ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5686
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#61 Postby LarryWx » Sun Oct 18, 2015 10:36 am

jlauderdal wrote:whatever happened with the gfs to south florida solution... :roll:


As 57 implied, it wasn't as far fetched as you may think in retrospect. Also, it wasn't just the GFS as two Euro runs threatened S FL (see below) in addition to several CMC runs and many NAVGEM runs. In retrospect it does look like the GFS didn't do well in the WC for the 2nd Oct. in a row. Currently, there is what appears to be some sort of very weak vortex near or just E/NE of far NE Belize. The major model runs that threatened S FL, including the two Euro of 8-8.5 days ago and NAVGEM runs for several days later, had a vortex just east of the aforementioned suspected very weak vortex (a little out into the Gulf of Honduras) and really nothing in the Bay of Capeche to compete with it in those runs. Then they took it N and then NE near or just south of far S FL below the SE US high. Here are days 8 and 10 of the 0Z Euro run from 10/10, showing the NW Carib low strengthen to a 999 TS moving NE to far W Cuba:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... watl_9.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_11.png

Here is day 10 from the 12Z Euro of 10/9, with a threatening 1004 TS at the NE tip of the Yucatan that was then moving northward and likely IMO about to turn NE toward below that SE high:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=692
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5594
Age: 40
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

#62 Postby Hammy » Sun Oct 18, 2015 3:26 pm

Euro showing nothing at all now. After yet another model storm failed to materialize can we finally agree that the model's accuracy has gone down the toilet? :roll:
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Weatherwatcher98
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 346
Joined: Sat Sep 12, 2015 10:53 am

Re:

#63 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Sun Oct 18, 2015 3:35 pm

Hammy wrote:Euro showing nothing at all now. After yet another model storm failed to materialize can we finally agree that the model's accuracy has gone down the toilet? :roll:
They have their ups and downs, especially in an El Nino. They are only Human, like their creators. :idea:
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3755
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#64 Postby floridasun78 » Sun Oct 18, 2015 3:37 pm

did Models chance from sat run to ne more?
0 likes   

Weatherwatcher98
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 346
Joined: Sat Sep 12, 2015 10:53 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#65 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Sun Oct 18, 2015 3:39 pm

floridasun78 wrote:did Models chance from sat run to ne more?
No
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Weatherwatcher98
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 346
Joined: Sat Sep 12, 2015 10:53 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#66 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Sun Oct 18, 2015 3:39 pm

floridasun78 wrote:did Models chance from sat run to ne more?
This will be NO threat to Florida.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3755
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

#67 Postby floridasun78 » Sun Oct 18, 2015 3:43 pm

i be suppise if go texas too more into Mexico
0 likes   

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3755
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

#68 Postby floridasun78 » Sun Oct 18, 2015 3:44 pm

This will be NO threat to texas.
0 likes   

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3755
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

#69 Postby floridasun78 » Sun Oct 18, 2015 3:48 pm

if larry if you here why have gfs chance were if it form will be ne of Yucatan????
0 likes   

Weatherwatcher98
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 346
Joined: Sat Sep 12, 2015 10:53 am

Re:

#70 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Sun Oct 18, 2015 3:50 pm

floridasun78 wrote:This will be NO threat to texas.
I live in Florida and this will probably be only rain for Texas. Too much shear. NO threat to Florida.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

fendie
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 136
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2012 10:33 am
Location: Austin, TX

Re:

#71 Postby fendie » Sun Oct 18, 2015 3:52 pm

floridasun78 wrote:This will be NO threat to texas.


A frontal low or coastal trough would enhance the moisture and rainfall totals for someone along the TX coast posing a potential threat to life and property.
0 likes   

Weatherwatcher98
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 346
Joined: Sat Sep 12, 2015 10:53 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#72 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Sun Oct 18, 2015 3:52 pm

Invest 92L is pretty much Toast.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Weatherwatcher98
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 346
Joined: Sat Sep 12, 2015 10:53 am

Re: Re:

#73 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Sun Oct 18, 2015 3:54 pm

fendie wrote:
floridasun78 wrote:This will be NO threat to texas.


A frontal low or coastal trough would enhance the moisture and rainfall totals for someone along the TX coast posing a potential threat to life and property.
I agree
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Weatherwatcher98
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 346
Joined: Sat Sep 12, 2015 10:53 am

Re: Re:

#74 Postby Weatherwatcher98 » Sun Oct 18, 2015 3:57 pm

Weatherwatcher98 wrote:
fendie wrote:
floridasun78 wrote:This will be NO threat to texas.


A frontal low or coastal trough would enhance the moisture and rainfall totals for someone along the TX coast posing a potential threat to life and property.
I agree
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
326 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS HAS MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON
WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH INLAND AND 10 TO 15
MPH CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM WERE IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL EDGE EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO COME AROUND
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE LEVELS TO INCREASE
WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES COMING BACK INTO OUR FORECAST STARTING ON TUESDAY.
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING TO OUR EAST AND A LOW TO OUR WEST
WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
MEXICO AND TEXAS GULF COASTS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND
ON INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AREA IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWARD AROUND MIDWEEK
AND POSSIBLY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL (THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER`S 1 PM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NOW HAS A NEAR ZERO
PERCENT FORMATION CHANCE ON THIS SYSTEM FOR BOTH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS). THE STRENGTH/LOCATION/MOVEMENT OF THE LOW WILL
HELP TO DETERMINE WHERE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR. WITH
MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL NOT SHOWING A WHOLE LOT OF CONSISTENCY...CONFIDENCE
LEVELS REMAIN LOW. 42]
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5686
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re:

#75 Postby LarryWx » Sun Oct 18, 2015 4:42 pm

floridasun78 wrote:if larry if you here why have gfs chance were if it form will be ne of Yucatan????


Florida,
The triple blob has been well predicted by the GFS for a number of days. The Yucatan blob is near what was developing about now on all major models 8.5-9 days ago in the Gulf of Honduras. However, then there was no other nearby blob to
compete and it also was out in open water to the east of where the Yucatan blob is now, thus allowing the modeled Gulf of Honduras to develop and become a TC. No model develops the Yucatan blob as a separate entity, which means S FL is expected to be safe. So, although it may look scary, I think you can rest easy.

Edit: The blob near or just offshore the Yucatan is progged to hang around through at least Tue night per the latest GFS. If this happens, don't panic. Assuming the models are not totally out to lunch, you won't need to worry about it developing.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4928
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#76 Postby Nimbus » Mon Oct 19, 2015 5:03 pm

If there is a center over water till Tuesday night there might be enough of a circulation that it would survive the transit across the Yucatan. All the previous blobs developed some vorticity, moved west over land dried out and got sheared apart.

This blob is a little further north than the first, is the shear forecast favorable for development in the BOC Thursday?
0 likes   


Return to “2015”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 12 guests