ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Lets put it this way.. if it leaves the carrib more organized and deeper than the models are showing ( not all but most) expect something similar to 00z euro last night where it gets farther north then runs into the ridge intensifying to landfall. if it has no well defined circ and stays on a steady wnw to NW path then it could make it much farther west and stay south.

[CrazyC83]

3. REMARKS:.....ADDED
A. MISSION FOR 23/2330Z AND 24/0530Z CANCELED...ADDED
B. NEXT MISSION ON SUSPECT AREA 24/1500Z.....ADDED
C. THE GLOBAL HAWK (NASA 872) IS PLANNING A 24 HOUR
RESEARCH MISSION AROUND TROPICAL STORM GASTON. DEPARTURE
24/1000Z. ALTITUDE 55,000 TO 65,000 FT. 86 DROPS.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, so your take is that the mean center will likely slide through or east of the Mona Passage, i'm taking it?

given the dynamics of the tilt in the wave axis and steering the "llc" will likely be in the NE Carrib by morning and passing over or just east of PR during the remainder of the day.

Hi Aric, long time. Long night here for some of us. Do you expect 99L/08L/Hermine to slow down while passing NE of us or at the present velocity?

not likely to slow much. the steering/trade winds are quite steady since it should stay fairly shallow it will likely keep its forward speed. if it were to deepen more it would slow some

[NDG]

By looking at the radar loop and surface observations still looks like 99L has to go a little further to get organized, the surface circulation seems to be near 17N and 60.5W, still elongated SE to NW while the MLC is to the SE of it closer to 15.5 N

[Steve]

So it's not good to take a break and log in to see Eric Blake wanting to rub a lucky penny. I had to go inspect a bunch of properties in Tangipahoa and Livingston last Thursday and have to go to Acadiana this week to check a dozen more. There is a lot of debris around and a lot of people have lost personal property and had to begin gutting homes. The pain and suffering is real. Im only speaking for myself but if my molded and destroyed house was hit by Rita, it wouldn't have really mattered since I was down to a few changes of clothes anyway. But the idea of a year with double or triple destruction for some of those folks is crazy just the same. They have my full empathy.

I don't have much to lose anymore, and I live on a second floor 15 feet up. In the outside chance a threat was to materialize for SELA, I think I'm going to stay. We will beat the potential rush and stock up on food, water, gasoline and and booze over the next few days. It never hurts to be ready

[SolarBear73]

I discovered this site yesterday and am now addicted. It's refreshing to have access to storm information and analysis that isn't super-hyped or sugar-coated. I am grateful for the insights, information, and discussion fellow members provide.
I moved to the Florida panhandle in 2004, five months before Ivan hit. Talk about hurricane initiation! I have not become complacent in the years since Ivan and realize the damage and destruction hurricanes can cause. Thanks to the discussion on this site I will be better educated and prepared when it comes to hurricanes. Now that I have a wife and a 1 year old son, I will be closely monitoring the development of 99l. My wife as I just discussed what our plan would be should 99l become a hurricane and make it way toward the Florida panhandle. We expect that we may need to start "moving" on our preparedness plan over the weekend.
A few questions:
How quickly could this storm become a hurricane?
What is the likelihood that it will find its way into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane?

[SunnyThoughts]

I discovered this site yesterday and am now addicted. It's refreshing to have access to storm information and analysis that isn't super-hyped or sugar-coated. I am grateful for the insights, information, and discussion fellow members provide.
I moved to the Florida panhandle in 2004, five months before Ivan hit. Talk about hurricane initiation! I have not become complacent in the years since Ivan and realize the damage and destruction hurricanes can cause. Thanks to the discussion on this site I will be better educated and prepared when it comes to hurricanes. Now that I have a wife and a 1 year old son, I will be closely monitoring the development of 99l. My wife as I just discussed what our plan would be should 99l become a hurricane and make it way toward the Florida panhandle. We expect that we may need to start "moving" on our preparedness plan over the weekend.
A few questions:
How quickly could this storm become a hurricane?
What is the likelihood that it will find its way into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane?

Welcome to the forum...I'm located in Santa Rosa County, between Pensacola and MIlton. Nice to meet ya neighbor Keep your eye out for Wxman57 He is a met that usually gets it right here on the board. Last I saw he said its very possible that this system makes hurricane status before crossing the peninsula of Fla...and could possibly be a major hurricane in the Gulf.

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS through 30 hours showing increased vorticity over the 18z.

[fci]

I'm a long time resident and don't sign on to the complacency consensus that I'm reading here.
I don't know what people expect the general public to do right now when we are talking about an Invest.
4-5 days away IF it comes here.
Should it get named and models continue to show it coming here, the media will do its job and people will react. Home Depot and Lowes will be packed and people will do what they need to be ready.
Folks, please try to curb your criticism of the media when there are tropical threats.
People love to trash the "hype" at the same time others complain that no enough attention is being paid.
The media does their job generally speaking down here when there is a threat.

[SolarBear73]

I discovered this site yesterday and am now addicted. It's refreshing to have access to storm information and analysis that isn't super-hyped or sugar-coated. I am grateful for the insights, information, and discussion fellow members provide.
I moved to the Florida panhandle in 2004, five months before Ivan hit. Talk about hurricane initiation! I have not become complacent in the years since Ivan and realize the damage and destruction hurricanes can cause. Thanks to the discussion on this site I will be better educated and prepared when it comes to hurricanes. Now that I have a wife and a 1 year old son, I will be closely monitoring the development of 99l. My wife as I just discussed what our plan would be should 99l become a hurricane and make it way toward the Florida panhandle. We expect that we may need to start "moving" on our preparedness plan over the weekend.
A few questions:
How quickly could this storm become a hurricane?
What is the likelihood that it will find its way into the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane?

Welcome to the forum...I'm located in Santa Rosa County, between Pensacola and MIlton. Nice to meet ya neighbor Keep your eye out for Wxman57 He is a met that usually gets it right here on the board. Last I saw he said its very possible that this system makes hurricane status before crossing the peninsula of Fla...and could possibly be a major hurricane in the Gulf.

Thanks for the recommendation. I previously lived in Santa Rosa Beach (between Destin and Panama City). A year ago, we moved to the north side of Choctawhatchee Bay near Niceville

[NDG]

COC appears to be near Guadeloupe, 0z GFS initialized well.

[Aric Dunn]

looking at radar and relative ( with sat) storm motion the weak but present llc is approaching Guadeloupe and since its getting pretty close to the radar site its not to far from the surface... As it all approaches it will become more clear.

[CrazyC83]

COC appears to be near Guadeloupe, 0z GFS initialized well.

Looking at the large number of red barbs, maybe 35 kt right now? Meaning as soon as it closes off it will be Hermine right away?

[SouthFLTropics]

Is it just me or does it seem that between 54 to 72 hours on the GFS this thing has slowed down to a crawl.

[Gustywind]

Isolated lightnings, thunder is rumbling too but not too loudly since the last hour. Light showers are falling without any wind.

Gustywind

[ScottNAtlanta]

Basse-Terre Guadeloupe is reporting winds out of WSW

https://weather.com/weather/today/l/GPXX0006:1:GP

[Hurricaneman]

Here's my thinking, if this gets stronger it may landfall a little farther north in the peninsula but with that ridge it most likely even if stronger than modeled will head towards the central GOM maybe even a WSW motion at some point after Florida

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[Gustywind]

99L recap. Interresting to note the increasing numbers 1.5/1.5 and the big shift to the South of the previous position more north (17 N). 99L is moving towards Guadeloupe at the same latitude now.

North Atlantic Ocean Basin: Imagery
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
23/2345 UTC 15.9N 58.1W T1.5/1.5 99L
23/1745 UTC 17.1N 58.1W TOO WEAK 99L
23/1145 UTC 16.8N 56.5W T1.0/1.0 99L

[Hurricaneman]

Basse-Terre Guadeloupe is reporting winds out of WSW

https://weather.com/weather/today/l/GPXX0006:1:GP

this is an interesting observation, looks like its a tropical storm according to both ASCAT and the clearly closed circulation based on the observations in Guadeloupe

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[Aric Dunn]

pretty clear to see the still weak circ and its motion. but at least its something to follow.