Arabian Sea: CHAPALA - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Seems to rapidly be clearing out an eye. I'd estimate that this is at least 100 knots now, and depending on if the small eye is a legit pinhole, this will be a Cat 5 in a short order.

[1900hurricane]

JTWC broke constraints and went with a DT of 5.5.

[Yellow Evan]

JTWC broke constraints and went with a DT of 5.5.

...and still screwed up. Eye isn't B, it's LG.

TPIO11 PGTW 300024

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (CHAPALA)

B. 29/2330Z

C. 14.22N

D. 61.78E

E. THREE/MET7

F. T5.5/5.5/D3.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. BLK EYE SURR W (-0.5 ADJ
FOR CMG) YIELDS A DT OF 5.5. PT YIELDS A 5.0 WHILE MET YIELDS A
4.0. DBO DT. BROKE CONSTRAINTS (CHANGE OF 2.5 OVR 24HRS).

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


MARTINEZ

[1900hurricane]

JTWC broke constraints and went with a DT of 5.5.

...and still screwed up. Eye isn't B, it's LG.

TPIO11 PGTW 300024

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (CHAPALA)

B. 29/2330Z

C. 14.22N

D. 61.78E

E. THREE/MET7

F. T5.5/5.5/D3.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. BLK EYE SURR W (-0.5 ADJ
FOR CMG) YIELDS A DT OF 5.5. PT YIELDS A 5.0 WHILE MET YIELDS A
4.0. DBO DT. BROKE CONSTRAINTS (CHANGE OF 2.5 OVR 24HRS).

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


MARTINEZ

Good catch, definitely a pixel of light grey at 2330Z (and even more at 0000Z).

[mrbagyo]

Seems like Euro won again - the track, strength, size.
I wonder if Chappala could go deeper than Gonu.

[Alyono]

I could see this reaching 160 kts to be honest

[mrbagyo]

Chapala has benefited greatly from that strong Upper Level Low positioned at the Northern portion of subcontinental India, providing it with that excellent poleward outflow.

[Darvince]

I haven't watched an NIO storm live before, and oh my god I never knew just how terrible an RSMC could be. I often joked that the IMD had a maximum of 100kt for systems, but I never thought that they were actually that bad at it.

[Alyono]

good grief, the 100kts I went with looks to be severely on the low side...

[Yellow Evan]

Seems to be clearing out an eye rapidly. CDO warmer earlier but is re-cooling (remarkable given time of day, pretty sure it's morning there). I'd estimate that this is around 120 knots, and this is well on it's way to Category 5 status.

[1900hurricane]

Off-white eye sighting.

[supercane]

Copying the old 21Z advisories to compare to the upcoming 03Z advisories:
IMD (lines grouped for readability)
FKIN20 VIDP 292019
TC ADVISORY

DTG: 20151029/1800Z
TCAC: NEW DELHI
TC: CHAPALA
NR: 06

PSN: N1418 E06230
MOV: WNW07KT
C: 0988HPA
MAX WIND: 65KT

FCST PSN+06HR: 30/0000Z N1424 E06206
FCST MAX WIND +6HRS:70 KT
FCST PSN+12HR: 30/0600Z N1430 E06136
FCST MAX WIND+12HR: 75KT
FCST PSN+18HR: 30/1200Z N1430 E06106
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 75KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 30/1800Z N1424 E06036
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 80KT

RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20151030/0300Z
TOO: 300200 HRS IST

JTWC:
WTIO51 PGTW 292100
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 151029190013
2015102918 04A CHAPALA 005 01 275 08 SATL 060
T000 143N 0623E 075 R064 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 145N 0609E 085 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 075 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 145N 0598E 095 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 085 SE QD 090 SW QD 095 NW QD
T036 145N 0584E 105 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 105 NW QD
T048 147N 0569E 110 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 105 SE QD 110 SW QD 115 NW QD
T072 152N 0541E 115 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 115 SE QD 115 SW QD 125 NW QD
T096 160N 0511E 075 R034 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD
T120 175N 0493E 035
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (CHAPALA) WARNING NR 005
<rest omitted>

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Chapala's satellite presentation suggests T7.0/140kt, but there's likely a lag in intensity given how quickly the cyclone has intensified. I'd go 120-125kt.

[supercane]

Only the Atlantic storms have had separate advisory threads; for the rest of the basins, traditionally there has only been one thread for everything (recon in the E Pac excepted).

03Z out for JTWC, up to 95kt from 75kt with previous advisory and forecast peak of 130kt:
WTIO51 PGTW 300300
WARNING ATCG MIL 04A NIO 151030011150
2015103000 04A CHAPALA 006 01 260 05 SATL 020
T000 142N 0618E 095 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 143N 0605E 115 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 095 SE QD 095 SW QD 115 NW QD
T024 143N 0592E 125 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 105 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 144N 0579E 130 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 125 NW QD
T048 146N 0564E 130 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 115 SE QD 115 SW QD 125 NW QD
T072 152N 0535E 115 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 162N 0509E 070 R034 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD
T120 182N 0494E 035
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (CHAPALA) WARNING NR 006
<rest omitted>

[supercane]

IMD 03Z at 80kt, 978 mb.
TROPICAL STORM ‘CHAPALA’ ADVISORY NO. NINE ISSUED AT 0300 UTC OF 30TH OCTOBER 2015
BASED ON 0000 UTC CHARTS.
THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM, ‘CHAPALA’ OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA
MOVED WESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 12 KMPH DURING PAST 6 HOURS , AND LAY CENTERED
AT 0000 UTC OF TODAY, THE 30TH OCTOBER 2015 OVER NEAR LATITUDE 14.3°N AND LONGITUDE
61.8°E, ABOUT 1290 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI(43003) AND ABOUT 880 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF SALALAH(41316) (OMAN). IT WOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS,AND INTENSIFY FURTHER
INTO AN EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM AND CROSS NORTH YEMEN AND ADJOINING OMAN
COAST AS A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM BETWEEN LATITUDE 15.0°N AND 16.0°N AROUND 1800
UTC OF 2 NOVEMBER 2015.
FORECAST FOR TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN IN THE TABLE BELOW
Date/time(UTC) Position (lat. 0N/ long. 0E) Maximum sustained surface wind speed (kmph) Category of cyclonic Disturbance
30-10-2015/0000 14.3/61.8 140-150 gusting to 165 Very severe cyclonic storm
30-10-2015/0600 14.4/61.2 150-160 gusting to 175 Very severe cyclonic storm
30-10-2015/1200 14.5/60.6 160-170 gusting to 185 Extremely severe cyclonic storm
30-10-2015/1800 14.5/60.2 170-180 gusting to 195 Extremely severe cyclonic storm
31-10-2015/0000 14.4/59.6 180-190 gusting to 210 Extremely severe cyclonic storm
31-10-2015/1200 14.2/58.2 190-200 gusting to 220 Extremely severe cyclonic storm
01-11-2015/0000 14.2/56.9 190-200 gusting to 220 Extremely severe cyclonic storm
01-11-2015/1200 14.3/55.6 180-190 gusting to 210 Extremely severe cyclonic storm
02-11-2015/0000 14.5/54.1 170-180 gusting to 200 Extremely severe cyclonic storm
02-11-2015/1200 14.9/52.1 150-160 gusting to 175 Very severe cyclonic storm
03-11-2015/0000 15.3/50.1 100-110 gusting to 120 Severe cyclonic storm
03-11-2015/1200 15.8/48.5 50-60 gusting to 70 Depression
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERY, INTENSITY IS T 4.5. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND
SPEED IS 80 KNOTS GUSTING TO 90 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 978 HPA.
SEA CONDITION IS PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. ASSOCIATED LOW AND MEDIUM
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS AT MANY PLACES OVER
AREA BETWEEN LAT 12.0°N TO 17.0°N AND LONG 59.0°E TO 65.0°E. THE MINIMUM CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURE AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE IS ABOUT MINUS 90°C.
REMARKS:
THE CONVECTION INCREASED IN PAST 12 HOURS WITH INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
BONDING AROUND THE CENTRE.AND IMPROVEMENT IN CENTRAL FEATURE. THE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE IS 30
0C. THE OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY IS ABOUT 50-75
KJ/CM2
TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. IT GRADUALLY DECREASES WESTWARD
AND IS ABOUT 15-35 KJ/CM2 WEST OF 60°E. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ABOUT 5-15 KNOTS AROUND
THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY HAS INCREASED DURING PAST 06 HRS
AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS THE SAME. THERE IS FAVOURABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LYING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM
CENTRE. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE AT 200 HPA LEVEL RUNS ALONG 15
0N. THERE IS
ANOTHER ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND THE
CYCLONIC STORM LIES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTICYCLONE. IT IS HELPING IN
INCREASING MORE WESTWARD COMPONENT IN THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. THE MADDEN
JULLIAN OSCILLATION INDEX LIES IN PHASE 2 WITH AMPLITUDE GREATER THAN 2 AND IT WOULD
CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN SAME PHASE WITH SIMILAR AMPLITUDE FOR NEXT 5 DAYS. IT IS HIGHLY
FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE CLOSER TO
YEMEN AND ADJOINING OMAN COAST, IT WOULD EXPERIENCE LOWER OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY AS
WELL AS INTRUSION OF DRY AIR FROM NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT, THERE IS POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHT
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE SEA BEFORE THE LANDFALL.
MOST OF THE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS ARE SUGGESTING GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IN NEXT 24 HRS. DYNAMICAL STATISTICAL MODELS ALSO SUGGEST
THE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. CONSIDERING THE MOVEMENT, MOST OF THE
MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS ABOUT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT
TOWARDS YEMEN AND ADJOINING OMAN COAST ACROSS GULF OF ADEN. THE PREDICTED TRACK IS
MAINLY BASED ON MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
(M.MOHAPATRA)
HEAD RSMC NEW DELHI

[1900hurricane]

Eye temp continues to skyrocket, about to break positive.

[1900hurricane]

Finally got some microwave.



Also getting the first visible of the new day.

[Yellow Evan]

Eyeballing, the eye looks around 5C. Fortunately, no viewing angle issues here, even though the MSAT 7 resolution is quite poor.

[Yellow Evan]

What? A reasonable Dvorak fix from the JTWC? For a change, they did something right.

TPIO11 PGTW 300302

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (CHAPALA)

B. 30/0230Z

C. 14.26N

D. 61.54E

E. THREE/MET7

F. T6.5/6.5/D3.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURR W (+0.5 ADJ
FOR CMG) YIELDS A DT OF 6.5. PT YIELDS A 6.0 WHILE MET YIELDS A
4.5. DBO DT.

[mrbagyo]

looks like it's approachicng cat 5 if not already.