EPAC: LESTER - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

I knew this would happen lol. With days to intensify, no way this was just peaking at 90 knots...

Exactly.

How many times have we seen this in the EPAC? Looks like it's not done intensifying.

[Kingarabian]

Looks to be closing in on cat.4 status. Each frame, the eye continues to warm. The band of 70C cloud tops is almost fully closed around the eye.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 AUG 2016 Time : 110000 UTC
Lat : 18:10:26 N Lon : 128:19:33 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 958.0mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 5.8 5.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : -5.6C Cloud Region Temp : -63.9C

Scene Type : EYE

[Yellow Evan]

B ring done. T5.5 at this point.

[Ntxw]

Wow very nice comeback from Lester

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

TXPZ23 KNES 291220
TCSENP

A.  13E (LESTER)

B.  29/1200Z

C.  18.1N

D.  128.6W

E.  ONE/GOES-W

F.  T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR/SWIR

H.  REMARKS...OW EYE EMBEDDED IN MG AND SURROUNDED BY LG WITHOUT EYE
ADJUSTMENT YIELDS A DT OF 4.5. MET=5.5 AND PT=5.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...KIM

Ummm no.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 AUG 2016 Time : 113000 UTC
Lat : 18:04:34 N Lon : 128:26:39 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 958.0mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 6.0 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

Center Temp : +0.5C Cloud Region Temp : -64.8C

Scene Type : EYE

[talkon]

Up to 105 knots

13E LESTER 160829 1200 18.0N 128.6W EPAC 105 961

BTW, 06Z GFS crazily have this strengthening in WPAC at Day 16, likely beating John's record for longest-traveling storm.

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  LESTER      EP132016  08/29/16  12 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND   105   108   107   102    98    89    80    73    66    61    53    52    48
V (KT) LAND      105   108   107   102    98    89    80    73    66    61    53    52    48
V (KT) LGEM      105   109   107   102    97    90    83    77    72    68    64    60    56
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        12    12    13    13    13    11     9     9     7     5     5     5    10
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -2    -4    -4    -4    -5    -4    -3    -2     0     2     2     5     4
SHEAR DIR         80    88    82   105   105   109   120   100   146   161   172   212   197
SST (C)         27.3  27.0  26.8  26.8  27.1  27.2  26.7  26.7  27.0  27.0  26.7  26.5  26.7
POT. INT. (KT)   138   135   133   133   136   136   131   131   134   134   131   130   132
200 MB T (C)   -52.8 -52.8 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5
200 MB VXT (C)   0.8   0.8   0.8   0.9   1.0   0.8   0.7   0.7   0.5   0.7   0.6   0.4   0.6
TH_E DEV (C)       5     5     5     5     5     5     6     6     6     6     6     6     6
700-500 MB RH     42    40    41    40    39    41    42    43    40    43    47    50    53
MODEL VTX (KT)    22    21    22    22    23    23    23    23    22    22    20    21    19
850 MB ENV VOR    50    46    50    63    59    61    64    62    51    53    29    35    29
200 MB DIV         0     5     4   -15   -10    -1    26    18    12    16    15    26     0
700-850 TADV      -5     0    -1    -2    -3    -1    -2     1     6     2     5     7     9
LAND (KM)       1767  1866  1968  2078  2190  1973  1741  1489  1237   981   757   492   253
LAT (DEG N)     18.0  18.1  18.1  18.2  18.2  18.1  18.2  18.2  18.3  18.6  19.0  19.8  20.8
LONG(DEG W)    128.6 129.9 131.1 132.4 133.7 136.1 138.3 140.7 143.1 145.5 147.6 150.1 152.8
STM SPEED (KT)    13    12    12    12    12    11    11    11    11    11    11    13    13
HEAT CONTENT      14    10     5     5     9    17    14     3     9     6     6     5     9

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14      CX,CY: -13/  0
  T-12 MAX WIND:  80            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  455  (MEAN=586)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:   9.9 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  88.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR):            0.0

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL         -2.  -3.  -6.  -8. -14. -22. -30. -36. -40. -43. -45. -45.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG    -2.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -5.  -3.   0.   3.   5.   7.   6.   5.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   2.   1.   1.   0.   0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  PERSISTENCE            7.   9.   9.   8.   5.   1.  -1.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -5.  -5.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   1.   1.   0.  -1.   0.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  700-500 MB RH          0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -6.  -6.  -6.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   2.   2.   1.   0.  -3.  -1.  -4.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -2.  -2.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           3.   2.  -3.  -7. -16. -25. -32. -39. -44. -52. -53. -57.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):  105. LAT, LON:   18.0   128.6

      ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER     08/29/16  12 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):    25.0     -22.0  to   38.5       0.78         999.0
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :    29.8      40.3  to  144.5       0.00           0.0
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :     8.6       0.0  to   75.9       0.11         999.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :     9.9      38.9  to    2.1       0.79         999.0
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :    12.8      18.9  to    1.4       0.35         999.0
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :   105.0      22.5  to  132.0       0.37         999.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    -3.2     -11.0  to  135.3       0.05         999.0
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):   926.2     638.0  to  -68.2       0.00           0.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :    -0.2       2.1  to   -1.7       0.59         999.0
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:    17.7      81.4  to    0.0       0.78         999.0
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean (12.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%)
 
 Matrix of RI probabilities
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:     0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
    Logistic:     4.7%    0.3%    0.7%    0.5%    0.2%    0.1%    0.0%
    Bayesian:     0.1%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
   Consensus:     1.6%    0.1%    0.2%    0.2%    0.1%    0.0%    0.0%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER     08/29/16  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Ntxw]

He is definitely trying for cat 4

ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 AUG 2016 Time : 120000 UTC
Lat : 18:04:38 N Lon : 128:33:45 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 953.7mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 6.2 6.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

Center Temp : +10.9C Cloud Region Temp : -66.0C

Scene Type : EYE

[Ntxw]

This needs to be given cat 4 and more than just the minimum 115kts imo. Almost completed the white ring.

[Yellow Evan]

B ring needs to thicken for T6.0, but it's getting there. WMG eye would also give this another half a T number.

[talkon]

The eye is already WMG, so this is already T6.0 (WMG in LG with B ring)

EDIT: well the eye is back to OW in the 1330Z frame.

[Yellow Evan]

I thought that was a spec of W within the OW, it's early...

But looking at ADT, you're correct.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 AUG 2016 Time : 130000 UTC
Lat : 18:02:47 N Lon : 128:47:11 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 949.4mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.2 6.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : +9.4C Cloud Region Temp : -67.1C

Scene Type : EYE

[Ntxw]

Both Lester and Madeline. Hawaii far left..

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 AUG 2016 Time : 133000 UTC
Lat : 18:02:46 N Lon : 128:54:13 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 949.4mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.2 6.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : +4.4C Cloud Region Temp : -67.7C

Scene Type : EYE

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132016
800 AM PDT MON AUG 29 2016

Lester's satellite presentation is quite impressive this morning.
The cyclone's eye continues to warm and and the inner core
cloud top temperatures have cooled considerably. A blend of 1200
UTC satellite intensity estimates of 105 kt, and a recent ADT
objective intensity estimate yields an increased initial intensity
of 110 kt for this advisory.

Lester should remain in a low-shear environment for the next several
days, with only some gradual decrease in the oceanic water
temperature. The majority of the intensity guidance indicate that
the hurricane will peak within the next 12 hours or so, then
gradual decrease. It appears that the atmospheric environment and
the sea surface temperatures match similar criteria for an annular
hurricane manifestation. If Lester acquires annular hurricane
characteristics, the cyclone could remain stronger longer than
reflected in the official forecast and what the intensity guidance
suggests. The NHC forecast is adjusted a bit higher in the short
term, then shows gradual weakening and falls in line with the IVCN
multi-model consensus.

The initial motion estimate remains 270/13. A strong, deep-layer
ridge to the north of Lester should steer the cyclone on a continued
westward course during the next 3 days. Beyond that period, the
large-scale models indicate some interaction with Madeline to the
southwest of Lester which induces a gradual turn toward the
west-northwest through day 5. The official forecast follows suit
and is based on a multi-model consensus and is quite similar to the
previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 18.1N 129.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 18.1N 131.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 18.2N 133.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 18.2N 135.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 18.2N 138.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 18.4N 143.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 19.3N 147.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 21.0N 153.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[Ntxw]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 AUG 2016 Time : 140000 UTC
Lat : 18:02:48 N Lon : 129:01:10 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 947.3mb/117.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.4 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : +5.2C Cloud Region Temp : -68.4C

Scene Type : EYE

[Yellow Evan]

700-500 MB RH 42 40 41 40 39 41 42 43 40 43 47 50 53

Nice reminder on how garbage this output can be. Lester's small size shielded it from dry air problems in RH's of 40's, while I've seen systems in 60s RH struggle with dry air.

[Ntxw]