ATL: GRACE - Models

Hammy · #41 Postby **Hammy** » Sat Sep 05, 2015 12:35 pm

Given the trend towards being similar to Erika's initial track, present conditions, and what happened with that, I'm going to go out on a limb and say this will probably do the exact same thing. The models right now are basically showing us what -isn't- going to happen. :lol:

#42 Postby **chaser1** » Sat Sep 05, 2015 1:39 pm

As unscientific as it is, it really is hard to anticipate TD 7 being much different that what those storms before (Danny, Erika) have shown thus far. Then when one adds the additional low model confidence, and apparent increase in upper level winds.... there's little reason to have much confidence that an Eastern Atlantic system might risk regions west of 70W. That said, there still needs to be a vigilant eye on those systems that may well threaten those islands east of, and including Puerto Rico. I still believe that the greatest risk to the CONUS lies closer to the end of Sept. and beginning of Oct. This of course will be dependant on many factors (especially strong upper level shear), however the SST's will certainly be plenty warm still.

#43 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Sep 05, 2015 1:48 pm

12Z guidance:

#44 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Sep 05, 2015 1:57 pm

Though the 12Z ECMWF does not develop TD #7, it brings the TD #7 as a tropical wave all the way to the Bahamas and South Florida in the long-range at 240 hours. The vorticity does interact with the Greater Antilles some along the way so probably so much needed rainfall for Puerto Rico.

240 hours below, with the wave over Southern Florida:

#45 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Sep 05, 2015 2:03 pm

Another view of the 12Z ECMWF showing a TD #7 as a weak low over the FL keys in the long-range (10 days from now) - but it does interact with the Greater Antilles long the way and might be why it has a much weaker depiction of the system than the 12Z GFS which is stronger and more to the right.

LarryWx · #46 Postby **LarryWx** » Sat Sep 05, 2015 2:11 pm

chaser1 wrote:I still believe that the greatest risk to the CONUS lies closer to the end of Sept. and beginning of Oct. This of course will be dependant on many factors (especially strong upper level shear), however the SST's will certainly be plenty warm still.

Have we been looking at the same analogs?

#47 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Sep 05, 2015 2:39 pm

MUCH different shear forecast from the GFS on the 12Z from previous runs. Image below at 222 hours where the GFS starts to ramp up TD #7 a little north of Hispaniola area. Nice upper anticyclone right on top of TD #7. Also the Eastern Caribbean doesn't look too hostile. That is why it is really pointless to look at the shear forecasts from the models in the long-range. I am only posting this because we keep hearing about all the shear waiting for TD #7, but that is assuming the long-range models are correct. Afterall it is nearing the climatological peak in the Atlantic season:

#48 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Sep 05, 2015 2:49 pm

18Z Guidance:

#49 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Sep 05, 2015 3:17 pm

12Z GFS Ensemble tracks out through the long-range by day 10:

#50 Postby **tolakram** » Sat Sep 05, 2015 3:21 pm

gatorcane wrote:MUCH different shear forecast from the GFS on the 12Z from previous runs. Image below at 222 hours where the GFS starts to ramp up TD #7 a little north of Hispaniola area. Nice upper anticyclone right on top of TD #7. Also the Eastern Caribbean doesn't look too hostile. That is why it is really pointless to look at the shear forecasts from the models in the long-range. I am only posting this because we keep hearing about all the shear waiting for TD #7, but that is assuming the long-range models are correct. Afterall it is nearing the climatological peak in the Atlantic season:

http://i.imgur.com/vobkIS0.png

For Erika I avoided commenting too much but ... I just can't see that shear forecast being accurate during a very strong el nino. Never say never, of course, long way out, but the odds seem slim to none.

#51 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Sep 05, 2015 4:48 pm

18Z GFS coming in quite a bit stronger through 48 hours, down to 995MB:

#52 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Sep 05, 2015 5:51 pm

no significant development in the long-range this time on the GFS this time because it looks like it sends Grace into the Greater Antilles so too much land interaction.

#53 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Sep 05, 2015 6:07 pm

the biggest difference is it develops the wave behind Grace. The 12Z showed no such development. Could be focusing more energy with that wave

emeraldislenc · #54 Postby **emeraldislenc** » Sat Sep 05, 2015 7:11 pm

So the next wave could be interesting ?

#55 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 05, 2015 7:58 pm

00z Guidance.

#56 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sat Sep 05, 2015 8:10 pm

Luis, in the model graphic above what is the EGR2? Is that a consensus model or what does it mean?

Sent from my iPhone6 using Tapatalk

#57 Postby **StormTracker** » Sat Sep 05, 2015 8:14 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:Luis, in the model graphic above what is the EGR2? Is that a consensus model or what does it mean?

Sent from my iPhone6 using Tapatalk

I think that's like the XTRAP! The direction it would go if none of the forces around it affected it, I think...ST

ronjon · #58 Postby **ronjon** » Sat Sep 05, 2015 8:20 pm

ERG2 is the UKMET model.

#59 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 05, 2015 8:26 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:Luis, in the model graphic above what is the EGR2? Is that a consensus model or what does it mean?

Sent from my iPhone6 using Tapatalk

Is the UKMET model as our friend ronjon said.

#60 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Sep 05, 2015 8:37 pm

18Z GFS ensemble tracks through day 10:

ATL: GRACE - Models

Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

Re: ATL: SEVEN - Models

Re:

Re: ATL: GRACE - Models

Re: ATL: GRACE - Models

ATL: GRACE - Models

Re: ATL: GRACE - Models

Re: ATL: GRACE - Models

Re: ATL: GRACE - Models

Who is online