ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[tolakram]

Gone at 72.

[tolakram]

[rockyman]

At 96 hours, the Euro has the ridge building westward over Georgia..possibly blocking the escape route.

[tolakram]

[rockyman]

Euro 5 day:

[otowntiger]

The escape route for what? There is no tropical system left on that map, lol. I'm surprised that there are so few models even depicting the slightest low pressure center after 72 hours. Seems like there is a lot of energy with this system for it to just go poof.

disclaimer: I'm not a pro meteorologist so don't listen to me.

[tolakram]

114 hour Weatherbell graphics show weak low 30kt wind speeds in the big bend area.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

As much trouble as the models have had, the accuracy here has got to be horrible.

[rockyman]

Euro 6 day:

[TheProfessor]

The escape route for what? There is no tropical system left on that map, lol. I'm surprised that there are so few models even depicting the slightest low pressure center after 72 hours. Seems like there is a lot of energy with this system for it to just go poof.

disclaimer: I'm not a pro meteorologist so don't listen to me.

There have been some pretty decent size storms that have just gone poof before, like Don in 2011 when he got eaten by the Texas Death Ridge.

[OuterBanker]

Gone at 72.

Is that Fred around 25W (Cape Verde) I see. Oh goodee another one we can dream and waste our time on.

We should have made a poll on how many long trackers would make it to the US mainland.

[ronjon]

Vorticity pretty strong on the Euro over the GOM - wouldn't write it off yet. Track looks pretty consistent now too.

[tolakram]

Very rare for a Cape Verde system to make it to the east coast. I'm looking for another major to spin harmlessly over water, staying away from all the islands.

[LarryWx]

Gone at 72.

Is that Fred around 25W (Cape Verde) I see. Oh goodee another one we can dream and waste our time on.

We should have made a poll on how many long trackers would make it to the US mainland.

If you had polled me before the season started, I would have said zero based on the 17 prior oncoming strong Nino's. If you mean anything documented that attained TS status east of 50W in the MDR and later hits the CONUS, I could find only two storms since the late 1800's during the 17 oncoming strong El Nino's:

In 1930, this became a TS at 49.8W: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

In 1899, this became a TS at 31W: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Edit: It is going to be hard for this year's Fred to get to the interest level of the prior Fred in 2009. That one was fascinating to follow. I remember even Ninel getting excited about it!

[petit_bois]

Any possibility of a closed low in the GOM in early September is not a good thing. Bear watching.

[OuterBanker]

It just goes to prove just how unique and once in a lifetime 2005 was. Just about everything developed.
I don't think we will ever see that again.

[StarmanHDB]

It just goes to prove just how unique and once in a lifetime 2005 was. Just about everything developed.
I don't think we will ever see that again.

And even though all of those storms and the activity associated with them was exciting, the destruction, deaths, and ruined lives brought about by the 2005 North Atlantic hurricane season should never be repeated again, but as we all know, nature doesn't care what we want. All we can do is learn from the past, hope for the best all the while preparing for the worst. Even though we've had it relatively easy since then, 2005 should always serve as a reminder to always be ready.

[Weatherlover12]

My local weather network said models are shifting east?
Is that true? If so..its a mess

[CYCLONE MIKE]

It just goes to prove just how unique and once in a lifetime 2005 was. Just about everything developed.
I don't think we will ever see that again.

Couldn't agree more, well said. It wasn't called record breaking and historic for nothing, only to be repeated a few years later.