ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[Hammy]

Hammy, do you happen to have a link to the latest MJO update? I think it updates weekly but havn't seen a graph since about a week ago when someone posted one.

I usually just get them here http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
203 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

A tropical wave is over the eastern Atlantic extending from 08N to
19N with axis near 21W expected to move at 15 kt within the next
24 hours. The wave is associated with a 1010 mb low that is
centered east of the Cabo Verde Islands near 16N20W. Enhanced
Meteosat imagery show Saharan dry air and dust intrusion into the
wave environment, which is limiting the convection to scattered
showers mainly east of the wave axis.

[SoupBone]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
203 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

A tropical wave is over the eastern Atlantic extending from 08N to
19N with axis near 21W expected to move at 15 kt within the next
24 hours. The wave is associated with a 1010 mb low that is
centered east of the Cabo Verde Islands near 16N20W. Enhanced
Meteosat imagery show Saharan dry air and dust intrusion into the
wave environment, which is limiting the convection to scattered
showers mainly east of the wave axis.

This doesn't explain why it was dropped though.

[Hammy]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
203 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

A tropical wave is over the eastern Atlantic extending from 08N to
19N with axis near 21W expected to move at 15 kt within the next
24 hours. The wave is associated with a 1010 mb low that is
centered east of the Cabo Verde Islands near 16N20W. Enhanced
Meteosat imagery show Saharan dry air and dust intrusion into the
wave environment, which is limiting the convection to scattered
showers mainly east of the wave axis.

This doesn't explain why it was dropped though.

They mainly initiate these to run models, apparently the models aren't showing a whole lot anymore and development isn't quite as likely--they'll probably re-tag it in a few days if conditions improve.

[cycloneye]

I asked Eric Blake the question about the invest.

 https://twitter.com/CycloforumsPR/status/770709325958348801




 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/770736468990038016

[cycloneye]

A weak area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located over the far eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more
favorable for some gradual development of this system by this
weekend while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[Gustywind]

A weak area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located over the far eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more
favorable for some gradual development of this system by this
weekend while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

NHC maintains it at 40%... interresting ! They surely see what many of us don't see. So let's have a small eye on it during the next couple of days islanders.

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
757 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

Tropical wave extends from 10N24W to 20N22W moving W at 15-20 kt.
A 1009 mb low is centered along the wave axis near 16N where
global models indicate a maximum 850 mb relative vorticity. In
addition...the low and vorticity coincide with a 700 mb low and
associated troughing that has emerged off the coast of West
Africa. Isolated moderate convection is from 07N-17N between
16W-22W.

[chaser1]

Hammy, do you happen to have a link to the latest MJO update? I think it updates weekly but havn't seen a graph since about a week ago when someone posted one.

I usually just get them here http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

Thanks Hammy. New update would seem to indicate the S.E. U.S might be under the gun up to mid Sept.

[gatorcane]

Whoa SAL really has ripped into this:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Steve H.]

Why is it now Cabo Verde islands, instead of Cape Verde islands? I guess more political correctness?

[centuryv58]

Hammy, do you happen to have a link to the latest MJO update? I think it updates weekly but havn't seen a graph since about a week ago when someone posted one.

I usually just get them here http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

Thanks Hammy. New update would seem to indicate the S.E. U.S might be under the gun up to mid Sept.

Yes, you are correct IMO. The MDR has defied all attempts to bury it.

[abajan]

Why is it now Cabo Verde islands, instead of Cape Verde islands? I guess more political correctness?

This explains it.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Why is it now Cabo Verde islands, instead of Cape Verde islands? I guess more political correctness?

Not political correctness. They just asked that the islands be called what the people who live there call them. Apparently, the name was getting translated, and had many different translations of it depending on where you were. I don't think it was an inappropriate or overly politically correct request.

[Medtronic15]

OMG! This invest maybe never develop:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... E5new.html

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

A tropical wave extends across the Cabo Verde Islands from 10N25W
to 1010 mb low pressure near 15N25W to 19N22W, moving west at
15-20 kt. The gradient between the low pressure and ridging to
the north is enhancing northeast winds across the eastern Atlantic
north of 15N and east of 30W. The embedded circulation is drawing
rich deep layer moisture northward across the eastern Cabo Verde
Islands, possibly bringing a few showers to the region. The system
is also entraining dry Saharan air and dust to the north and west
of the islands, limiting convection.

[abajan]

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO

A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located over the far eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands.
This wave is in an environment of very dry air, which should prevent
any significant development for a few days. Some development is
possible over the weekend when the wave nears the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
701 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016
A tropical wave extends across the Cabo Verde Islands from 10N26W
to 1010 mb low pressure near 15N25W to 19N24W, moving west at
15-20 kt. The gradient between the low pressure and ridging to the
north is enhancing northeast winds across the eastern Atlantic
north of 15N and east of 30W. The embedded circulation is drawing
rich deep layer moisture northward across the eastern Cabo Verde
Islands, possibly bringing a few showers to the region. The system
is also interning dry Saharan air and dust to the north and west
of the islands, limiting convection.

[Gustywind]

Dry air and dust continuing to diminish convection activity with this twave. Whereas, looking at the loop, further east and given my untrained eyes... a vigorous squall line should exiting off shore during the next 24 h-48h. I don't know what the models will do with but it has a decent appareance. Wait and see.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... E5new.html