ATL: NINE - Models

[gatorcane]

Models are really struggling this season. The Euro may just get this right with no development

[Gustywind]

Models are really struggling this season. The Euro may just get this right with no development

Again... i told you that yesterday Gatorcane. We should take the models carefully. Struggling... is an euphemisma. But let's wait and see, we could have others surprises in store.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I'm not surprised the Euro is backing off on development (and I'll believe a weak Euro solution over a strong GFS one given the latter's equally terrible history) as this system is really a mess at the surface. It seems to be a very elongated trough, with winds simply flowing directly from one low pressure area to another. I don't see anything beyond just being strong ITCZ activity.

Why would a system's current structure preclude eventual significant strengthening? The GFS doesn't say this will be a major hurricane

Very often the models have difficulty with less organized systems and have a bad tendency to overdevelop them. And far too often I've seen systems that are forecast to develop when they are in a setup like this but don't--there are two very strong waves fairly close together and that generally leads to neither developing since one can't get organized while being so close to the other.

You might win this time as far as 93L is concerned. Models nowhere near as enthusiastic about it as they have been in previous days.

Still think 95L has good potential to become a stronger storm though, as opposed to neither of them developing.

[gatorcane]

The 12Z ECMWF refuses to develop this and the GFS and GEM no longer develop it either. Not sure why NHC is keeping development so high.

[Weatherwatcher98]

Models are really struggling this season. The Euro may just get this right with no development

agree seems like elnino and mjo spikes compiled with false hopes of Kelvin waves have been our downfall

[gatorcane]

None of the 12Z Global models show development any longer - HORRENDOUS year for the global models which need some serious updating of the code (or perhaps rolling back to previous code as in the GFS and ECMWF case). If there is any silver lining, at least it is a type B error where they over develop but don't under develop (except of course for micro Danny which impacted nobody while a major).

[Alyono]

year not as bad as gator is saying, aside from the ECMWF and CMC. Most other model storms have developed this year, unlike 2013 where none developed

[Hurricaneman]

I was wrong in another thread, the models seem to be not developing the current low much but the wave with it continues west and the models indicate that maybe the area that was lemoned a few days ago and the wave connected to 93L might combine and form a low near the east coast next week. so a piece of 93L may still be interesting after all

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[gatorcane]

The GFS has been trending more towards what looks like sending a low towards the west which looks to originate from this TD and some other piece of energy over the Central Atlantic (hard to tell). There it is at 210 hours 1007MB low off the SE U.S. coast. Eventually the low turns north but this is all in the long-range so who knows.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z CMC turns this into a 952 mb monster at hour 228 near 30N, 45W lol