WPAC: KOPPU - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

91W INVEST 151010 1800 11.5N 161.7E WPAC 15 1005

[euro6208]

Seems to be the remnants of 08C.

[gigabite]

The initiation time for 91 W Invest GEO 1KW is 10-10-15 11:14 UTC. This image is 20:32 UTC. It is in my watch bracket, but just for a few more hours. The Moon will be below what I believe is the limit of apparent influence by the next pass. 21:01 utc was the moon pass, with no visible cloud deformation.

[euro6208]

Given LOW

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST AREA 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.9N 157.6E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM NORTH OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF MONSOON
TROUGHING WITH EMBEDDED LOOSELY ORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION. A
102328Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITHIN THE TROUGHING, AND MODELS ARE INDICATING A GRADUAL
CONSOLIDATION OF THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO DAYS. UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MARGINAL WITH MOSTLY STRAIGHT LINE
FLOW OVERHEAD AND A SHARP GRADIENT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASING
TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

000
WWMY80 PGUM 110640
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
440 PM CHST SUN OCT 11 2015

GUZ001>004-120000-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
440 PM CHST SUN OCT 11 2015

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED 11N158E OR ABOUT 900 MILES EAST
OF GUAM. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE
MARIANAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
MARIANAS...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE PASSAGE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF FOUR INCHES OR MORE ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WHICH CAN CAUSE FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING
AREAS. ROUGH SEAS AND LOW VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED DURING THE
PASSAGE OF THIS DISTURBANCE. HIGHER WINDS AND RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE
IF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS FASTER THAN FORECAST.

STAY INFORMED TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE ARE POSTED ON THE WFO GUAM WEB PAGE AT
http://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/ (ALL LOWER CASE).

$$

ZIOBRO/WILLIAMS

[euro6208]

EURO has a possible TS for the CNMI, passes it north of Saipan with steady strengthening as it traverses the Philippine Sea. Bottoms it at 958 mb as it starts to head northeast away from the Philippines.

[euro6208]

Big system.

We welcome the rain.

[euro6208]

A very active and complex monsoon weather pattern exists across a large portion of the equatorial western Pacific. Unsettled weather continues for Chuuk, Pohnpei and Kosrae states as well as the Marshall Islands. Weather will improve Monday for these locations as the the monsoon trough moves slightly northward. For the Marianas, expect deteriorating weather Monday and Tuesday as tropical disturbance 91W nears the area. There is a potential for flooding rainfall and gusty winds to accompany 91W, especially on Tuesday for the Marianas. Stay informed with the latest forecasts and advisories issued by the National Weather Service as the situation can change rapidly.

A combination of long period north swell left over from tropical storm Choi-Wan and monsoon generated swell and waves are bringing hazardous surf to most of Micronesia including the Marianas, Chuuk, Pohnpei, Kosrae and Majuro. Check our website for specific information on affected locations including affected shores, surf heights and when surf is expected to fall below advisory levels.

For the latest forecasts and advisories please visit our website at:
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

[euro6208]

18Z GFS has Koppu near typhoon as it passes over Saipan. Bottoms it at 898 mb as it recurves east of the Ryukyu Islands.

00Z is slightly weaker and little bit north of Saipan, 992 mb and weaker peak at 900 mb.

06Z shifted more to the south passing between Rota and Saipan, more closer to Guam as a strengthening typhoon. Peaks it at 897 mb.

06Z

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.9N
157.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 153.5E, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM EAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD, DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 111458Z NPP IMAGE SHOWS CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF AN EXPOSED LLCC. A 111129Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT CORE WINDS AND 20 TO 25 KNOT PERIPHERAL FLOW. A 111452Z RSCAT IMAGE SUGGESTS THE CIRCULATION IS STRENGTHENING AND BECOMING MORE SYMMETRIC. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (15 TO 30 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 165E. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL CONSOLIDATE QUICKLY WHILE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOWER VWS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

TXPQ26 KNES 111507
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91W)

B. 11/1432Z

C. 13.0N

D. 152.3E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DT=1.0 BASED ON .2+ BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=1.0. MET=1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ

[euro6208]

This would qualify as a TS right now if VMAX is to believed.

[euro6208]

Quite a contrast.

EURO has only a strong disturbance passing over the Northern Marianas while GFS brings a typhoon south of Saipan.

NAVGEM agrees with EURO as they both factor in the shear while GFS doesn't.

[gigabite]

this is an animated gif with a 2 second delay.

91W invest has gotten better organized over the last 24 hours, the wind speed is up to 20kts, moving WNW at 20 miles an hour(32 KPH), pressure holding at 1005mb, with the tallest clouds about 450 miles east of Guam.

[1900hurricane]

The lead disturbance (I'd have to go back and check, but I think might actually be most of what remains of 08C) seems to be doing a decent job of combating the subsidence and resulting dry air in the western portion of the basin. This could set up some favorable conditions over the Philippine Sea.

[1900hurricane]

JMA now has a TD, but not expecting to name it within 24 hours.

http://www.jma.go.jp/jp/g3/images/asia/pdf/asas.pdf

[euro6208]

WTPN21 PGTW 120800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.4N 150.2E TO 15.2N 143.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 120640Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.4N 149.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST AREA 91W) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 149.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 149.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 260 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
SHEARED TO THE WEST OF A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 120004Z BYU HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS THE
ELONGATED NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT CORE WINDS
AND 20 TO 25 KNOT PERIPHERAL FLOW PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND WEST
UNDERNEATH THE DEEP CONVECTION. A REVIEW OF RECENT SCATTEROMETRY
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CIRCULATION IS GENERALLY STRENGTHENING AND
BECOMING MORE SYMMETRIC. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE ALSO IMPROVING,
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW
THAT IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 165E. DYNAMIC
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONSOLIDATE QUICKLY WHILE
TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOWER VWS. DUE TO CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION AND IMPROVING
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
130800Z.
//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WGMY60 PGUM 120617
FFAMY

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
417 PM CHST MON OCT 12 2015

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO BRING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO THE
MARIANAS...

.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NORTH OF CHUUK COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE MARIANAS THROUGH TUESDAY LEADING TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

GUZ001>004-122100-
/O.NEW.PGUM.FF.A.0004.151012T0617Z-151013T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
417 PM CHST MON OCT 12 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TIYAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

* THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON

* A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN TO THE
MARIANAS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE MARIANAS TUESDAY.

* ROADS IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS COULD BECOME TEMPORARILY FLOODED.
LOCATIONS IN LOW-LYING AREAS AND CLOSE TO STREAMS WILL BE AT RISK
OF FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. IF ANY STORM DRAINS NEAR
YOU ARE CLOGGED WITH DEBRIS...CLEAN THEM OUT TO MINIMIZE THE
IMPACTS OF ANY FLOODING. IF YOU LIVE NEAR STREAMS AND RIVERS...
PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE WATER LEVELS.

&&

$$

WILLIAMS

000
FZMY70 PGUM 120702
MWSMY

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
502 PM CHST MON OCT 12 2015

PMZ151>154-122100-
GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-
SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
502 PM CHST MON OCT 12 2015

...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING TOWARDS THE MARIANAS...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED ABOUT 280 MILES EAST OF GUAM
NEAR 13N150E. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWEST
TOWARD THE MARIANAS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE MARIANA ISLANDS LATE TUESDAY
MORNING OR EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT FOR SAIPAN AND
TINIAN WATERS WHILE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP FOR ROTA AND
GUAM WATERS. WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS IN THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE PASSAGE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE TUESDAY.

SEAS WILL BUILD INTO A RANGE OF 10 TO 15 FEET AND BE HAZARDOUS
FOR THE OPERATION OF SMALL CRAFT BEGINNING THIS EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN SAIPAN WATERS...AND BY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS GUAM WATERS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MARINERS SHOULD AVOID
BOATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

[euro6208]

000
WWMY80 PGUM 120822
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
630 PM CHST MON OCT 12 2015

GUZ001>004-130000-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
630 PM CHST MON OCT 12 2015

...DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TCFA...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED ABOUT 340 MILES EAST OF GUAM NEAR
13N150E. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE
MARIANAS AND IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE MARIANAS TUESDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE MARIANAS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS THE SUBJECT OF A
TCFA ISSUED BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT... TCFA...MEANS THAT THE DISTURBANCE MAY BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND WINDS OF 25
TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE PASSAGE OF
THIS DISTURBANCE. RAINFALL OF FOUR INCHES OR MORE IS ALSO POSSIBLE
WHICH MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING DURING THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. HIGHER
WINDS AND RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE IF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS
FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED.

SEAS WILL INCREASE TO LEVELS THAT ARE HAZARDOUS FOR OPERATORS
OF SMALL CRAFT BY MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE MARIANAS COASTAL WATERS.

RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANAS SHOULD STAY INFORMED WITH THE LATEST
STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
...ESPECIALLY IF THE DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS FASTER THAN EXPECTED.
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE POSTED ON THE
WFO GUAM WEB PAGE AT http://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/ (ALL LOWER CASE).

$$

ZIOBRO

[euro6208]

HWRF operational goes ballistic.

Something to watch. It was the best model that forecasted the rapid intensification of Mujigae.