ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#21 Postby **drezee** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:39 pm

gatorcane wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:BS Flag being raised SKY HIGH for sure! Not buying this one bit!

The UKMET has a similar idea. The Euro is not alone on this one and it is within 5 days too.

Trademark: Son of Sandy...

TheStormExpert · #22 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:40 pm

gatorcane wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:BS Flag being raised SKY HIGH for sure! Not buying this one bit!

The UKMET has a similar idea. The Euro is not alone on this one and it is within 5 days too.

I know but this season has seen WAY too much shear all over the place for anything to get going past weak/moderate TS strength.

#23 Postby **drezee** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:41 pm

Have you looked at the 850 winds...major power outages from NC to WV...

#24 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:41 pm

It just takes a little window of opportunity for something to crank up even in a super El Nino year and this TD may just get one if the ECMWF and UKMET are correct. It's something a lot of us have been reiterating. There is no guarantee of being safe even during a super El Nino.

Unfortunately both models put the United States at risk at least at the moment (more so the ECMWF than the UKMET as it doesn't go out far enough to see what would happen, we can only extrapolate).

Nimbus · #25 Postby **Nimbus** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:44 pm

Forecast has this intensifying over the gulf stream.
We've seen what a negative tilt front does for northeasters so maybe ~980mb's isn't out of the ball park?

#26 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:45 pm

I think it is forced inland, yes, on that run. BUT...for a trough that far south at the end of September seems unlikely. Unless it tries to re-energize 99L? Maybe if 99L becomes a strong Kate and then gets trapped, it might force TD11/Joaquin west?

Weatherwatcher98 · #27 Postby **Weatherwatcher98** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:47 pm

Gfs showed that yesterday I believe.

#28 Postby **NDG** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:48 pm

I am taking the 12z Euro with a grain of salt, it has to become consistent first.

#29 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:50 pm

What does the ECMWF do to 99L in that run? Does it bomb it out into a strong Kate? Since a deep Kate with lower upper level heights is the only way I see that run happening...it would then be pinched between Kate and the northern ridge.

TheStormExpert · #30 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:52 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:What does the ECMWF do to 99L in that run? Does it bomb it out into a strong Kate?

Lol! Wouldn't surprise me if it did that next run. :lol:

#31 Postby **Alyono** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:53 pm

GFDL and HWRF are showing something FAR more intense than the ECMWF

#32 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:54 pm

Here is the 120MB 500MB pattern showing height anomalies. Look at the blocking high over SE Canada.

Is the ECMWF showing a baroclinically-enhanced system into the East Coast of the U.S. possibly phasing with the low pressure area over the SE United States?

LarryWx · #33 Postby **LarryWx** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:55 pm

Even though it is an awful model when it is on its own in most cases, don't forget that the 12Z CMC does have a 984 mb hit on E MA and 987 mb hit on E ME on 10/4.

#34 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 1:59 pm

Alyono wrote:GFDL and HWRF are showing something FAR more intense than the ECMWF

The 12Z HWRF: :eek:

#35 Postby **xironman** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 2:06 pm

It seems a bit early in the year for this kind of setup, November I would believe it. But the 500mb depiction does say NC hit. And at hour 120...

#36 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 2:22 pm

Do the ECMWF ensembles show anything like the operational? That could give us a clue if the ECMWF is out to lunch again.

LarryWx · #37 Postby **LarryWx** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 2:30 pm

The 12Z JMA combines what is now TD 11 and the remnants of Ida and gets a storm down to 986 mb just off of ME at hour 168 similarly to what the 12Z CMC does with Ida's remnants/TD 11:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _atl_8.png

#38 Postby **xironman** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 2:30 pm

The ensembles are not nearly as strong with the trough as the op. Of course a more detailed depiction where the 500mb vorts are would help to see if the Nino is amping the pattern, but I just have the free stuff.

#39 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 2:31 pm

That's the 0Z, we have to wait for the 12Z.

#40 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 28, 2015 2:39 pm

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