ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Hurricaneman]

I think out to 120hrs is pretty much locked in but after that is when things get sketchy

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[bamajammer4eva]

Most do

The Gulf period is unlikely if the Ensembles are correct. Euro looks like maybe some cooler days are ahead for this area

[Kingarabian]

I think out to 120hrs is pretty much locked in but after that is when things get sketchy

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

When comparing the GFS and the Euro, true. But I think in the next 72 hours we'll know. 97L's movement will be telling.

[LarryWx]

The 0Z Euro actually looks kind of similar to Hazel of 1954 through Hispaniola:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[Ivanhater]

We all models have been proven unreliable this season. But the Euro is all over the place...we go from a fast east flow to a stall and a hit on south America and due north?

[Ivanhater]

Stout ridge driving into Yucatan to a stall going due north in central Caribbean. ...doesn't make sense

[PTrackerLA]

We all models have been proven unreliable this season. But the Euro is all over the place...we go from a fast east flow to a stall and a hit on south America and due north?

It's an absolutely bizarre track with the SA landfall, there's really been awful run to run consistency with the Euro.

[Kingarabian]

Stout ridge driving into Yucatan to a stall going due north in central Caribbean. ...doesn't make sense

I think the stall happens due to the fact that the ridge erodes and a weakness opens up. Don't systems usually slow down as they approach a weakness?

GFS is pretty much in agreement that future Mathew will be picked up. The difference is when.

[Ivanhater]

We all models have been proven unreliable this season. But the Euro is all over the place...we go from a fast east flow to a stall and a hit on south America and due north?

It's an absolutely bizarre track with the SA landfall, there's really been awful run to run consistency with the Euro.

Yeah...euro has been all over the place..if it gets it right in the end let's not forget the wild swings right now

[Alyono]

Stout ridge driving into Yucatan to a stall going due north in central Caribbean. ...doesn't make sense

its the paramaterization. The reason I give the EC very little weight in the deep tropics

[Ivanhater]

Stout ridge driving into Yucatan to a stall going due north in central Caribbean. ...doesn't make sense

I think the stall happens due to the fact that the ridge erodes and a weakness opens up. Don't systems usually slow down as they approach a weakness?

GFS is pretty much in agreement that future Mathew will be picked up. The difference is when.

But a huge ridge driving it SW into SA which is rare enough to a huge trough diving that far south to pick it up

Hope to see some snow in the U.S with that pattern change

[Ivanhater]

Stout ridge driving into Yucatan to a stall going due north in central Caribbean. ...doesn't make sense

its the paramaterization. The reason I give the EC very little weight in the deep tropics

I've seen you mention that Derek but isn't the 500mb been awful on the Euro this season?

[Kingarabian]

Stout ridge driving into Yucatan to a stall going due north in central Caribbean. ...doesn't make sense

I think the stall happens due to the fact that the ridge erodes and a weakness opens up. Don't systems usually slow down as they approach a weakness?

GFS is pretty much in agreement that future Mathew will be picked up. The difference is when.

But a huge ridge driving it SW into SA which is rare enough to a huge trough diving that far south to pick it up

Hope to see some snow in the U.S with that pattern change

True. I guess thinking about it now... with a ridge that strong it should continue to move further west.

[USTropics]

Well we'll have the first runs of the GFDL and HWRF in a few hours, while not the best for genesis, interested to see what they show.

[Ivanhater]

The potential this has we will be analyzing every run but this year..we have no go to model

[LarryWx]

Tracks similar to the 0Z Euro track up through its skim of S.A. within about two weeks of 9/29:

#4 of 1876
#4 of 1877
#7 of 1892
Hazel of 1954
Janet of 1955
Joan of 1988

So, these occurred about once every 25 years or so.

[Kingarabian]

Well we'll have the first runs of the GFDL and HWRF in a few hours, while not the best for genesis, interested to see what they show.

Man. Those models will show a Cat. 3, then a Cat.5, then a TS, then an open wave.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Kingarabian]

Tracks similar to the 0Z Euro track up through its skim of S.A. within about two weeks of 9/29:

#4 of 1876
#4 of 1877
#7 of 1892
Hazel of 1954
Janet of 1955
Joan of 1988

So, these occurred about once every 25 years or so.

Great work!

[Ivanhater]

New UK dives unto SA as well...maybe onto something

[USTropics]

The difference between the operational GFS and ECMWF after 120 hours is the position and movements of that cutoff low over the Ohio Valley and the huge low pressure system that erodes the Azores High. I've created an animate gif of both runs to show this at 24 hour intervals.

The operational ECMWF actually has the cutoff low being blocked at 120 hours (retrograding westward even), the operational GFS does not show this happening. The amplitude and positioning on the GFS run of the cutoff low actually seems to erode the western side of the subtropical ridge some, not driving 97L WSW at the same timeframe as the ECMWF.

Also watch the cutoff low moving off Nova Scotia coast that erodes the Azores High. The ECMWF is nearly 48 hours faster and much stronger then the GFS (you can see this in the 850mb vort better).

Also note that while the GFS has booted that cutoff low over the Ohio Valley a long time ago, the ECMWF still has it sitting off the NE coast at 216 hours. At 240 hours, the GFS has a building ridge off the EC, meanwhile the cutoff low prevents this on the ECMWF.

GFS


ECMWF