ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[La Sirena]

Yep, it's strengthening and it has slowed down further to 15 mph. Don't worry, I won't do anymore speed analyses. Depending on current trends, Matthew could become a hurricane tomorrow instead of Friday. The pressure has caught up with the winds.

I appreciate the speed analysis! It's pertinent to the models. Remember the Euro had it slower while traveling and GFS faster.

And I'm not surprised at how quickly it appears to be ramping up!

Thanks. I thought it might have been annoying at first but yeah, the speed trends do make a good point when it comes to the models. It's slowed down enough to stack better and it already looks on its way. And yes, the Euro was slower and that's not good down the road and it has more time to strengthen.

Good point regarding the stacking aspect. I just feel that not taking into account all the little stuff is detrimental to fleshing out which model is performing better at this time. While this system isn't great for anyone, I'm watching like crazy considering I live on a rock...surrounded by other rocks....connected by bridges. Lol.

Can you tell I haven't experienced a hurricane yet ?

[bahamaswx]

When did we develop this culture of having the majority of the discussion in the models thread, rather than in the discussion thread?

[MGC]

We have not seen upper level conditions in the Caribbean this good all season. Matthew's outflow looks good in all quadrants. SST are warm....all the ingredients are there for Matthew to continue to intensify. Could be a hurricane by the 5am advisory. Odds are increasing that Matthew will attain major hurricane status. Jamaica, Cuba or Haiti could get slammed in a few days......MGC

Totally agree with you MGC. I would add I am very concerned about the Bahamas too as well as great potential of Matthew impacting there.

Yes, forgot the Bahamas.....Matthew's intensity depends on its track. If it tracks over eastern Cuba than its intensity will be a good bit diminished as there are some good sized mountains there. If however Matthew tracks through the Windward Passage its core will remain intact and a formidable hurricane could be in the Bahamas......MGC

[JaxGator]

I appreciate the speed analysis! It's pertinent to the models. Remember the Euro had it slower while traveling and GFS faster.

And I'm not surprised at how quickly it appears to be ramping up!

Thanks. I thought it might have been annoying at first but yeah, the speed trends do make a good point when it comes to the models. It's slowed down enough to stack better and it already looks on its way. And yes, the Euro was slower and that's not good down the road and it has more time to strengthen.

Good point regarding the stacking aspect. I just feel that not taking into account all the little stuff is detrimental to fleshing out which model is performing better at this time. While this system isn't great for anyone, I'm watching like crazy considering I live on a rock...surrounded by other rocks....connected by bridges. Lol.

Can you tell I haven't experienced a hurricane yet ?

Lol. No I didn't actually. The Keys have a bad history with hurricanes with some of the worst in history. And you're right, it's important to the forecast and future model runs. I'm watching too as I'm sure a lot are. It's going to stressful and awful for folks potentially in harms way.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

When did we develop this culture of having the majority of the discussion in the models thread, rather than in the discussion thread?

You have a very good point regrettably, things have gotten rather out of hand.

I do not envy our moderators in the days to come.

[northjaxpro]

We have not seen upper level conditions in the Caribbean this good all season. Matthew's outflow looks good in all quadrants. SST are warm....all the ingredients are there for Matthew to continue to intensify. Could be a hurricane by the 5am advisory. Odds are increasing that Matthew will attain major hurricane status. Jamaica, Cuba or Haiti could get slammed in a few days......MGC

Totally agree with you MGC. I would add I am very concerned about the Bahamas too as well as great potential of Matthew impacting there.

Yes, forgot the Bahamas.....Matthew's intensity depends on its track. If it tracks over eastern Cuba than its intensity will be a good bit diminished as there are some good sized mountains there. If however Matthew tracks through the Windward Passage its core will remain intact and a formidable hurricane could be in the Bahamas......MGC

Yes, absolutely. If the scenario manifests that Matthew somehow where to make it away from Hispaniola without much interaction with that island through the Windward Passage, with that core intact, it could be as bad a situation as you could imagine for The Bahamas.

[TJRE]

23:45 UTC


“The storm starts, when the drops start dropping
When the drops stop dropping then the storm starts stopping.”
― Dr. Seuss
http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/

[tolakram]

IR loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=14&lon=-63&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=gray&map=county

[JPmia]

That is going to be a big hurricane.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

That is going to be a big hurricane.

In more ones than one potentially: meaning of course in terms of size, strength and maybe impacts. Time will tell.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[tolakram]

One more.

So far no turning in the levels we can see, so still a ways to go in my opinion but it looks angry.

[Alyono]

Martinique and St. Lucia are taking it very hard this evening. Would not be surprised to hear of flooding similar to what Dominica received last year

http://www.barbadosweather.org/Composit ... 1475110513

[toad strangler]

When did we develop this culture of having the majority of the discussion in the models thread, rather than in the discussion thread?

There are a TON of wx weenies here.

[tolakram]

saved loop of the radar

[psyclone]

When did we develop this culture of having the majority of the discussion in the models thread, rather than in the discussion thread?

There are a TON of wx weenies here.

I thought we used to have a model discussion thread (like the recon discussion thread). that needs to be brought back. Or, as an alternative, make the model thread image only posts to force the discussion over here. I prefer option A.

[tolakram]

When did we develop this culture of having the majority of the discussion in the models thread, rather than in the discussion thread?

There are a TON of wx weenies here.

I thought we used to have a model discussion thread (like the recon discussion thread). that needs to be brought back. Or, as an alternative, make the model thread image only posts to force the discussion over here. I prefer option A.

We already have too many threads. Just need to train people to not talk in the model thread and come back over here. It's a work in progress.

[AJC3]

Gang,

We (the admins and mods) have noticed the civility level on the forums has taken a nosedive since this morning. There is far too much bickering and sniping going on about each other's opinions. It's perfectly fine to disagree with someone on here, and have your own viewpoint (it helps A LOT if you have some solid reasoning behind it), but PLEASE...before you hit the enter key on your posts...ask yourself if you are addressing the other person the way that you would want to be addressed.

And if you find your post or posts are disappearing, it's because we're trying REALLY REALLY hard to keep the threads as clutter-free as possible. Remember, we do have a chat room you can go to if you want to be more informal, OT, etc.

Play nice, gang.

Thanks.

[gatorcane]

What I keep thinking is as complex as this setup beyond 5 days is, the NAVGEM and CMC - normally unreliable models even in the medium-range have been basically showing the same quick recurve east of Florida and into the Bahamas even in the long-range from several days ago. Certainly the end-result cannot be as straightforward as what these models keep showing run after run. Usually you can be assured the storm is not going to do what these models forecast.

[SeGaBob]

I wouldn't be worried anywhere on the East Coast. When models shift east there's no going back. I don't care if it's still a week out or 1 day out those are the facts. People might jump on me over this...



Edited to put the disclaimer in for this type of post.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.