ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
SunnyThoughts
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2263
Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2003 12:42 pm
Location: Pensacola, Florida

Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1241 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:32 pm

Ivanhater wrote:The spilt flow in the situation is so thin and close..any minor shift makes it go way right or way left....this case is one to be studied later on..literally which flow separated by a thin line does it go with? Just my opinion



Exactly Ivan, and we may not know if it takes the way right route, or the way left route, until it actually starts doing it. That is what makes it such a nail biter.



Not a forecast, stay tuned to NHC for official information.
0 likes   

User avatar
Rgv20
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2456
Age: 37
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 5:42 pm
Location: Edinburg/McAllen Tx

#1242 Postby Rgv20 » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:45 pm

0zUKMET in 72hrs has Joaquin close to Bermuda..

Image
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

windnrain
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 670
Joined: Wed Aug 10, 2005 1:19 pm
Location: Baton Rouge

#1243 Postby windnrain » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:48 pm

Image

CMC into NC area
0 likes   

stormlover2013
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2312
Joined: Thu Aug 22, 2013 12:06 pm
Location: Lumberton, Texas

Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1244 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:50 pm

Lol Cmc worse than nam
0 likes   

windnrain
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 670
Joined: Wed Aug 10, 2005 1:19 pm
Location: Baton Rouge

#1245 Postby windnrain » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:51 pm

Everything is bad but the Euro right?
0 likes   

SunnyThoughts
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2263
Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2003 12:42 pm
Location: Pensacola, Florida

#1246 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:55 pm

All these different models have their purpose. Some show the synoptic set up better than others..some are better at showing low level as opposed to upper level conditions etc. .There was a post last year I think, listing all the models, and what the NHC or forecasters used from each model. Wish I knew who posted it :(
0 likes   

Cdavis
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 15
Joined: Wed Sep 30, 2015 10:49 pm

Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1247 Postby Cdavis » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:55 pm

Let's be honest, although the Euro has been "most of the time" right in the short range models, let's thank God that the E US coast has not received a blow from a major storm this year. Otherwise there would have been very little time to be prepared. And I know, I know always be prepared.
Last edited by Cdavis on Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

#1248 Postby Alyono » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:56 pm

CMC continues to forecast landfall in NC
0 likes   

User avatar
AdamFirst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2487
Age: 34
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL

Re:

#1249 Postby AdamFirst » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:59 pm

windnrain wrote:Everything is bad but the Euro right?


All model data is worth looking at, even as just for a reference. The EURO is not the be-all, end-all model, as some people are erroneously stating in this thread.

The optimal track is the EURO solution, where it avoids the EC USA & Bermuda altogether. But to merely dismiss every model run because of the EURO is, frankly, stupid.
0 likes   
Dolphins Marlins Canes Golden Panthers HEAT
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022

User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 10851
Age: 37
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1250 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Oct 02, 2015 12:00 am

What a dynamic fluid situation...Just a few miles can get pulled west or east....wow
0 likes   
Michael

hohnywx
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 504
Age: 33
Joined: Sun Jul 19, 2009 8:34 pm
Location: Hastings-on-Hudson, NY

#1251 Postby hohnywx » Fri Oct 02, 2015 12:03 am

Just to recap every model came west so far except the UKMET.

Of course, the biggest test will be the Euro in an hour
0 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

#1252 Postby Alyono » Fri Oct 02, 2015 12:06 am

HWRF not believing MU, it is well east
0 likes   

User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 10851
Age: 37
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re:

#1253 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Oct 02, 2015 12:12 am

Alyono wrote:HWRF not believing MU, it is well east


This will be a big case study...it moves well south of models...now how far west does it get..with the dynamic situation..Every inch counts on the turn
0 likes   
Michael

WilmingtonSandbar
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 503
Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2010 12:11 pm
Location: Southport, NC

Re: Re:

#1254 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Fri Oct 02, 2015 12:22 am

Ivanhater wrote:
Alyono wrote:HWRF not believing MU, it is well east


This will be a big case study...it moves well south of models...now how far west does it get..with the dynamic situation..Every inch counts on the turn



Is 75W the magic number for models shifting back to a landfalling storm probability?
0 likes   
Diana X2 (look it up), Bertha, Fran, Bonnie, Floyd, Dennis, Charley, Ophelia, Ernesto, Irene, Matthew, And Florence

windnrain
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 670
Joined: Wed Aug 10, 2005 1:19 pm
Location: Baton Rouge

#1255 Postby windnrain » Fri Oct 02, 2015 12:25 am

Alright, models that have landfall or near landfall solutions:

GGEM
CMC
GFS
NAM
GFDL
GEPS
Last edited by windnrain on Fri Oct 02, 2015 12:30 am, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   

windnrain
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 670
Joined: Wed Aug 10, 2005 1:19 pm
Location: Baton Rouge

#1256 Postby windnrain » Fri Oct 02, 2015 12:25 am

Image
0 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

#1257 Postby Alyono » Fri Oct 02, 2015 12:29 am

GFDL with a big east shift
0 likes   

windnrain
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 670
Joined: Wed Aug 10, 2005 1:19 pm
Location: Baton Rouge

Re:

#1258 Postby windnrain » Fri Oct 02, 2015 12:31 am

Alyono wrote:GFDL with a big east shift


Seems like a consensus is forming around the GFS on a New England/NYC area hit.

Cant wait to see Euro.
0 likes   

windnrain
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 670
Joined: Wed Aug 10, 2005 1:19 pm
Location: Baton Rouge

#1259 Postby windnrain » Fri Oct 02, 2015 12:33 am

Anyone going to be able to post some Euro?
0 likes   

Cdavis
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 15
Joined: Wed Sep 30, 2015 10:49 pm

Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1260 Postby Cdavis » Fri Oct 02, 2015 12:33 am

Battle of the models. "Alyono" how the trough is....do you think this will be a substantial game changer in the projected path or no?
0 likes   


Return to “2015”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 9 guests