ATL: DANNY - Models

[YoshiMike]

The HWRF at 60hrs seems to be starting to slacken the shear looking at the simulated satellite and Danny sure expands just NE of the lesser antilles

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Does this mean you think it has a better chance of surviving than what is anticipated?

Perhaps an example of... "what doesn't kill you, might make you stronger" ("Andrew"? What about Andrew? I NEVER mentioned "him"... musta been someone that yelled out from the cheap seats, LOL)

Very true. Didn't even think of andrew. Just read up that he got down (or up perhaps?) to 1015 MB but afterwards turned into a cat 5. I didn't know too much about andrew as I was born in 95.

[chaser1]

Interestingly, GFDL does weaken Danny by 48 hours to a depression yet re-intensifies the storm to 983 mb at 126 hours and deepening. More importantly though, the model takes the storm north of all the islands and is sitting at 126 hr.'s (http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 04L_22.png) is at 21.0 N and 71.5 W, and looking a bit ominous.

(Euro now updated to 144 hr., and the model has totally dropped Danny. Thats okay though...., GFS doesn't hardly know Danny is there anyway

[Brent]

Looks fishy for the U.S

[beoumont]

Very true. Didn't even think of andrew. Just read up that he got down (or up perhaps?) to 1015 MB but afterwards turned into a cat 5. I didn't know too much about andrew as I was born in 95.

Yes, just before turning west and intensifying, the central pressure was 1015 mb. I recall the recon report noting shortly after the westward turn: "Watching eyewall forming right before our eyes.

YoshMike or anyone else who would like to read what being in Andrew's 175 mph gusts were like, a first hand account from ground zero is here:

http://www.hurricanevideo.citymax.com/andrew.html

Also note that poster "chaser1" is one of only three chasers in the world to ever intercept and experience category 5 winds of a landfalling category five hurricane.

[Siker]

06z GFS maintains a closed low for longer and cleanly misses PR / Hispaniola to the north. Remnants plow into Cuba.

[Blown Away]

[NCSTORMMAN]

Intensity is trending down or up?

[Blown Away]

Intensity is trending down or up?

Based on the graphic above, yes, intensity trending up late in the forecast with most showing near or at hurricane status. I'm thinking these intensity models are a small tool and most of the forecast weight is given to the GFS/Euro which show a degenerating system late in the forecast.

[Dean4Storms]

:uarrow:

Intensity is trending down or up?

Based on the graphic above, yes, intensity trending up late in the forecast with most showing near or at hurricane status. I'm thinking these intensity models are a small tool and most of the forecast weight is given to the GFS/Euro which show a degenerating system late in the forecast.

Most of those models must be missing the deepening trough clear down over Florida by late in the week.

[Blown Away]

Thank goodness Danny forecasted to degenerate because the NHC hugging TVCN Consensus is on SFL.

[northjaxpro]

Well, there is an interesting and significant big difference with EURO and GFS in 144 hours from now. EURO is showing a rather nice ridge at 200 mb across the SW Atlantic basin and in the vicinity of the Bahamas, while GFS is showing a rather impressive trough down all the way into the GOM and into Florida during this same period. This is interesting pertaining to IF there is anything left of Danny by this time next week and the potential influence of either scenario the models are showing.

[wzrgirl1]

That is quite interesting. Think the forecast will change based on that model?

[northjaxpro]

Also, keep in mind that the GFS is notorious of being too aggressive at times of deepening troughs. It is possible it may be doing it with these current runs. Just something to be wary of as we progress in time.

[TheStormExpert]

12z Model Guidance



12z Intensity Guidance

[Weatherboy1]

Thank goodness Danny forecasted to degenerate because the NHC hugging TVCN Consensus is on SFL.

Well correct me if I'm wrong, but the TVCN line previously was cut off by Hispanola. That's because the models were expecting Danny to Peter out (I think). Now, that line is maintained all the way through Florida. Does that mean the concensus is now that a trackable system is expected to be maintained all the way to the 120+ hours timeframe? Just a semi educated amateur; listen to the experts!

[Nederlander]

While Danny was moving north of forecast points yesterday, I wouldn't be surprised if models shift back slightly southward now that he is feeling the ridge and starting a more westward motion. Hispaniola may still be the nail in Danny's coffin. I think even if he passes north, that he will either face a fish scenario or get shredded apart depending on the aggressiveness of the trof.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Blown Away]

12Z

06Z

00Z

[SFLcane]

Interesting for sure..12z guidance continues trend with reintensifiying Danny near Bahamas.

[Hurricaneman]

Interesting for sure..12z guidance continues trend with reintensifiying Danny near Bahamas.

The new GFS is interesting as it never kills off the vorticity with Danny in the Bahamas and if somehow the GFDL comes true the Florida Penninsula and maybe even the Carolinas will have to keep a real close eye on this one because as someone said it could either be nothing or a possible major hurricane landfall. Interesting for sure

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Frank2]

If thats all true, recurve would be the more likely scenario, as models are showing - I woulddn`t mind...