ATL: COLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COLIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
700 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2016

...COLIN NEARING THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 84.7W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SSE OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM W OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Englewood
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Oregon Inlet North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Colin was
located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 84.7 West. Colin is
moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h). A northeastward
motion at a faster forward speed is expected tonight and Tuesday.
On this track, the center of Colin is forecast to move onshore of
the Florida Big Bend area in a few hours, then move across northern
Florida and southeastern Georgia through early Tuesday morning, and
move near or over the southeastern coast of the United States
Tuesday. However, it's important to note that the strongest winds
and heaviest rains are well removed from the center.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast on Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
to the southeast of the center. A WeatherFlow station at
Clearwater Beach Pier recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph
(65 km/h) with a gust to 49 mph (80 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Colin is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible across the
northeastern Yucatan peninsula, western Cuba, northern Florida,
southeastern Georgia, and coastal areas of the Carolinas through
Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft with slightly higher amounts
possible in a few locations.
Tampa Bay south to Florida Bay...1 to 2 ft.

Localized coastal flooding and dangerous surf are possible along the
Atlantic coast from Florida to North Carolina within the tropical
storm warning area.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Brief squalls with winds to near tropical storm force will
be moving through portions of South Florida through this evening.
Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the
warning area along the west coast of the Florida peninsula through
the evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the
warning area along the Atlantic coast by overnight tonight.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible tonight across portions of
Florida and far southern Georgia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[stormwise]

http://i.imgur.com/XEHK8UD.gifv
radar loop just a mess.

[chaser1]

http://i.imgur.com/XEHK8UD.gifv
radar loop just a mess.

Yes, that radar really is a mess. Little to no real banding and the energy from the system is so lacking that all the daytime heating that we had here in the Orlando area didn't help to muster any significant convection. Also had no wind that exceeded 15 or 20 miles per hour in gusts. Perhaps tonight might bring some added showers but the decent few areas of convection formed to our northeast.

[BobHarlem]

I'm not sure how long Florida will keep getting rain. Based on this sat loop, It may rain for a bit, it's crazy how this particular moisture stream goes from Mexico to NC, almost looks like TD#1 in the East Pacific is part of it.

[HurricaneBelle]

Wind has really picked up in the Tampa Bay area. Was just driving around and could feel it as a drag on the car when driving, definitely the most tropical storm-like this system has seemed today outside of the major squall that went through around 11:30 AM.

At 8PM, Tampa is reporting a South wind at 29 gusting to 44, and St. Pete/Clearwater has the wind at 31 gusting to 48.

[stormhunter7]

might just be me, but i think the COC is getting squished to the south and to the SE. I don't see the NNE movement. Hard to tell with no convection near center and screaming mid-upper level winds over it.

[RL3AO]

Could very easily be post-tropical at 11pm. Circulation is really getting stretched out.

[Nimbus]

With that anticyclone high building over the Yucatan channel I wonder if there is any remnant energy that could develop?
Usually the convection is just associated with lift from the shear of the departing storm.

[TheStormExpert]

Models do not show anythng developing in the foreseeable future.

[wxman57]

Could very easily be post-tropical at 11pm. Circulation is really getting stretched out.

Yeah, it doesn't look very tropical any longer.

[TheStormExpert]

Could very easily be post-tropical at 11pm. Circulation is really getting stretched out.

Yeah, it doesn't look very tropical any longer.

Of course knowing the NHC they could keep advisories going for a little longer.

[RL3AO]

Could very easily be post-tropical at 11pm. Circulation is really getting stretched out.

Yeah, it doesn't look very tropical any longer.

Of course knowing the NHC they could keep advisories going for a little longer.

They don't really need to though. They can continue advisories and warnings with it being post tropical (thanks to Sandy).

[robbielyn]

Here in hernando county we are getting howling gusts. the strongest we have had all day.

[psyclone]

Wind has really picked up in the Tampa Bay area. Was just driving around and could feel it as a drag on the car when driving, definitely the most tropical storm-like this system has seemed today outside of the major squall that went through around 11:30 AM.

At 8PM, Tampa is reporting a South wind at 29 gusting to 44, and St. Pete/Clearwater has the wind at 31 gusting to 48.

this reminds me of a Fall gale up north...except it's warm. it feels great. saw a few breaks of blue sky right before it got dark...looked very cool among the low clouds speeding by. shallow convection has been increasing out in the gulf so it looks like quick passing showers are coming back.

[Blown Away]

Here in hernando county we are getting howling gusts. the strongest we have had all day.

What is your estimate of the gusts?

[robbielyn]

well at the airport it said 25 so maybe 35 im truly guessing cause it was howling for several minutes though its calmed down now. If it was more or less. my app said 25 but baynews 9 said 17 and didnt put the gust up there.

[OuterBanker]

Went bowling tonight. Apperantly a tropical storm warning was issued while I was there. Ugly mess and I wouldn't consider it a tropical storm. But, portions of Hatters Island are already flooded. The foot of rain last week from Bonnie didn't help matters. Interesting note. The gfs has shifted west to the Euro. With track and heavier rain amounts here. Euro wins again.

[caneman]

Recent gusts in the area have been up to 40 m ph.

[stormwise]

18z 06 Ncep has another weak storm around tampa in 66hrs.

[thundercam96]

18z 06 Ncep has another weak storm around tampa in 66hrs.

Can you post screencap?