TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
0300 UTC TUE AUG 25 2015
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ERIKA. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS EARLY TUESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 47.7W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 47.7W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 46.9W
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 14.9N 50.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 15.8N 53.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 20SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.5N 56.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 20SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.1N 59.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 20SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.5N 64.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 20SW 50NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 20.5N 69.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 22.0N 73.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 47.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1100 PM AST MON AUG 24 2015
...TROPICAL STORM FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 47.7W
ABOUT 955 MI...1535 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of
Erika. Watches may be required for a portion of the Leeward
Islands early Tuesday.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 47.7 West. Erika is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is
expected during the next couple of days.
Buoy observations and satellite wind data indicate that the maximum
sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some
strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center. Earlier this evening, NOAA buoy 41041 reported
sustained winds of 45 mph with a gust to 51 mph.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA
buoy is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Brown
[ Post details ]
ATL: ERIKA - Advisories
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139083
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
ATL: ERIKA - Advisories
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139083
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: ERIKA - Advisories
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1100 PM AST MON AUG 24 2015
Satellite imagery, buoy observations, and a very recent ASCAT pass
suggest that the circulation associated with the area of low
pressure over the tropical Atlantic has become better defined.
Deep convection also became better organized during the afternoon
and has persisted in a band over the southeastern portion of the
circulation this evening. The NOAA buoy reported peak south-
southwesterly winds of 39 kt, and a minimum pressure of 1004 mb.
Based on these data, advisories are being initiated on a 40-kt
tropical storm. Erika becomes the 5th tropical storm of the 2015
Atlantic hurricane season.
During the next couple of days, Erika will be moving through an
environment characterized by warm water, a moist air mass, and
generally low vertical wind shear. These factors should allow
strengthening. After 48 hours, Erika will be approaching an
upper-level low/trough that is forecast to be near Hispaniola, which
is expected to cause an increase in westerly wind shear. The NHC
intensity forecast calls for steady intensification during the
next 48 hours, and is close to the SHIPS model and intensity
consensus. After that time, the intensity guidance diverges with
the statistical guidance and the HWRF bringing Erika to hurricane
strength. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and GFS weaken the system in about
3 days, due to the increasing shear. The NHC intensity forecast is
between these scenarios and shows no change in strength after 48
hours. Due to the large spread in the intensity guidance, the
intensity forecast at days 3-5 is of low confidence.
Erika is moving quickly westward across the tropical Atlantic or
275/17 kt. The tropical cyclone is forecast to move westward to
west-northwestward to the south of a deep-layer ridge over the
central Atlantic during the next few days. The forward speed of
Erika should gradually decrease as the cyclone nears the western
portion of the ridge. The track guidance is tightly clustered
through 72 hours, with more spread after that time. The
bifurcation appears to be the result of the future strength of
Erika. The models that have a deeper depiction of the cyclone show
more of a northwestward turn late in the period, while the models
that weaken Erika indicate a more westward motion. The NHC forecast
is close to the ECMWF and GFS ensemble mean, which is south of the
consensus but not as far south as the GFS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0300Z 14.4N 47.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 14.9N 50.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 15.8N 53.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 16.5N 56.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 17.1N 59.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 18.5N 64.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 20.5N 69.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 30/0000Z 22.0N 73.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brown
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1100 PM AST MON AUG 24 2015
Satellite imagery, buoy observations, and a very recent ASCAT pass
suggest that the circulation associated with the area of low
pressure over the tropical Atlantic has become better defined.
Deep convection also became better organized during the afternoon
and has persisted in a band over the southeastern portion of the
circulation this evening. The NOAA buoy reported peak south-
southwesterly winds of 39 kt, and a minimum pressure of 1004 mb.
Based on these data, advisories are being initiated on a 40-kt
tropical storm. Erika becomes the 5th tropical storm of the 2015
Atlantic hurricane season.
During the next couple of days, Erika will be moving through an
environment characterized by warm water, a moist air mass, and
generally low vertical wind shear. These factors should allow
strengthening. After 48 hours, Erika will be approaching an
upper-level low/trough that is forecast to be near Hispaniola, which
is expected to cause an increase in westerly wind shear. The NHC
intensity forecast calls for steady intensification during the
next 48 hours, and is close to the SHIPS model and intensity
consensus. After that time, the intensity guidance diverges with
the statistical guidance and the HWRF bringing Erika to hurricane
strength. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and GFS weaken the system in about
3 days, due to the increasing shear. The NHC intensity forecast is
between these scenarios and shows no change in strength after 48
hours. Due to the large spread in the intensity guidance, the
intensity forecast at days 3-5 is of low confidence.
Erika is moving quickly westward across the tropical Atlantic or
275/17 kt. The tropical cyclone is forecast to move westward to
west-northwestward to the south of a deep-layer ridge over the
central Atlantic during the next few days. The forward speed of
Erika should gradually decrease as the cyclone nears the western
portion of the ridge. The track guidance is tightly clustered
through 72 hours, with more spread after that time. The
bifurcation appears to be the result of the future strength of
Erika. The models that have a deeper depiction of the cyclone show
more of a northwestward turn late in the period, while the models
that weaken Erika indicate a more westward motion. The NHC forecast
is close to the ECMWF and GFS ensemble mean, which is south of the
consensus but not as far south as the GFS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0300Z 14.4N 47.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 14.9N 50.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 15.8N 53.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 16.5N 56.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 17.1N 59.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 18.5N 64.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 20.5N 69.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 30/0000Z 22.0N 73.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brown
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139083
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: ERIKA - Advisories
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
500 AM AST TUE AUG 25 2015
The cloud pattern of Erika has not changed much overnight, with the
convection located near the center and in the southern semicircle.
The latest Dvorak estimates are T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB, and
the initial intensity remains 40 kt based on the earlier buoy data.
Erika will be moving over warming SSTs with light to moderate shear
for the next 36 to 48 hours, and the NHC forecast shows steady
intensification during this time. After that, Erika could encounter
increasing westerly shear due to interaction with an upper-level low
near Hispaniola and there is the potential for land interaction with
the Greater Antilles. The HWRF and LGEM models show more
strengthening during this time, while the GFDL and SHIPS models are
less aggressive. There is also disagreement among the global models.
The GFS weakens Erika to a trough by 5 days while the ECMWF has
trended stronger and the UKMET continues to show a more robust
cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted upward a bit
at days 4 and 5 and is close to or a bit below the IVCN intensity
consensus. Due to the large spread in the guidance, the intensity
forecast at days 3-5 is of even lower confidence than usual.
The initial motion estimate of 275/17 is based largely on
continuity, given the difficulty locating the center with infrared
imagery. The track guidance is in good agreement through 36 hours,
as Erika should be steered westward to west-northwestward south of
the subtropical ridge. At 48 hours and beyond, there are two
distinct camps of track guidance. The UKMET, HWRF, and GFDL
show a deeper system that moves northwestward, while the GFS, ECMWF,
and GEFS ensemble mean show a weaker cyclone and a more west-
northwestward motion. The NHC forecast has been nudged a bit
to the right this cycle and remains close to the ECMWF and GEFS
ensemble mean. This track is to the right of the GFS but well left
of the TVCA multi-model consensus. Given the divergence in the
guidance, confidence in the track forecast late in the period is
low.
Based on the new forecast, Tropical Storm Watches have been issued
for portions of the Lesser Antilles.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0900Z 14.6N 49.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 15.2N 51.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 16.0N 54.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 16.9N 57.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 17.6N 61.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 19.3N 66.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 21.5N 71.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 30/0600Z 24.0N 75.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brennan
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
500 AM AST TUE AUG 25 2015
The cloud pattern of Erika has not changed much overnight, with the
convection located near the center and in the southern semicircle.
The latest Dvorak estimates are T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB, and
the initial intensity remains 40 kt based on the earlier buoy data.
Erika will be moving over warming SSTs with light to moderate shear
for the next 36 to 48 hours, and the NHC forecast shows steady
intensification during this time. After that, Erika could encounter
increasing westerly shear due to interaction with an upper-level low
near Hispaniola and there is the potential for land interaction with
the Greater Antilles. The HWRF and LGEM models show more
strengthening during this time, while the GFDL and SHIPS models are
less aggressive. There is also disagreement among the global models.
The GFS weakens Erika to a trough by 5 days while the ECMWF has
trended stronger and the UKMET continues to show a more robust
cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted upward a bit
at days 4 and 5 and is close to or a bit below the IVCN intensity
consensus. Due to the large spread in the guidance, the intensity
forecast at days 3-5 is of even lower confidence than usual.
The initial motion estimate of 275/17 is based largely on
continuity, given the difficulty locating the center with infrared
imagery. The track guidance is in good agreement through 36 hours,
as Erika should be steered westward to west-northwestward south of
the subtropical ridge. At 48 hours and beyond, there are two
distinct camps of track guidance. The UKMET, HWRF, and GFDL
show a deeper system that moves northwestward, while the GFS, ECMWF,
and GEFS ensemble mean show a weaker cyclone and a more west-
northwestward motion. The NHC forecast has been nudged a bit
to the right this cycle and remains close to the ECMWF and GEFS
ensemble mean. This track is to the right of the GFS but well left
of the TVCA multi-model consensus. Given the divergence in the
guidance, confidence in the track forecast late in the period is
low.
Based on the new forecast, Tropical Storm Watches have been issued
for portions of the Lesser Antilles.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0900Z 14.6N 49.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 15.2N 51.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 16.0N 54.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 16.9N 57.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 17.6N 61.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 19.3N 66.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 21.5N 71.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 30/0600Z 24.0N 75.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brennan
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139083
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: ERIKA - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
800 AM AST TUE AUG 25 2015
...ERIKA MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 50.2W
ABOUT 750 MI...1205 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Meteorological Service of St. Maarten has issued a tropical
storm watch for St. Maarten.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Montserrat
* Antigua
* Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Anguilla
* Saba
* St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Erika, as watches may be required for additional areas
later today.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 50.2 West. Erika is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a westward to
west-northwestward motion with a slight decrease in forward speed
is expected during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the
center of Erika will approach the Leeward Islands Wednesday night
and early Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Wednesday night or early Thursday.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
800 AM AST TUE AUG 25 2015
...ERIKA MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 50.2W
ABOUT 750 MI...1205 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Meteorological Service of St. Maarten has issued a tropical
storm watch for St. Maarten.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Montserrat
* Antigua
* Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Anguilla
* Saba
* St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of Erika, as watches may be required for additional areas
later today.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 50.2 West. Erika is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a westward to
west-northwestward motion with a slight decrease in forward speed
is expected during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the
center of Erika will approach the Leeward Islands Wednesday night
and early Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Wednesday night or early Thursday.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139083
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: ERIKA - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 25 2015
...ERIKA SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AT THIS TIME...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 51.0W
ABOUT 730 MI...1170 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Montserrat
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Anguilla
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 51.0 West. Erika is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a
west-northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is
expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the
center of Erika will be near the Leeward Islands Wednesday night
and early Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slow strengthening is possible during the next 48
hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Wednesday night or early Thursday.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 25 2015
The cloud pattern of the system has deteriorated this morning, and
deep convection is rather limited at this time. Microwave and
high-resolution visible imagery indicates that the center is to the
north of the main area of deep convection, and the current intensity
is maintained at 40 kt based on a recent ASCAT overpass. The Air
Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Erika later
today and should provide a good estimate of the strength of
the system. The dynamical guidance indicates that the future
environment of the tropical cyclone will be characterized by
marginal humidity and around 15 to 20 kt of vertical shear. This
should allow for only slow strengthening at best. The official
forecast is similar to the HWRF guidance during the first half of
the forecast period, and close to the model consensus near the end
of the period. Given the current state of the system and the
possibility of stronger shear, however, there is less than usual
confidence in the NHC intensity forecast.
The initial motion is just north of west or 280/17 kt. The track
forecast reasoning is similar to that from the previous advisory
package. Over the next couple of days, Erika should be steered
west-northwestward on the southern side of a subtropical ridge.
Later in the forecast period, the track models diverge with the
HWRF and U.K. Met. office models taking the system more to the
north and east of the consensus and the ECMWF and GFS farther west.
The official forecast leans toward the latter guidance and is left
of the multi-model consensus. Given the significant spread in the
guidance in 3 to 5 days, confidence in the track forecast late in
the period is low.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/1500Z 15.2N 51.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 15.8N 53.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 16.6N 56.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 17.4N 59.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 18.0N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 20.0N 67.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 22.5N 72.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 30/1200Z 24.5N 75.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 25 2015
...ERIKA SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AT THIS TIME...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 51.0W
ABOUT 730 MI...1170 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Montserrat
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Anguilla
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 51.0 West. Erika is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a
west-northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is
expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the
center of Erika will be near the Leeward Islands Wednesday night
and early Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slow strengthening is possible during the next 48
hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Wednesday night or early Thursday.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 25 2015
The cloud pattern of the system has deteriorated this morning, and
deep convection is rather limited at this time. Microwave and
high-resolution visible imagery indicates that the center is to the
north of the main area of deep convection, and the current intensity
is maintained at 40 kt based on a recent ASCAT overpass. The Air
Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Erika later
today and should provide a good estimate of the strength of
the system. The dynamical guidance indicates that the future
environment of the tropical cyclone will be characterized by
marginal humidity and around 15 to 20 kt of vertical shear. This
should allow for only slow strengthening at best. The official
forecast is similar to the HWRF guidance during the first half of
the forecast period, and close to the model consensus near the end
of the period. Given the current state of the system and the
possibility of stronger shear, however, there is less than usual
confidence in the NHC intensity forecast.
The initial motion is just north of west or 280/17 kt. The track
forecast reasoning is similar to that from the previous advisory
package. Over the next couple of days, Erika should be steered
west-northwestward on the southern side of a subtropical ridge.
Later in the forecast period, the track models diverge with the
HWRF and U.K. Met. office models taking the system more to the
north and east of the consensus and the ECMWF and GFS farther west.
The official forecast leans toward the latter guidance and is left
of the multi-model consensus. Given the significant spread in the
guidance in 3 to 5 days, confidence in the track forecast late in
the period is low.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/1500Z 15.2N 51.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 15.8N 53.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 16.6N 56.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 17.4N 59.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 18.0N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 20.0N 67.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 22.5N 72.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 30/1200Z 24.5N 75.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139083
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: ERIKA - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
200 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015
...ERIKA CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 51.8W
ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Montserrat
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Anguilla
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 51.8 West. Erika is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a west-
northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is
expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the
center of Erika will be near the Leeward Islands Wednesday night
and early Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slow strengthening is possible during the next 48
hours. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate Erika later this afternoon.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Wednesday night or early Thursday.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
200 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015
...ERIKA CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 51.8W
ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Montserrat
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Anguilla
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 51.8 West. Erika is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a west-
northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is
expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the
center of Erika will be near the Leeward Islands Wednesday night
and early Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slow strengthening is possible during the next 48
hours. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate Erika later this afternoon.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Wednesday night or early Thursday.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139083
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: ERIKA - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
500 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015
...ERIKA EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
TOMORROW NIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 52.8W
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM E OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Montserrat
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Anguilla
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 52.8 West. Erika is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a west-
northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is
expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the
center of Erika will be near the Leeward Islands Wednesday night
and early Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft was 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Wednesday night or early Thursday.
RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches over many of the Leeward Islands through Thursday.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
500 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015
After becoming quite disorganized in appearance earlier today,
Erika has made a bit of a comeback with increased deep convection
near and to the south of the center. Data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters indicate that the intensity is near 35 kt and
this is consistent with Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB.
Erika has limited upper-level outflow over the northern semicircle
of the circulation, and microwave data suggest that the cyclone has
been ingesting some dry mid-level air. As in the previous
forecast, there is considerable uncertainty as to the future
intensity of this tropical cyclone. The SHIPS guidance indicates
increasing west-northwesterly shear over the next few days, and the
GFS and ECMWF global models do not strengthen the system during the
forecast period. The HWRF and GFDL models do show strengthening,
however, but along a track to the right of most of the guidance.
The official intensity forecast has been reduced a bit from the
previous one and is close to the model consensus.
A center fix from the aircraft indicates that the motion continues
to be near 280/17. A mid-level subtropical ridge to the north of
Erika should steer the system on a west-northwestward track for the
next several days. Late in the forecast period, there is
significant spread in the models, with those models that depict a
weaker system being farther south and west and those having a
stronger cyclone farther to the north and east. The official track
forecast has been adjusted a little to the left of the previous one
and is in line with the latest dynamical model consensus.
Some of the tropical storm watches for the islands of the
northeastern Caribbean may need to be changed to warnings on the
next advisory package.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/2100Z 15.6N 52.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 16.1N 55.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 16.7N 58.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 17.4N 61.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 18.2N 64.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 20.3N 69.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 22.5N 74.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 25.0N 78.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
500 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015
...ERIKA EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
TOMORROW NIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 52.8W
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM E OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Montserrat
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Anguilla
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 52.8 West. Erika is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a west-
northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is
expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the
center of Erika will be near the Leeward Islands Wednesday night
and early Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft was 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Wednesday night or early Thursday.
RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches over many of the Leeward Islands through Thursday.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
500 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015
After becoming quite disorganized in appearance earlier today,
Erika has made a bit of a comeback with increased deep convection
near and to the south of the center. Data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters indicate that the intensity is near 35 kt and
this is consistent with Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB.
Erika has limited upper-level outflow over the northern semicircle
of the circulation, and microwave data suggest that the cyclone has
been ingesting some dry mid-level air. As in the previous
forecast, there is considerable uncertainty as to the future
intensity of this tropical cyclone. The SHIPS guidance indicates
increasing west-northwesterly shear over the next few days, and the
GFS and ECMWF global models do not strengthen the system during the
forecast period. The HWRF and GFDL models do show strengthening,
however, but along a track to the right of most of the guidance.
The official intensity forecast has been reduced a bit from the
previous one and is close to the model consensus.
A center fix from the aircraft indicates that the motion continues
to be near 280/17. A mid-level subtropical ridge to the north of
Erika should steer the system on a west-northwestward track for the
next several days. Late in the forecast period, there is
significant spread in the models, with those models that depict a
weaker system being farther south and west and those having a
stronger cyclone farther to the north and east. The official track
forecast has been adjusted a little to the left of the previous one
and is in line with the latest dynamical model consensus.
Some of the tropical storm watches for the islands of the
northeastern Caribbean may need to be changed to warnings on the
next advisory package.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/2100Z 15.6N 52.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 16.1N 55.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 16.7N 58.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 17.4N 61.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 18.2N 64.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 20.3N 69.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 22.5N 74.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 25.0N 78.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139083
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: ERIKA - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
800 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015
...AIR FORCE AND NOAA PLANES FIND ERIKA POORLY ORGANIZED...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 53.6W
ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM E OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Montserrat
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Anguilla
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 53.6 West. Erika is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a west-
northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is
expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the
center of Erika will be near the Leeward Islands Wednesday night
and early Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slow strengthening is possible during the next 48
hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
to the east of the center.
The minimum central pressure reported by NOAA and Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Wednesday night or early Thursday.
RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches over many of the Leeward Islands through Thursday.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Avila
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
800 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015
...AIR FORCE AND NOAA PLANES FIND ERIKA POORLY ORGANIZED...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 53.6W
ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM E OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Montserrat
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Anguilla
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 53.6 West. Erika is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a west-
northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is
expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the
center of Erika will be near the Leeward Islands Wednesday night
and early Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slow strengthening is possible during the next 48
hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
to the east of the center.
The minimum central pressure reported by NOAA and Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Wednesday night or early Thursday.
RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches over many of the Leeward Islands through Thursday.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Avila
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139083
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: ERIKA - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015
...POORLY ORGANIZED ERIKA CONTINUES TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 54.4W
ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM E OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico and
the U.S Virgin Islands.
The Meteorological Service of Antigua has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning for Anguilla and a Tropical Storm Watch for the
British Virgin Islands.
The Meteorological Service of Curacao has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Saba and St. Eustatius.
The Meteorological Service of St. Maarten has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for St. Maarten.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anguilla
* Saba, St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Montserrat
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy
* Puerto Rico and the U.S Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015
Both NOAA and Air Force hurricane hunter planes investigated Erika
and found a disorganized storm. The central pressure rose to 1006
mb, and the strongest winds were confined to the eastern semicircle.
The low-level center remains exposed to the north of the limited
thunderstorm activity. Based on the current appearance on satellite
imagery, and data from the plane, the initial intensity is
generously kept at 35 kt.
The intensity forecast continues to be highly uncertain. Erika
has a large cyclonic envelope, and this is a favorable factor
for the cyclone to strengthen. However, SHIPS model forecasts
a hostile west-northwesterly shear over the cyclone and, in fact, it
only strengthens Erika a little bit at the end of the forecast
period. This coincides with the solution of the GFS and the ECMWF
global models which either weaken the cyclone or show little
change in strength. The NHC forecast follows the intensity
consensus, and shows a modest strengthening beyond 3 days. By then,
the cyclone is expected to be near the Bahamas where the environment
could be a little more favorable for intensification. However, I
will not be a surprised if Erika dissipates like Danny in the
the northeastern Caribbean Sea where the environment is hostile.
Erika is embedded within the easterly flow south of a moderate
subtropical ridge which is covering the western Atlantic. This
pattern will likely continue to steer Erika between the west and
west-northwest at about 15 kt for the next 2 to 3 days. As the
cyclone reaches the western edge of the ridge in the area of the
Bahamas, the cyclone is then expected to decrease in forward speed.
The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and follows
very closely the multi-model consensus.
Tropical storm watches and warnings have been adjusted and added for
some of the islands of the northeastern Caribbean by the respective
Meteorological Services.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0300Z 16.0N 54.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 16.4N 56.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 17.0N 60.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 17.8N 63.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 18.8N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 21.0N 70.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 30/0000Z 23.0N 75.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 31/0000Z 26.0N 78.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
Forecaster Avila
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015
...POORLY ORGANIZED ERIKA CONTINUES TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 54.4W
ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM E OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico and
the U.S Virgin Islands.
The Meteorological Service of Antigua has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning for Anguilla and a Tropical Storm Watch for the
British Virgin Islands.
The Meteorological Service of Curacao has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Saba and St. Eustatius.
The Meteorological Service of St. Maarten has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for St. Maarten.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anguilla
* Saba, St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Montserrat
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy
* Puerto Rico and the U.S Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015
Both NOAA and Air Force hurricane hunter planes investigated Erika
and found a disorganized storm. The central pressure rose to 1006
mb, and the strongest winds were confined to the eastern semicircle.
The low-level center remains exposed to the north of the limited
thunderstorm activity. Based on the current appearance on satellite
imagery, and data from the plane, the initial intensity is
generously kept at 35 kt.
The intensity forecast continues to be highly uncertain. Erika
has a large cyclonic envelope, and this is a favorable factor
for the cyclone to strengthen. However, SHIPS model forecasts
a hostile west-northwesterly shear over the cyclone and, in fact, it
only strengthens Erika a little bit at the end of the forecast
period. This coincides with the solution of the GFS and the ECMWF
global models which either weaken the cyclone or show little
change in strength. The NHC forecast follows the intensity
consensus, and shows a modest strengthening beyond 3 days. By then,
the cyclone is expected to be near the Bahamas where the environment
could be a little more favorable for intensification. However, I
will not be a surprised if Erika dissipates like Danny in the
the northeastern Caribbean Sea where the environment is hostile.
Erika is embedded within the easterly flow south of a moderate
subtropical ridge which is covering the western Atlantic. This
pattern will likely continue to steer Erika between the west and
west-northwest at about 15 kt for the next 2 to 3 days. As the
cyclone reaches the western edge of the ridge in the area of the
Bahamas, the cyclone is then expected to decrease in forward speed.
The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and follows
very closely the multi-model consensus.
Tropical storm watches and warnings have been adjusted and added for
some of the islands of the northeastern Caribbean by the respective
Meteorological Services.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0300Z 16.0N 54.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 16.4N 56.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 17.0N 60.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 17.8N 63.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 18.8N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 21.0N 70.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 30/0000Z 23.0N 75.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 31/0000Z 26.0N 78.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
Forecaster Avila
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139083
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: ERIKA - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
500 AM AST WED AUG 26 2015
...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 56.0W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM E OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the U.S. Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra.
The Meteorological Service of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Montserrat, Antigua and Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis,
and the British Virgin Islands.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Montserrat
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
500 AM AST WED AUG 26 2015
Convection has increased near and to the east of the estimated
center position of Erika during the past few hours. Subjective and
objective Dvorak estimates remain T2.5/35 kt, and that is the
intensity for this advisory. The central pressure of 1003 mb is
based on a dropsonde from a NOAA aircraft that reported 1004 mb and
25 kt of wind south of the apparent surface center.
The intensity forecast remains very uncertain. Despite the recent
improvement in the convective pattern, the statistical guidance
shows only very gradual strengthening during the forecast period
due to 15 to 25 kt of westerly to northwesterly shear. Another
major negative factor in the SHIPS model is the weakening of the
vortex in the GFS forecast. The HWRF is also very slow to
strengthen Erika in the short term, but continues to show
intensification late in the period. The latest ECMWF run shows a
more robust cyclone in its latest forecast, while the GFS, as
mentioned above, weakens the vortex to a wave in 2 to 3 days. Given
this uncertainty, the NHC forecast remains close to the intensity
consensus and shows very slow intensification in the first 2
to 3 days followed by steadier strengthening at days 4 and 5.
The initial motion estimate is 280/16. Erika will be steered
westward to west-northwestward over the next 2 to 3 days by the
Atlantic subtropical ridge to the north, and the track model
guidance is in good agreement on this scenario. After that time,
the track model guidance shows increasing spread with a lack of run
to run consistency. For example, the latest run of the GFS takes a
much weaker Erika west-northwestward while the new ECMWF run is
stronger with Erika with a track farther to the right. Overall, the
track guidance envelop has shifted a little to the left this cycle,
with the majority of the aids showing a west-northwestward to
northwestward motion as the cyclone nears the western edge of the
ridge by day 5. The NHC forecast follows this trend and is close to
the HWRF and a little to the right of the ECMWF and GEFS ensemble
mean at days 3 through 5. This track is left of the TVCA consensus,
which has been pulled to the right by the outlier GFDL model this
cycle. Given the uncertainty, this is a good time to remind users
that average NHC track forecast errors over the past 5 years are 180
miles at day 4 and 240 miles at day 5.
New tropical storm warnings have been issued for Puerto Rico, the
Virgin Islands, and several other islands in the northeastern
Caribbean by their respective Meteorological Services.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0900Z 16.1N 56.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 16.5N 58.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 17.2N 61.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 18.1N 64.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 19.2N 67.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 21.4N 72.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 24.0N 76.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 31/0600Z 26.0N 79.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brennan
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
500 AM AST WED AUG 26 2015
...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 56.0W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM E OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the U.S. Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra.
The Meteorological Service of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Montserrat, Antigua and Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis,
and the British Virgin Islands.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Montserrat
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
500 AM AST WED AUG 26 2015
Convection has increased near and to the east of the estimated
center position of Erika during the past few hours. Subjective and
objective Dvorak estimates remain T2.5/35 kt, and that is the
intensity for this advisory. The central pressure of 1003 mb is
based on a dropsonde from a NOAA aircraft that reported 1004 mb and
25 kt of wind south of the apparent surface center.
The intensity forecast remains very uncertain. Despite the recent
improvement in the convective pattern, the statistical guidance
shows only very gradual strengthening during the forecast period
due to 15 to 25 kt of westerly to northwesterly shear. Another
major negative factor in the SHIPS model is the weakening of the
vortex in the GFS forecast. The HWRF is also very slow to
strengthen Erika in the short term, but continues to show
intensification late in the period. The latest ECMWF run shows a
more robust cyclone in its latest forecast, while the GFS, as
mentioned above, weakens the vortex to a wave in 2 to 3 days. Given
this uncertainty, the NHC forecast remains close to the intensity
consensus and shows very slow intensification in the first 2
to 3 days followed by steadier strengthening at days 4 and 5.
The initial motion estimate is 280/16. Erika will be steered
westward to west-northwestward over the next 2 to 3 days by the
Atlantic subtropical ridge to the north, and the track model
guidance is in good agreement on this scenario. After that time,
the track model guidance shows increasing spread with a lack of run
to run consistency. For example, the latest run of the GFS takes a
much weaker Erika west-northwestward while the new ECMWF run is
stronger with Erika with a track farther to the right. Overall, the
track guidance envelop has shifted a little to the left this cycle,
with the majority of the aids showing a west-northwestward to
northwestward motion as the cyclone nears the western edge of the
ridge by day 5. The NHC forecast follows this trend and is close to
the HWRF and a little to the right of the ECMWF and GEFS ensemble
mean at days 3 through 5. This track is left of the TVCA consensus,
which has been pulled to the right by the outlier GFDL model this
cycle. Given the uncertainty, this is a good time to remind users
that average NHC track forecast errors over the past 5 years are 180
miles at day 4 and 240 miles at day 5.
New tropical storm warnings have been issued for Puerto Rico, the
Virgin Islands, and several other islands in the northeastern
Caribbean by their respective Meteorological Services.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0900Z 16.1N 56.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 16.5N 58.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 17.2N 61.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 18.1N 64.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 19.2N 67.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 21.4N 72.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 24.0N 76.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 31/0600Z 26.0N 79.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brennan
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139083
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: ERIKA - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1100 AM AST WED AUG 26 2015
...ERIKA CONTINUES WESTWARD TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 57.6W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of France has changed the Tropical Storm Watch to a
Tropical Storm Warning for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Montserrat
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests in the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of
Erika. A Tropical Storm Watch may be required for a portion of the
Dominican Republic later today.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 57.6 West. Erika is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a west to
west-northwestward motion is expected over the next 48 hours.
On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near or over
portions of the Leeward Islands tonight, move near the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday, and be near or just north of
north coast of the Dominican Republic on Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
primarily to the east of the center.
The latest minimum central pressure reported from an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, and reach the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area tonight and early Thursday. Tropical
storm conditions could reach portions of the Dominican Republic on
Friday.
RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through
Friday morning.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Brown
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1100 AM AST WED AUG 26 2015
Deep convection associated with Erika has increased during the past
24 hours, but the overall organization of the tropical cyclone has
not changed very much. Reconnaissance aircraft data indicate that
the center is located near the northwestern edge of the thunderstorm
activity due to moderate northwesterly shear. The aircraft has
measured believable SFMR winds of around 40 kt this morning, and
the initial intensity is set at that value.
Erika is forecast to pass through an environment of moderate to
strong westerly vertical wind shear during the next two to three
days. The shear will be caused by an upper-level low that is
expected to remain near eastern Cuba through Friday. The upper low
is forecast to weaken on Saturday, which should produce a more
conducive upper-level wind pattern over the Bahamas. The NHC
intensity forecast calls for little change in strength through 72
hours, which is in line with the latest statistical guidance. After
that time, strengthening is indicated due to the expected more
favorable upper-level environment. The official forecast lies
between the more robust HWRF/GFDL and lower statistical guidance.
An alternative forecast scenario, supported by the GFS model, is
that Erika weakens to a tropical wave due to the shear and
interaction with the Greater Antilles. The amount of strengthening
on days 4-5 will be dependent in part on how Erika responds to the
the preceding unfavorable shear.
The initial motion estimate is 280/15 kt. Erika is expected to
move westward to west-northwestward during the next several days
to the south of a subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic.
The track guidance is in good agreement through much of the forecast
period, with the exception of the GFDL model that takes a stronger
storm northwestward much sooner. The new NHC track is essentially
an update of the previous advisory and is close to a consensus of
the ECMWF, GFS, HWRF, and UKMET. This is also in good agreement
with the Florida State Superensemble. One should remember to not
focus on the exact forecast track, especially at the long range
where the average NHC track errors during the past 5 years are about
180 miles at day 4 and 240 miles at day 5.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/1500Z 16.1N 57.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 16.7N 59.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 17.6N 63.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 18.7N 65.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 19.8N 68.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 22.0N 73.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 24.4N 77.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 31/1200Z 26.5N 80.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
$$
Forecaster Brown
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1100 AM AST WED AUG 26 2015
...ERIKA CONTINUES WESTWARD TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 57.6W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of France has changed the Tropical Storm Watch to a
Tropical Storm Warning for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Montserrat
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests in the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of
Erika. A Tropical Storm Watch may be required for a portion of the
Dominican Republic later today.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 57.6 West. Erika is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a west to
west-northwestward motion is expected over the next 48 hours.
On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near or over
portions of the Leeward Islands tonight, move near the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday, and be near or just north of
north coast of the Dominican Republic on Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
primarily to the east of the center.
The latest minimum central pressure reported from an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, and reach the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area tonight and early Thursday. Tropical
storm conditions could reach portions of the Dominican Republic on
Friday.
RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through
Friday morning.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Brown
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1100 AM AST WED AUG 26 2015
Deep convection associated with Erika has increased during the past
24 hours, but the overall organization of the tropical cyclone has
not changed very much. Reconnaissance aircraft data indicate that
the center is located near the northwestern edge of the thunderstorm
activity due to moderate northwesterly shear. The aircraft has
measured believable SFMR winds of around 40 kt this morning, and
the initial intensity is set at that value.
Erika is forecast to pass through an environment of moderate to
strong westerly vertical wind shear during the next two to three
days. The shear will be caused by an upper-level low that is
expected to remain near eastern Cuba through Friday. The upper low
is forecast to weaken on Saturday, which should produce a more
conducive upper-level wind pattern over the Bahamas. The NHC
intensity forecast calls for little change in strength through 72
hours, which is in line with the latest statistical guidance. After
that time, strengthening is indicated due to the expected more
favorable upper-level environment. The official forecast lies
between the more robust HWRF/GFDL and lower statistical guidance.
An alternative forecast scenario, supported by the GFS model, is
that Erika weakens to a tropical wave due to the shear and
interaction with the Greater Antilles. The amount of strengthening
on days 4-5 will be dependent in part on how Erika responds to the
the preceding unfavorable shear.
The initial motion estimate is 280/15 kt. Erika is expected to
move westward to west-northwestward during the next several days
to the south of a subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic.
The track guidance is in good agreement through much of the forecast
period, with the exception of the GFDL model that takes a stronger
storm northwestward much sooner. The new NHC track is essentially
an update of the previous advisory and is close to a consensus of
the ECMWF, GFS, HWRF, and UKMET. This is also in good agreement
with the Florida State Superensemble. One should remember to not
focus on the exact forecast track, especially at the long range
where the average NHC track errors during the past 5 years are about
180 miles at day 4 and 240 miles at day 5.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/1500Z 16.1N 57.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 16.7N 59.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 17.6N 63.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 18.7N 65.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 19.8N 68.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 22.0N 73.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 24.4N 77.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 31/1200Z 26.5N 80.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
$$
Forecaster Brown
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139083
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: ERIKA - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
200 PM AST WED AUG 26 2015
...ERIKA CONTINUES WESTWARD...
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ON ITS WAY TO INVESTIGATE
THE STORM...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 58.2W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Montserrat
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests in the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and
the Turks and Caicos Islands should monitor the progress of Erika.
A Tropical Storm Watch may be required for a portion of the
Dominican Republic later today.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 58.2 West. Erika is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a west to
west-northwestward motion is expected over the next 48 hours.
On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near or over
portions of the Leeward Islands tonight, move near the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday, and be near or just north of
the north coast of the Dominican Republic on Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
primarily to the east of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, and reach the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area tonight and early Thursday. Tropical
storm conditions could reach portions of the Dominican Republic on
Friday.
RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through
Friday morning.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Brown
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
200 PM AST WED AUG 26 2015
...ERIKA CONTINUES WESTWARD...
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ON ITS WAY TO INVESTIGATE
THE STORM...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 58.2W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Montserrat
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests in the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and
the Turks and Caicos Islands should monitor the progress of Erika.
A Tropical Storm Watch may be required for a portion of the
Dominican Republic later today.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 58.2 West. Erika is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a west to
west-northwestward motion is expected over the next 48 hours.
On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near or over
portions of the Leeward Islands tonight, move near the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday, and be near or just north of
the north coast of the Dominican Republic on Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
primarily to the east of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, and reach the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area tonight and early Thursday. Tropical
storm conditions could reach portions of the Dominican Republic on
Friday.
RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through
Friday morning.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Brown
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139083
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: ERIKA - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
500 PM AST WED AUG 26 2015
...ERIKA EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 58.9W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM E OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical
Storm Watch for the north coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo
Engano to Cabo Frances Viejo.
The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Montserrat
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Cabo
Frances Viejo
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic should monitor the
progress of Erika.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 58.9 West. Erika is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west-northwestward
motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected over the next
48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near
or over portions of the Leeward Islands tonight, move near the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday, and be near or just
north of the north coast of the Dominican Republic on Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
primarily to the east of the center.
The latest minimum central pressure estimated from data from a
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, and reach the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area in the Leeward Islands tonight and early
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions could reach portions of the
Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and Turks and Caicos
Islands on Friday.
RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the
Dominican Republic through Friday.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Brown
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
500 PM AST WED AUG 26 2015
The satellite presentation of the tropical storm has become less
organized since the previous advisory, with the low-level center
becoming exposed to the northwest of the thunderstorm activity.
A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Erika this afternoon
has not found flight-level or SFMR winds as strong as reported this
morning, but the aircraft did not sample much of the eastern portion
of the circulation. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt, but
this could be generous.
The intensity forecast philosophy has not changed since this
morning. Erika is forecast to move through an area of moderate to
strong westerly shear during the next two to three days. Although
the NHC intensity forecast during that time shows no change in
intensity, weakening is possible during the next couple of days. In
fact, Erika could degenerate into a trough of low pressure due to
the shear and interaction with the Greater Antilles. After 72
hours, the upper-level environment is forecast to become more
conducive for development and all of the guidance, including the
global models, shows intensification. Therefore, the days 4 and 5
intensity forecast again calls for strengthening, but is below the
intensity consensus and near the SHIPS model. The official forecast
leans toward the lower side of the guidance to reflect the
possibility that the cyclone's structure would be too disrupted to
fully take advantage of the more conducive environment late in the
period.
The initial motion remains 280/15 kt. Erika is forecast to move
west-northwestward during the next three to four days to the south
of a subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. After that time,
the global models show a weakness in the ridge developing over the
far western Atlantic, which should cause Erika to turn
northwestward. All of the models have shifted eastward at days
four and five, but the normally reliable GFS and ECMWF define
the western edge of the guidance. Out of respect of
these models and the previous NHC forecast, the updated track
has only been moved slightly eastward late in the period. As a
result, the new forecast lies west of the multi-model consensus at
96 and 120 h. One should remember to not focus on the exact forecast
track, especially at the long range where the average NHC track
errors during the past 5 years are about 180 miles at day 4 and 240
miles at day 5.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/2100Z 16.6N 58.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 17.1N 61.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 18.1N 64.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 19.2N 66.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 20.5N 69.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 22.7N 74.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 25.0N 77.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 31/1800Z 27.5N 80.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brown
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
500 PM AST WED AUG 26 2015
...ERIKA EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 58.9W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM E OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical
Storm Watch for the north coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo
Engano to Cabo Frances Viejo.
The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Montserrat
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Cabo
Frances Viejo
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic should monitor the
progress of Erika.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 58.9 West. Erika is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west-northwestward
motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected over the next
48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near
or over portions of the Leeward Islands tonight, move near the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday, and be near or just
north of the north coast of the Dominican Republic on Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
primarily to the east of the center.
The latest minimum central pressure estimated from data from a
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, and reach the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area in the Leeward Islands tonight and early
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions could reach portions of the
Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and Turks and Caicos
Islands on Friday.
RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the
Dominican Republic through Friday.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Brown
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
500 PM AST WED AUG 26 2015
The satellite presentation of the tropical storm has become less
organized since the previous advisory, with the low-level center
becoming exposed to the northwest of the thunderstorm activity.
A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Erika this afternoon
has not found flight-level or SFMR winds as strong as reported this
morning, but the aircraft did not sample much of the eastern portion
of the circulation. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt, but
this could be generous.
The intensity forecast philosophy has not changed since this
morning. Erika is forecast to move through an area of moderate to
strong westerly shear during the next two to three days. Although
the NHC intensity forecast during that time shows no change in
intensity, weakening is possible during the next couple of days. In
fact, Erika could degenerate into a trough of low pressure due to
the shear and interaction with the Greater Antilles. After 72
hours, the upper-level environment is forecast to become more
conducive for development and all of the guidance, including the
global models, shows intensification. Therefore, the days 4 and 5
intensity forecast again calls for strengthening, but is below the
intensity consensus and near the SHIPS model. The official forecast
leans toward the lower side of the guidance to reflect the
possibility that the cyclone's structure would be too disrupted to
fully take advantage of the more conducive environment late in the
period.
The initial motion remains 280/15 kt. Erika is forecast to move
west-northwestward during the next three to four days to the south
of a subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. After that time,
the global models show a weakness in the ridge developing over the
far western Atlantic, which should cause Erika to turn
northwestward. All of the models have shifted eastward at days
four and five, but the normally reliable GFS and ECMWF define
the western edge of the guidance. Out of respect of
these models and the previous NHC forecast, the updated track
has only been moved slightly eastward late in the period. As a
result, the new forecast lies west of the multi-model consensus at
96 and 120 h. One should remember to not focus on the exact forecast
track, especially at the long range where the average NHC track
errors during the past 5 years are about 180 miles at day 4 and 240
miles at day 5.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/2100Z 16.6N 58.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 17.1N 61.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 18.1N 64.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 19.2N 66.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 20.5N 69.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 22.7N 74.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 25.0N 77.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 31/1800Z 27.5N 80.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brown
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139083
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: ERIKA - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
800 PM AST WED AUG 26 2015
...POORLY ORGANIZED ERIKA EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 59.5W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM E OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Montserrat
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Cabo
Frances Viejo
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic should monitor the
progress of Erika.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 59.5 West. Erika is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west-northwestward
motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected over the next
48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near
or over portions of the Leeward Islands tonight, move near the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday, and be near or just
north of the north coast of the Dominican Republic on Friday.
Both NOAA and Air Force planes are currently investigating Erika,
and the maximum sustained winds are still likely to be near 45 mph
(75 km/h) with higher gusts. These winds are confined to heavy
squalls to the southeast of the center. Little change in strength or
perhaps some slight weakening could occur during the next 48 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
to the east of the center.
The latest minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, and reach the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area in the Leeward Islands tonight and early
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions could reach portions of the
Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and Turks and Caicos
Islands on Friday.
RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the
Dominican Republic through Friday.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Avila
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
800 PM AST WED AUG 26 2015
...POORLY ORGANIZED ERIKA EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 59.5W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM E OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Montserrat
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Cabo
Frances Viejo
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic should monitor the
progress of Erika.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 59.5 West. Erika is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west-northwestward
motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected over the next
48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near
or over portions of the Leeward Islands tonight, move near the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday, and be near or just
north of the north coast of the Dominican Republic on Friday.
Both NOAA and Air Force planes are currently investigating Erika,
and the maximum sustained winds are still likely to be near 45 mph
(75 km/h) with higher gusts. These winds are confined to heavy
squalls to the southeast of the center. Little change in strength or
perhaps some slight weakening could occur during the next 48 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
to the east of the center.
The latest minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, and reach the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area in the Leeward Islands tonight and early
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions could reach portions of the
Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and Turks and Caicos
Islands on Friday.
RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the
Dominican Republic through Friday.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Avila
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139083
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: ERIKA - Advisories
BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF ERIKA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
930 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015
...ERIKA DEGENERATES TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...
SUMMARY OF 930 AM EDT...1330 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 75.9W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
All coastal watches and warnings are discontinued.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in the Bahamas, eastern and central Cuba, and southern
Florida should monitor the progress of the remnants of Erika.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 930 AM EDT (1330 UTC), the remnants of Erika were estimated near
latitude 21.5 North, longitude 75.9 West. The remnants are moving
toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h). This general
motion should continue for the next 24 hours or so, with the
remnants expected to move near the coast of eastern and central
Cuba today and tonight and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on
Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The remnants of Erika are expected to produce total
rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10
inches possible across portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti and
eastern and central Cuba through Sunday. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. In addition, rainfall
amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected across the Turks and Caicos
Islands as well as the southeastern and central Bahamas through
Sunday. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches, with locally heavier
amounts, are possible across southern and central Florida beginning
on Sunday.
WIND: Gusts to tropical storm force are expected in squalls over
portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern
Bahamas for the next several hours. These conditions are expected
to spread into the central Bahamas this afternoon and tonight.
Gusts to tropical storm force in squalls are also possible over
eastern Cuba today. Gusty winds could occur over southern Florida
beginning on Sunday.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system will
be available in Tropical Weather Outlooks issued by the National
Hurricane Center, as well as marine forecasts and local forecast
office products issued by the National Weather Service.
$$
Forecaster Beven
NNNN
REMNANTS OF ERIKA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
930 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015
Surface observations from Cuba, satellite imagery, and reports from
an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Erika
has degenerated into a trough of low pressure, with the remnants of
the center located near the north coast of eastern Cuba. Winds of
near 30 kt are occurring to the north and east of the center, and
these conditions will likely continue through at least this
afternoon.
The remnants are expected to move west-northwestward near the
northern coast of central and eastern Cuba for the next 12 to 24
hours and reach the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in about 36 hours.
After that time, a more northward motion is expected over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico.
The dynamical models suggests that the current strong wind shear
could relax by the time the system reachs the Gulf of Mexico, and
there is a possibility that Erika could regenerate. Regardless of
regeneration, locally heavy rains and gusty winds should spread
across portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and southern Florida during
the next couple of days.
This will be the last advisory on this system by the National
Hurricane Center unless regeneration occurs. Additional information
can be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National
Hurricane Center, as well as marine forecasts and local forecast
office products issued by the National Weather Service.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/1330Z 21.5N 75.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...REMNANTS
12H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
REMNANTS OF ERIKA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
930 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015
...ERIKA DEGENERATES TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...
SUMMARY OF 930 AM EDT...1330 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 75.9W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
All coastal watches and warnings are discontinued.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in the Bahamas, eastern and central Cuba, and southern
Florida should monitor the progress of the remnants of Erika.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 930 AM EDT (1330 UTC), the remnants of Erika were estimated near
latitude 21.5 North, longitude 75.9 West. The remnants are moving
toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h). This general
motion should continue for the next 24 hours or so, with the
remnants expected to move near the coast of eastern and central
Cuba today and tonight and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on
Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The remnants of Erika are expected to produce total
rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10
inches possible across portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti and
eastern and central Cuba through Sunday. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. In addition, rainfall
amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected across the Turks and Caicos
Islands as well as the southeastern and central Bahamas through
Sunday. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches, with locally heavier
amounts, are possible across southern and central Florida beginning
on Sunday.
WIND: Gusts to tropical storm force are expected in squalls over
portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern
Bahamas for the next several hours. These conditions are expected
to spread into the central Bahamas this afternoon and tonight.
Gusts to tropical storm force in squalls are also possible over
eastern Cuba today. Gusty winds could occur over southern Florida
beginning on Sunday.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system will
be available in Tropical Weather Outlooks issued by the National
Hurricane Center, as well as marine forecasts and local forecast
office products issued by the National Weather Service.
$$
Forecaster Beven
NNNN
REMNANTS OF ERIKA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
930 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015
Surface observations from Cuba, satellite imagery, and reports from
an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Erika
has degenerated into a trough of low pressure, with the remnants of
the center located near the north coast of eastern Cuba. Winds of
near 30 kt are occurring to the north and east of the center, and
these conditions will likely continue through at least this
afternoon.
The remnants are expected to move west-northwestward near the
northern coast of central and eastern Cuba for the next 12 to 24
hours and reach the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in about 36 hours.
After that time, a more northward motion is expected over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico.
The dynamical models suggests that the current strong wind shear
could relax by the time the system reachs the Gulf of Mexico, and
there is a possibility that Erika could regenerate. Regardless of
regeneration, locally heavy rains and gusty winds should spread
across portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and southern Florida during
the next couple of days.
This will be the last advisory on this system by the National
Hurricane Center unless regeneration occurs. Additional information
can be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National
Hurricane Center, as well as marine forecasts and local forecast
office products issued by the National Weather Service.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/1330Z 21.5N 75.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...REMNANTS
12H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 120 guests