  39.  46.  52.  60.  68.  71.

   ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962015 INVEST     08/16/15  06 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-49.5 to  33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.7
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   6.5 Range: 28.8 to   2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to   2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  73.6 Range: 43.2 to  93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.7
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 118.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.5
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  15.0 Range:  0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  33.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.1
 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%)

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962015 INVEST     08/16/2015  06 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)                    * ATLANTIC     SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED,      OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      AL962015  08/16/15  06 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    20    22    24    27    31    41    51    59    66    72    80    88    91
V (KT) LAND       20    22    24    27    31    41    51    59    66    72    80    88    91
V (KT) LGE mod    20    21    22    24    26    31    38    47    57    66    76    89   100
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         9     7     5     5     6     7     4     5     5     5     4     5     5
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -3    -1     4     7     5     1     5     3     1     2     0    -2    -4
SHEAR DIR        106    81    61    41    27    44    61   172   204    35    66    89   188
SST (C)         27.7  27.9  28.0  28.0  27.8  27.5  27.5  27.7  27.9  27.9  28.1  28.1  28.2
POT. INT. (KT)   134   136   138   138   135   132   132   134   136   136   138   137   139
ADJ. POT. INT.   136   138   140   140   137   134   134   136   138   137   137   135   136
200 MB T (C)   -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -52.7 -53.2 -52.8 -53.4 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3
TH_E DEV (C)       7     7     7     7     7     7     7     8     7     7     7     9     9
700-500 MB RH     64    65    64    65    66    64    65    62    65    66    63    54    50
MODEL VTX (KT)     6     7     6     6     5     6     5     5     4     5     6     7     8
850 MB ENV VOR    56    59    62    55    45    40    34    26    35    30    28    11    21
200 MB DIV         4     6    31    57    68    63    68    85   101    53    -1   -29   -40
700-850 TADV      -1    -4    -6    -5    -5    -6    -4    -1    -3    -9    -3    -1     0
LAND (KM)        995  1120  1247  1377  1508  1782  1797  1545  1300  1096   934   823   759
LAT (DEG N)     10.2  10.3  10.4  10.5  10.5  10.7  10.8  11.0  11.0  11.0  10.9  11.1  11.3
LONG(DEG W)     25.7  26.9  28.1  29.4  30.7  33.4  36.3  39.0  41.7  44.2  46.4  48.3  49.8
STM SPEED (KT)    13    12    12    13    13    14    14    13    13    12    10     8     8
HEAT CONTENT      16    15    14    15    15    14    19    13    12    23    22    33    30

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 14      CX,CY: -13/  0
  T-12 MAX WIND:  20            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  501  (MEAN=624)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  17.5 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  49.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  12.  12.  13.  14.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   0.   1.   5.  12.  19.  24.  29.  32.  35.  37.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   4.   5.   7.   9.  11.  12.  13.  14.  15.  15.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   1.   2.   3.   6.   9.  10.   9.  10.  12.  15.  14.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -6.  -7.  -9.  -9.  -9.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -3.  -2.  -2.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   1.   1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   2.   1.   1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -2.  -2.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           2.   4.   7.  11.  21.  31.  39.  46.  52.  60.  68.  71.

   ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962015 INVEST     08/16/15  06 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-49.5 to  33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.7
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   6.5 Range: 28.8 to   2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to   2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  73.6 Range: 43.2 to  93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.7
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 118.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.5
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  15.0 Range:  0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  33.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.1
 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%)

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962015 INVEST     08/16/2015  06 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)
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#7 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Aug 16, 2015 2:33 am

00z Euro run recap.

Hr.120 :darrow:
Image

Hr.144 :darrow:
Image

Hr.168 :darrow:
Image

Hr.192 :darrow:
Image

Hr.216 :darrow:
Image

Hr.240 :darrow:
Image
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#8 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Aug 16, 2015 2:37 am

The 500mb pattern looks a little interesting.

Hr.216 :darrow:
Image

Hr.240 :darrow:
Image
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#9 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 16, 2015 2:40 am

Full res ECMWEF had it down to 998 mbar.
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#10 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 16, 2015 7:00 am

The UKMET continues to show development:

Image
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#11 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 16, 2015 7:11 am

Whoa check out the intensity models with the LGEM breaking into CAT 3 range:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L- Models

#12 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 16, 2015 7:54 am

Image

Image
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Re:

#13 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 16, 2015 8:50 am

spiral wrote::uarrow: Fantasy

Reality
:darrow:
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/mac ... t=1&type=1


Right CAT 3 is overdone but I think it might mean development chances for something named are increasing, even if it is a tropical storm.

cycloneye wrote:Image

Image


Luis, I can't see your images.
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Re:

#14 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 16, 2015 9:06 am

TheStormExpert wrote:Well at least the Euro starts to weaken it as it heads towards Puerto Rico 240hrs. out. This means it notices the very unfavorable conditions(shear wise) in the Caribbean/NE Caribbean.

Maybe if it stays at or around 10N most of it's life in the MDR it may possibly have a chance.


Don't forget the Euro also showed zero development of this invest even within short to medium range guidance until the 12Z model run yesterday where it suddenly started showing something and the following 00Z run was even more bullish. Should we actually have any confidence in what the conditions will be like at 240 hours should the invest still be around then and in an area where the Euro shows it (around Puerto Rico / Leewards)?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L- Models

#15 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 16, 2015 9:50 am

Gatorcane,I can I see my images fine.
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Re: Re:

#16 Postby srainhoutx » Sun Aug 16, 2015 9:57 am

gatorcane wrote:
spiral wrote::uarrow: Fantasy

Reality
:darrow:
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/mac ... t=1&type=1


Right CAT 3 is overdone but I think it might mean development chances for something named are increasing, even if it is a tropical storm.

cycloneye wrote:Image

Image


Luis, I can't see your images.


Luis, those images are not showing up for me either.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L- Models

#17 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 16, 2015 10:04 am

Well,I upload them on ImageShack.I don't know if that has to do with it.I have windows 10,the latest Microsoft upgrade.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L- Models

#18 Postby Siker » Sun Aug 16, 2015 10:15 am

I can see the images fine on my iPhone and Windows 7 desktop.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L- Models

#19 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 16, 2015 10:26 am

Oh boy,some see them and others not.what the tech ultimate things do. :D
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#20 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 16, 2015 10:26 am

Luis I see them now
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