ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

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LarryWx
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Re:

#121 Postby LarryWx » Mon Oct 19, 2015 5:44 pm

gatorcane wrote:there definitely seems to be some kind of spin starting east of Northern Belize and it is stationary still. Latest SAT imagery even shows a high tower developing well out over water. Steering higher up in the atmosphere is not the same as the low-level steering. Should it decided to really deepen overnight, not sure it would just move inland into the Yucatan. All of the models do agree on it getting steered by low-level steering and are showing it inland by tomorrow. Given this good consensus, that is the most likely outcome.


1) Gator, excellent post. I agree about the changed steering if it were to deepen more than expected. Actually, I also made this point a few days ago when convection and a weak low were first showing up in the WC. Something to be wary of for sure.

2) Gator, I see it (white color on the colored IR). It even looks like it may have drifted ever so slightly eastward during the last 2 hours.

3) I obviously still don't agree with the NHC's near 0% 48 hour formation chance. It is clearly not near 0% imo even inside of 24 hours!

4) There have been a pretty good number of geneses this close or even closer to Belize/Yucatan.

5) I still wonder if the X factor is competition for energy from the EPAC blob. I'll be watching the satellite loops tonight more closely than the models.
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Re: Re:

#122 Postby Hammy » Mon Oct 19, 2015 5:50 pm

LarryWx wrote: 3) I obviously still don't agree with the NHC's near 0% 48 hour formation chance. It is clearly not near 0% imo even inside of 24 hours!


Is the 0/10% still 92L? Because this is well east of where the last X for that was at. And I disagree with NHC's 10% because there is no longer any valid model support for development and don't see the point of having it in the TWO unless they are using it to test the models. The low center is over Guatemala, all high cloud motion is out of the west, and the winds near the convection are all briskly out of the south.

The low I see the models showing seems now to originate from a frontal low that exits Texas in about six days.
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Re: Re:

#123 Postby LarryWx » Mon Oct 19, 2015 5:54 pm

Hammy wrote:
LarryWx wrote: 3) I obviously still don't agree with the NHC's near 0% 48 hour formation chance. It is clearly not near 0% imo even inside of 24 hours!


Is the 0/10% still 92L? Because this is well east of where the last X for that was at. And I disagree with NHC's 10% because there is no longer any valid model support for development and don't see the point of having it in the TWO unless they are using it to test the models. The low center is over Guatemala, all high cloud motion is out of the west, and the winds near the convection are all briskly out of the south.

The low I see the models showing seems now to originate from a frontal low that exits Texas in about six days.


Hammy, I don't think 92L exists anymore technically. However, this is imo as good a place to discuss the WC blob as any for continuity reasons if nothing else.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#124 Postby NDG » Mon Oct 19, 2015 6:06 pm

92L does not exists any more, which its old surface low & vorticity is still inland, perhaps a new thread for the NW Caribbean "blob" needs to be started in Talking Tropics, which still has no model support for development.

NORTH ATLANTIC

No current storms
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#125 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 19, 2015 6:42 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A weak area of low pressure located in the Gulf of Honduras is
producing shower and thunderstorm activity across portions of the
northwestern Caribbean sea, the Yucatan Peninsula, and Belize.
Although upper-level winds are marginally conducive for tropical
cyclone formation, land interaction is expected to preclude
significant development while the disturbance moves slowly westward
to west-northwestward across the southern Yucatan Peninsula and into
the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this system will likely
produce heavy rainfall across portions of Belize, northern
Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Forecaster Roberts
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#126 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 19, 2015 7:33 pm

92L is up again.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &TYPE=ssmi

Code: Select all

Atlantic



green ball icon92L.INVEST kml icon

East Pacific



green ball icon97E.INVEST kml icon
green ball icon19E.OLAF kml icon

Central Pacific



West Pacific



green ball icon94W.INVEST kml icon
green ball icon93W.INVEST kml icon
green ball icon25W.CHAMPI kml icon
green ball icon24W.KOPPU kml icon

Indian Ocean



Southern Hem.
Season:  16



green ball icon92S.INVEST
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#127 Postby LarryWx » Mon Oct 19, 2015 10:26 pm

The reborn 92L is certainly not looking bad right now. Not only that but look where she appears to be now....some 150 miles E of N Belize...i.e., about 50 miles E of earlier today. Looking forward to next ASCAT. Ascending missed dog gone it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#128 Postby Sanibel » Mon Oct 19, 2015 11:47 pm

The potential of the current behavior is scary.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#129 Postby Hammy » Mon Oct 19, 2015 11:54 pm

LarryWx wrote:The reborn 92L is certainly not looking bad right now. Not only that but look where she appears to be now....some 150 miles E of N Belize...i.e., about 50 miles E of earlier today. Looking forward to next ASCAT. Ascending missed dog gone it.


Next pass will likely miss slightly to the east, but the earlier pass clipped the offshore waters and showed nothing but southerly winds indicating that there was nothing at the surface at the time.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#130 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Oct 20, 2015 12:16 am

Isn't a trough suppose to swoop this up sometime this week?
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

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#131 Postby supercane » Tue Oct 20, 2015 12:22 am

:uarrow: ASCAT did indeed miss the cloudburst the east. The absence of southwest or southerly winds on the fringe of the swath would mean any low would have to be very small.
Image
Swath of latest WindSat did go over area and did not show a clear center.
Image
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#132 Postby supercane » Tue Oct 20, 2015 12:27 am

ABNT20 KNHC 200516
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak area of low pressure located near the Gulf of Honduras is
producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity across
portions of the northwestern Caribbean Sea, the Yucatan Peninsula,
and Belize. Although upper-level winds are marginally conducive for
tropical cyclone formation, land interaction is expected to inhibit
significant development while the disturbance moves slowly westward
to west-northwestward across the southern Yucatan Peninsula and into
the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this system will likely
produce heavy rainfall across portions of Belize, northern
Guatemala, Honduras, and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent


$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#133 Postby LarryWx » Tue Oct 20, 2015 10:36 am

For the first time in a good while, this morning it no longer looks to me like it has any chance to ever amount to anything tropically in the W Caribbean. It looks way different from how it looked yesterday and even early last night, when it had a round ball of very persistent convection. This is consistent with the model consensus finally no longer having a weak NW Caribbean low starting this morning. It has shown a persistent weak low there during much of the last five days but with no tropical development. In retrospect, it was right.
This 2nd life of 92L is looking to be over very shortly, if not already.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#134 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 20, 2015 12:34 pm

Now is gone for good.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The area of low pressure previously near the coast of Belize has
moved inland over the Yucatan Peninsula and weakened to a trough.
Development of this system now appears unlikely as it moves
westward to west-northwestward across the Bay of Campeche during
the next couple of days. This system could produce locally heavy
rain across portions of Belize, northern Guatemala, Honduras, and
the Yucatan Peninsula during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#135 Postby Sanibel » Tue Oct 20, 2015 1:07 pm

Toast. Nothing at the surface I guess.


EPAC grabbed the axis center.
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