ATL: GRACE - Models

[cycloneye]

Shear will be relentless.

Code: Select all

                   * ATLANTIC     SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  GRACE       AL072015  09/07/15  12 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    40    39    37    36    35    36    34    33    33    34    34    36    37
V (KT) LAND       40    39    37    36    35    36    34    33    33    34    34    36    37
V (KT) LGE mod    40    39    37    36    36    34    32    30    29    29    28    28    28
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        11    14    17    19    20    20    24    23    22    23    30    33    28
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     6    10     9     7     4     4     1     3     3     1     0     0    -1
SHEAR DIR        265   254   255   251   255   260   271   262   279   258   261   257   279
SST (C)         28.1  28.1  28.1  28.1  28.1  27.8  27.9  28.0  28.3  28.9  29.0  28.9  29.1
POT. INT. (KT)   140   140   140   140   140   136   137   138   142   151   153   151   154
ADJ. POT. INT.   141   141   141   140   141   137   138   137   140   149   151   148   151
200 MB T (C)   -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2
TH_E DEV (C)       8     9    10    10    10    11    11    13    13    14    14    15    14
700-500 MB RH     45    44    44    47    46    47    46    48    45    48    48    51    53
MODEL VTX (KT)    14    13    13    12    12    12    11    10     9     9     8     8     6
850 MB ENV VOR    26    20    16    11     8     3   -18   -20   -29   -24   -36   -26   -20
200 MB DIV       -12    -7     1     8     0    24    -3    10     0    -1    -1    28    10
700-850 TADV      -3    -4    -7    -8    -5     0    -3    -8    -3    -6    -1    -5    -3
LAND (KM)       1900  1929  1807  1688  1578  1390  1238  1140   977   769   658   459   202
LAT (DEG N)     13.6  13.8  13.9  14.0  14.1  14.5  15.0  15.4  15.7  16.0  16.4  16.7  17.0
LONG(DEG W)     35.1  36.6  38.1  39.6  41.1  44.3  47.5  50.6  53.5  56.3  59.0  61.7  64.3
STM SPEED (KT)    15    15    15    15    15    16    16    15    14    13    13    13    12
HEAT CONTENT      11    10    11     8     8    28    34    21    23    36    61    44    44

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15      CX,CY: -14/  3
  T-12 MAX WIND:  45            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  606  (MEAN=624)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  20.2 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  52.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  12.  12.  13.  14.
  SST POTENTIAL          1.   2.   2.   4.   7.  10.  14.  16.  19.  21.  22.  23.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     0.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -3.  -5.  -7.  -9. -12. -14. -15.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ    -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -3.  -3.  -2.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -7. -10. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18.
  PERSISTENCE           -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -3.  -3.  -2.  -1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   3.   4.   5.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -4.  -5.  -7.  -7.  -8.  -8.  -9.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -4.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.   4.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE          -1.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -4.  -6.  -7.  -7.  -6.  -6.  -4.  -3.

   ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072015 GRACE      09/07/15  12 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):  -5.0 Range:-49.5 to  33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  1.5
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  16.3 Range: 28.8 to   2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.6
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  20.2 Range: 37.5 to   2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.6
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  58.0 Range: 43.2 to  93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.4
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 100.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.4
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :   9.6 Range:  0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  -2.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.0
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  41.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.1
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    14% is   1.1 times the sample mean(11.9%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=     8% is   1.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     4% is   0.9 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     3% is   1.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072015 GRACE      09/07/15  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072015 GRACE      09/07/2015  12 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

[LarryWx]

If the above shear forecast is close to reality, Grace will be have virtually no chance to remain a TC within a few days. I don't understand why the GFS shear I've seen has been forecasted to be so much lower for the same area/period.

[gatorcane]

The only model left that I see develops Grace as it approaches the Leewards is the NAVGEM model. It's not a good model and is an outlier. It also thought Danny would intensify too and head north of the islands but it did not. Saved image of how the 12Z run ends for the curious reader:

[Weatherlover12]

This hurricane season has been boring. I guess we have to wait till 2016 for action. Even tho hurricane season ends nov 30. It's just disappointing to prepare for something and then it doesn't come. Yes, I live I'm FL and it's been 10 years... I'm still hyped over tropical weather still. Everyone here is more complacent now. Some has forgot that FL gets tropical systems. Idk when the next time we'll get something. But whenever I'll be skeptical and prepared.
Just wanted to share this thought

[CaliforniaResident]

This hurricane season has been boring. I guess we have to wait till 2016 for action. Even tho hurricane season ends nov 30. It's just disappointing to prepare for something and then it doesn't come. Yes, I live I'm FL and it's been 10 years... I'm still hyped over tropical weather still. Everyone here is more complacent now. Some has forgot that FL gets tropical systems. Idk when the next time we'll get something. But whenever I'll be skeptical and prepared.
Just wanted to share this thought

2016 will likely be La Nina as it usually follows a strong El Nino.
Watch out! It could be like 2004 or even 2005 with hurricane after hurricane with several of them (including a couple of majors) with bullseye towards the SEUS!

[gatorcane]

The ECMWF continues to send the remnants of Grace into the SE Bahamas and Southern Florida in the long-range but without significant development:

[Weatherlover12]

The ECMWF continues to send the remnants of Grace into the SE Bahamas and Southern Florida in the long-range but without significant development:

http://i.imgur.com/X3DI7bj.png

Couldn't that generate into something?
Cause I thought the Bahamas was favorable?

[gatorcane]

What in the world is the NAVGEM seeing?

00Z Guidance:

[LarryWx]

Fwiw, (not much more than entertainment), the 12Z CMC has Grace degenerate into an open wave but then later reintensifies it into a TC and threatens the NE US 9/16-7 with a TS hit. Again, fwiw.

[Hammy]

Fwiw, (not much more than entertainment), the 12Z CMC has Grace degenerate into an open wave but then later reintensifies it into a TC and threatens the NE US 9/16-7 with a TS hit. Again, fwiw.

Euro shows some amount of vorticity (even a weak closed low) reaching south Florida as well.

[gatorcane]

EURO hints of possible regeneration of Grace in the Bahamas

[SouthFLTropics]

EURO hints of possible regeneration of Grace in the Bahamas

I'm not going to start drinking any development Kool Aid until it is above the Greater Antilles. We've been down this road once already this season.

On a side note...Some of our local news stations have been giving track/strength updates on Grace every 6 hours on their iPhone Apps. They have got to stop hyping these things up like this. It is a serious boy who cries wolf syndrome and it leads to complacency and might just end up getting some people killed when we have a real threat. Just my two cents.

[blp]

Here is the vorticity Gatorcane was referencing on the 00z Euro. Nice vorticity, let's see what 12z shows

[SouthFLTropics]

The GEM is drinking the Kool Aid at hour 168...

[SouthFLTropics]

Crosses into the GOM and is real strong Kool Aid at hour 240...Fantasy land at this point...

[Weatherlover12]

Are the models think this is coming from grace or is this something new that forms in Bahamas? I found it odd remnants could make it that far

Not a pro met.

[LarryWx]

Are the models think this is coming from grace or is this something new that forms in Bahamas? I found it odd remnants could make it that far

Not a pro met.

Definitely from Grace. It is clear to me when I follow the model at 12 hour increments. Regardless, I'm taking the details with a grain of salt at this time since even just 7 days out is still solidly in fantasyland for the CMC. Let's see what the 12Z Euro shows.

[BigB0882]

Is that from Grace or from what some of the models are showing in the BOC?

[emeraldislenc]

Very Interesting!

[LarryWx]

For entertainment: the 0Z Crazy Uncle (CMC) takes the remnants of Grace through the NE Caribbean, then across Hispaniola, and then to the NW Bahamas, where it stalls underneath an upper high, strengthens into a TS, and then turns west across central FL as what looks like a TS. Then it gets to the far NE GOM, where it turns N and gets even stronger (992 mb). What a nutty model!

More seriously, let's hope the remnants can give Luis et al some good rains in the NE Caribbean Fri-Sat!