ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#61 Postby NDG » Sat Oct 17, 2015 2:47 pm

EPAC system if it develops it will be game over for 92L.
What the GFS and Euro been showing is that the energy from the possible EPAC system after it gets pulled northward by the ULL may cause development of a frontal type low pressure area near the TX coast, inland or just offshore.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#62 Postby LarryWx » Sat Oct 17, 2015 3:18 pm

Weatherwatcher98 wrote:
floridasun78 wrote:look more storm forming east of Yucatan over nw Caribbean by caymen islands ( was their poster from cayman island on here for few years?)Image other thing look new spin maybe starting east of belize
I see a spin 17-86. Not sure if it's upper level.


Although it may not ever amount to much, I wonder if there is a second, perhaps tighter vortex near 17.5N, 85.5W. Anyone see anything there on the vis?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#63 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Sat Oct 17, 2015 3:24 pm

Read my post I said 86-17 :wink:
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#64 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 17, 2015 3:31 pm

the low level structure is far too well defined to allow for a reformation in the Caribbean
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#65 Postby NDG » Sat Oct 17, 2015 3:31 pm

LarryWx wrote:
Weatherwatcher98 wrote:
floridasun78 wrote:look more storm forming east of Yucatan over nw Caribbean by caymen islands ( was their poster from cayman island on here for few years?)Image other thing look new spin maybe starting east of belize
I see a spin 17-86. Not sure if it's upper level.


Although it may not ever amount to much, I wonder if there is a second, perhaps tighter vortex near 17.5N, 85.5W. Anyone see anything there on the vis?


There's nothing there, nothing but southerly winds, at least above the surface.
Surface trough and h85 vorticity is well inland over the southern Yucatan P.
Vorticity near Belize is in the mid levels.
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#66 Postby NDG » Sat Oct 17, 2015 3:33 pm

According to this 92L's vorticity has become elongated E to W while 97E's vorticity is becoming stronger but elongated also.

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Re:

#67 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Sat Oct 17, 2015 3:36 pm

Like I said beginning to doubt anything will form or crossover.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#68 Postby Nimbus » Sat Oct 17, 2015 3:49 pm

Upper level swirl near 18.2 89.3 but low level clouds and inflow probably have a center further SW just north of the Guatemala border. should be emerging in the BOC tomorrow maybe near Champoton.

Climo probably does favor a Texas savior trough scenario, hopefully with lots of shear so the only threat to the rest of the gulf coast is flood, like Sunny said.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#69 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Sat Oct 17, 2015 4:11 pm

Nimbus wrote:Upper level swirl near 18.2 89.3 but low level clouds and inflow probably have a center further SW just north of the Guatemala border. should be emerging in the BOC tomorrow maybe near Champoton.

Climo probably does favor a Texas savior trough scenario, hopefully with lots of shear so the only threat to the rest of the gulf coast is flood, like Sunny said.
Needed rain. Won't be a Flood. :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#70 Postby stormlover2013 » Sat Oct 17, 2015 4:18 pm

U don't know if it will be a flood are not lol
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#71 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Oct 17, 2015 5:24 pm

NDG wrote:EPAC system if it develops it will be game over for 92L.
What the GFS and Euro been showing is that the energy from the possible EPAC system after it gets pulled northward by the ULL may cause development of a frontal type low pressure area near the TX coast, inland or just offshore.


Agree! The energy from 92L will be transfered to 97E in the EPAC. The EPAC system will be the dominant system.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#72 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 17, 2015 6:40 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure located inland near Guatemala's northern
border with Mexico is producing widespread cloudiness, showers, and
a few thunderstorms across portions of the northwestern Caribbean
Sea and the Yucatan Peninsula. Significant development is not
expected through tonight while the low moves slowly west-
northwestward across the southern Yucatan Peninsula. However, some
development is possible on Sunday or Monday if the low emerges into
the southern Bay of Campeche. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system Sunday afternoon,
if necessary. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this system
will likely produce heavy rainfall across portions of Belize,
northern Guatemala, the Yucatan Peninsula, and southeastern Mexico
through Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#73 Postby LarryWx » Sun Oct 18, 2015 12:58 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure located inland over southeastern Mexico
about 70 miles southeast of Ciudad del Carmen is producing
disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms across portions of the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan Peninsula. This system
is moving slowly to the west-northwest, and some development is
possible later today or on Monday if the low emerges into the
southern Bay of Campeche. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if
necessary. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this system
will likely produce heavy rainfall across portions of Belize,
northern Guatemala, the Yucatan Peninsula, and southeastern Mexico
through Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Blake
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#74 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 18, 2015 6:34 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure located inland over southeastern Mexico
between Villahermosa and Ciudad del Carmen is producing disorganized
showers and a few thunderstorms, primarily across portions of the
Bay of Campeche. This system is moving slowly west-northwestward,
and some development is possible later today or on Monday after the
low emerges into the southern Bay of Campeche. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system
this afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, this system could produce heavy rainfall across portions
of southeastern Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day
or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#75 Postby wxman57 » Sun Oct 18, 2015 7:33 am

Development in the Gulf looks unlikely, but it's looking like some heavy rain for east Texas next weekend.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#76 Postby NDG » Sun Oct 18, 2015 9:02 am

I am sure they will cancel the recon scheduled for this afternoon, if they have not done so already. Low pressure center is still inland.
Combination of this low pressure and strong high pressure over the US means lots of convergence over coastal southern MX near the BOC, there's going to be some very heavy rains over this part MX over the next couple of days.
BTW, shear is still analyzed in 30-50 knot range over the BOC, way too strong for much development if any if the low pressure ends up over the BOC.
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#77 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Oct 18, 2015 9:14 am

Development chances for 92L for.me is virtually not greater than 10% at this juncture. Time is rapidly approaching to closing the book on the 2015 North Atlantic Hurricane season!!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#78 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 18, 2015 9:48 am

No go.

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARK: TASKING REQUIREMENT FOR 18/1900Z CANCELED BY
NHC AT 18/1240Z.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#79 Postby wkwally » Sun Oct 18, 2015 10:32 am

IMO I just do not even see much rain moving up into Texas with this
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#80 Postby srainhoutx » Sun Oct 18, 2015 10:49 am

wkwally wrote:IMO I just do not even see much rain moving up into Texas with this


A combination of at least three features suggest otherwise. We have a rather deep longwave trough across the West with a closed 500mb upper low expected to develop at the base of the trough over Northern Mexico/Southern Arizona. Next is the monsoonal gyre in the Eastern Pacific (Gulf of Tehuantepec) extending East into the NW Caribbean Sea with very rich/deep tropical moisture pooling in the Bay of Campeche/Gulf of Tehuantepec in excess of 2.5 inches that the upper trough to the West will pull North during the week. Add to the mix a stalled boundary across Central Texas along with embedded disturbances rotating beneath the Western trough and you have a recipe for a heavy rainfall event across portions of Mexico, New Mexico, Texas and portions of the Southern Plains. A Coastal trough/low will likely develop around Wednesday evening into Thursday further increasing the heavy rainfall threat as all the tropical moisture is pulled N across the Western/NW Gulf of Mexico.

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