gatorcane wrote:there definitely seems to be some kind of spin starting east of Northern Belize and it is stationary still. Latest SAT imagery even shows a high tower developing well out over water. Steering higher up in the atmosphere is not the same as the low-level steering. Should it decided to really deepen overnight, not sure it would just move inland into the Yucatan. All of the models do agree on it getting steered by low-level steering and are showing it inland by tomorrow. Given this good consensus, that is the most likely outcome.
1) Gator, excellent post. I agree about the changed steering if it were to deepen more than expected. Actually, I also made this point a few days ago when convection and a weak low were first showing up in the WC. Something to be wary of for sure.
2) Gator, I see it (white color on the colored IR). It even looks like it may have drifted ever so slightly eastward during the last 2 hours.
3) I obviously still don't agree with the NHC's near 0% 48 hour formation chance. It is clearly not near 0% imo even inside of 24 hours!
4) There have been a pretty good number of geneses this close or even closer to Belize/Yucatan.
5) I still wonder if the X factor is competition for energy from the EPAC blob. I'll be watching the satellite loops tonight more closely than the models.