ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
TimeZone

Re: Re:

#1261 Postby TimeZone » Fri Oct 02, 2015 12:36 am

windnrain wrote:
Alyono wrote:GFDL with a big east shift


Seems like a consensus is forming around the GFS on a New England/NYC area hit.

Cant wait to see Euro.


No it's not. The consensus is clearly well offshore. It doesn't even look like a threat to Nova Scotia in Canada at this point to me.
0 likes   

windnrain
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 670
Joined: Wed Aug 10, 2005 1:19 pm
Location: Baton Rouge

Re: Re:

#1262 Postby windnrain » Fri Oct 02, 2015 12:43 am

TimeZone wrote:
windnrain wrote:
Alyono wrote:GFDL with a big east shift


Seems like a consensus is forming around the GFS on a New England/NYC area hit.

Cant wait to see Euro.


No it's not. The consensus is clearly well offshore. It doesn't even look like a threat to Nova Scotia in Canada at this point to me.


Of the major models, besides the euro and HWRF, most take it off the coast of Long Island and Boston. Some take it closer inland, some take it slightly out to sea.
0 likes   

windnrain
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 670
Joined: Wed Aug 10, 2005 1:19 pm
Location: Baton Rouge

#1263 Postby windnrain » Fri Oct 02, 2015 12:44 am

The GFS today was quite a shift west.
0 likes   

windnrain
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 670
Joined: Wed Aug 10, 2005 1:19 pm
Location: Baton Rouge

#1264 Postby windnrain » Fri Oct 02, 2015 12:50 am

Euro anyone?
0 likes   

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5686
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1265 Postby LarryWx » Fri Oct 02, 2015 12:56 am

0Z Euro hour 30 75 miles further north than 12Z Euro hour 42
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

windnrain
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 670
Joined: Wed Aug 10, 2005 1:19 pm
Location: Baton Rouge

#1266 Postby windnrain » Fri Oct 02, 2015 12:57 am

Keep the updates coming
0 likes   

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5686
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

#1267 Postby LarryWx » Fri Oct 02, 2015 1:01 am

0Z Euro hour 48, still north of 12Z Euro. 150 miles ESE of 12Z GFS. Likely headed ots but we'll see.

Edit: will be further west of Bermuda by good distance I think
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

windnrain
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 670
Joined: Wed Aug 10, 2005 1:19 pm
Location: Baton Rouge

#1268 Postby windnrain » Fri Oct 02, 2015 1:03 am

Larry - Interesting. Sounds like the euro has moved west compared to previous, still OTS but North of path means west of path unless it cuts east at a steeper rate than previous euro.
0 likes   

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5686
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

#1269 Postby LarryWx » Fri Oct 02, 2015 1:05 am

:uarrow: 0Z Euro clearly less OTS and a little faster than 12Z Euro
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

windnrain
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 670
Joined: Wed Aug 10, 2005 1:19 pm
Location: Baton Rouge

Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1270 Postby windnrain » Fri Oct 02, 2015 1:06 am

Keep me up to date, I really want to see where Euro takes it.

That it is shifting west is eyebrow raising with several models shifting west to landfall.
0 likes   

windnrain
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 670
Joined: Wed Aug 10, 2005 1:19 pm
Location: Baton Rouge

#1271 Postby windnrain » Fri Oct 02, 2015 1:07 am

I'm hearing through 72h, 75-100 miles west
0 likes   

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5686
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re:

#1272 Postby LarryWx » Fri Oct 02, 2015 1:08 am

windnrain wrote:I'm hearing through 72h, 75-100 miles west


That's about right and also little faster.

It is quiet in here.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

windnrain
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 670
Joined: Wed Aug 10, 2005 1:19 pm
Location: Baton Rouge

#1273 Postby windnrain » Fri Oct 02, 2015 1:09 am

Keep it up Larry, I want to hear the 90h
0 likes   

WilmingtonSandbar
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 503
Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2010 12:11 pm
Location: Southport, NC

Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1274 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Fri Oct 02, 2015 1:10 am

Is that the negatively titled cutoff low at the Ga/SC border at the 48 hour mark?
0 likes   
Diana X2 (look it up), Bertha, Fran, Bonnie, Floyd, Dennis, Charley, Ophelia, Ernesto, Irene, Matthew, And Florence

windnrain
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 670
Joined: Wed Aug 10, 2005 1:19 pm
Location: Baton Rouge

#1275 Postby windnrain » Fri Oct 02, 2015 1:11 am

150 miles west at 80 hours
0 likes   

User avatar
PTrackerLA
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5248
Age: 40
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
Location: Lafayette, LA

Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1276 Postby PTrackerLA » Fri Oct 02, 2015 1:12 am

I'm following on the hi-res weatherbell, there seems to be a lot more interaction with the cut-off low/trough over SC in this run. Much more intense precipitation bands connecting the two features and a bit closer. Interesting.
0 likes   

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5686
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

#1277 Postby LarryWx » Fri Oct 02, 2015 1:15 am

OTS at 96 but good bit closer.

Side note: huge rains still centered SC but not as devastating as 12Z Euro there from upper low.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

windnrain
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 670
Joined: Wed Aug 10, 2005 1:19 pm
Location: Baton Rouge

#1278 Postby windnrain » Fri Oct 02, 2015 1:15 am

So - Every model has shifted west.
0 likes   

User avatar
AdamFirst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2487
Age: 34
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL

#1279 Postby AdamFirst » Fri Oct 02, 2015 1:16 am

Interesting that between the 24 and 48 hour it seems to be a ENE motion and then it punts it to the NNE before Bermuda in the 72 hour frame. It really wants to get into that weakness ex-Ida wants to make.
0 likes   
Dolphins Marlins Canes Golden Panthers HEAT
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5686
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re:

#1280 Postby LarryWx » Fri Oct 02, 2015 1:17 am

windnrain wrote:So - Every model has shifted west.


No, I know that the 0Z CMC is a little further north hit on NC vs 12Z.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Return to “2015”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests