ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
108 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF...
CHATHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...
LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...
BRYAN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 145 PM EDT

* AT 107 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR I-16/I-95 INTERCHANGE...MOVING SOUTHWEST
AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

[Pughetime12]

An ULL Trough is digging in fast to Matthew's NE at about 32N 60W.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_ATL/atlanimwv.html

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+24

Not sure if this was forecast or not.
It is defintely aiding ventilation.
Outflow has improved all morning.

Would that steer it any direction or change its path?

[northjaxpro]

Matthew still moving NNW. Western eyewall touching Cescent Beach and Palm Coast.

St Augustine Beach pier reported gusts to 75 mph.

Crescent Beach reported gusts to 65 mph.

The eye of Matthew is currently only 55 miles SE of Jacksonville Beach.

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/TWCAlexWilson/status/784403399924183040

Wow.
That's why we boarded up down here because with a Hurricane Warning you just don't take chances. We missed that kind of damage because we were lucky down here but we're ready at least if it did get bad

I'm sure those high rise buildings in Daytona Beach experience those 100+ mph winds estimated by radar just above the surface.

[Steve]

Matthew still moving NNW. Western eyewall touching Cescent Beach and Palm Coast.

St Augustine Beach pier reported gusts to 75 mph.

Crescent Beach reported gusts to 65 mph.

The eye of Matthew is currently only 55 miles SE of Jacksonville Beach.

Yeah. It looks like the inner eyewall is rotating SW just over Palm Coast/Flagler Beach. That's probably some of the roughest weather there is with this system. I know it nicked Daytona a bit, but this is closer in to the center. I'm guessing the waters have to be seeing gusts into the 90's with sustained probably 60-70 at the coastline as this gets established. It also looks to be wrapping tighter if not necessarily intensifying.

[NDG]

Meanwhile here in Seminole County, amazing that our strongest winds has been as the storm is moving further away from us, its winds span must be expanding since this morning.

 https://twitter.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/784440842396262401

[NYR__1994]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
108 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF...
CHATHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...
LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...
BRYAN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 145 PM EDT

* AT 107 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR I-16/I-95 INTERCHANGE...MOVING SOUTHWEST
AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

I live in that exact area where it spun up. Before I left I set up the baby monitor camera looking outside into the back yard (that is where the storm surge will come from as there is a tidal creek/canal). I have been checking the camera periodically, but when I got the text about the tornado warning I was watching intently. The wind had definitely picked up from what it had been, btu no damage that I can see from the camera, and obviously there is still power....

[stephen23]

Front that is digging through Texas is pretty strong. Yesterday high was 91. Right now as of 12:30pm Ct it is 58

[GCANE]

An ULL Trough is digging in fast to Matthew's NE at about 32N 60W.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_ATL/atlanimwv.html

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+24

Not sure if this was forecast or not.
It is defintely aiding ventilation.
Outflow has improved all morning.

Would that steer it any direction or change its path?

Looks like there is a steering high at about 32N 70W.
So it should erode that some and possibly get it to go a little more east, not entirely sure though.
Big thing though is this could keep Matthew from weakening as fast as forecasted.

[swampgator92]

Reports of sections of St. Augustine underwater as the surge is coming in now. Very bad situation developing.

 https://twitter.com/B911Weather/status/784443266146131969

[terstorm1012]

I think the ULL to its NE that GCANE pointed out is giving it some ventilation, helping it maintain some strength.

[sweetpea]

Matthew still moving NNW. Western eyewall touching Cescent Beach and Palm Coast.

St Augustine Beach pier reported gusts to 75 mph.

Crescent Beach reported gusts to 65 mph.

The eye of Matthew is currently only 55 miles SE of Jacksonville Beach.

Yeah. It looks like the inner eyewall is rotating SW just over Palm Coast/Flagler Beach. That's probably some of the roughest weather there is with this system. I know it nicked Daytona a bit, but this is closer in to the center. I'm guessing the waters have to be seeing gusts into the 90's with sustained probably 60-70 at the coastline as this gets established. It also looks to be wrapping tighter if not necessarily intensifying.

Family and friends in Palm Coast are telling me the wind is howling and it is pouring. Also the water has breached the sea walls in the salt water canals in Palm Coast. Docks are under water.

[fci]

Looks like storm has begun to change directions, Florida got very lucky had this moved a little further west parts of the coast would have experienced hurricane force winds.

"Lucky"? Tell that the folks in St. Augustine right now. And parts of the Florida East Coast HAVE experienced hurricane force winds. Stop with these kinds of posts!

With all due respect to you, especially doing a great job as have ALL the Mods; this was a Category 4 Hurricane that had it come ashore; could have caused catastrophic damage.
So, respectfully, as a Florida Resident; I have to agree that we got lucky as this could have flattened cities and killed scores of people.

[Rail Dawg]

I am sitting on top of the Hammond Dunes bridge over the Intracoastal Waterway.

Stopping because I don't want to be on A1A ahead of the eyewall and have surge trap me.

Very strong N gusts.

Easily topping 100 mph this high in the air.

Truck being buffeted but am next to cement rail preventing wind from getting underneath and lifting.

Once eye passes I'll head north on A1A.

[Rail Dawg]

Note:

It is VERY HARD to go #1 when wind is excess of 100mph.

[seahawkjd]

From the Hurricane Watch statement out of Morehead City / Newport NC:

FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
- PEAK RAINFALL AMOUNTS: ADDITIONAL 6-10 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS

- CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: EXTREME
- EMERGENCY PLANS SHOULD INCLUDE A REASONABLE THREAT OF
EXTREME FLOODING WHERE PEAK RAINFALL TOTALS VASTLY EXCEED
AMOUNTS CONDUCIVE FOR FLASH FLOODING AND RAPID INUNDATION.
RESCUES AND EMERGENCY EVACUATIONS ARE VERY LIKELY.
- TO BE SAFE, AGGRESSIVELY PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
DEVASTATING TO CATASTROPHIC FLOODING RAIN IMPACTS.
- LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. FAILURE TO TAKE
ACTION MAY RESULT IN SERIOUS INJURY, SIGNIFICANT LOSS OF
LIFE, OR HUMAN SUFFERING. IF FLOOD RELATED WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ARE ISSUED, HEED RECOMMENDED ACTIONS. POOR
DECISIONS MAY RESULT IN BEING CUT OFF OR NEEDLESSLY RISK
LIVES. IF VULNERABLE, RELOCATE TO SAFE SHELTER ON HIGHER
GROUND BEFORE FLOOD WATERS ARRIVE.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: DEVASTATING TO CATASTROPHIC
- EXTREME RAINFALL FLOODING MAY PROMPT NUMEROUS EVACUATIONS
AND RESCUES.
- RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES MAY OVERWHELMINGLY OVERFLOW THEIR
BANKS IN MANY PLACES WITH DEEP MOVING WATER. SMALL STREAMS,
CREEKS, CANALS, AND DITCHES MAY BECOME RAGING RIVERS. IN
MOUNTAIN AREAS, DEADLY RUNOFF MAY RAGE DOWN VALLEYS WHILE
INCREASING SUSCEPTIBILITY TO ROCKSLIDES AND MUDSLIDES.
FLOOD CONTROL SYSTEMS AND BARRIERS MAY BECOME STRESSED.
- FLOOD WATERS CAN ENTER NUMEROUS STRUCTURES WITHIN MULTIPLE
COMMUNITIES, SOME STRUCTURES BECOMING UNINHABITABLE OR
WASHED AWAY. NUMEROUS PLACES WHERE FLOOD WATERS MAY COVER
ESCAPE ROUTES. STREETS AND PARKING LOTS BECOME RIVERS OF
RAGING WATER WITH UNDERPASSES SUBMERGED. DRIVING CONDITIONS
BECOME VERY DANGEROUS. NUMEROUS ROAD AND BRIDGE CLOSURES
WITH SOME WEAKENED OR WASHED OUT.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Looks like storm has begun to change directions, Florida got very lucky had this moved a little further west parts of the coast would have experienced hurricane force winds.

"Lucky"? Tell that the folks in St. Augustine right now. And parts of the Florida East Coast HAVE experienced hurricane force winds. Stop with these kinds of posts!

With all due respect to you, especially doing a great job as have ALL the Mods; this was a Category 4 Hurricane that had it come ashore; could have caused catastrophic damage.
So, respectfully, as a Florida Resident; I have to agree that we got lucky as this could have flattened cities and killed scores of people.

Checking in fromy Stuart here. 12-2am was worst here. He came so close to ruining our day bigtime . A matter of 20 miles had the eyewall on shore here. As for St Aug ...There is a lot of history being washed away today...

[Pughetime12]

An ULL Trough is digging in fast to Matthew's NE at about 32N 60W.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_ATL/atlanimwv.html

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+24

Not sure if this was forecast or not.
It is defintely aiding ventilation.
Outflow has improved all morning.

Would that steer it any direction or change its path?

Looks like there is a steering high at about 32N 70W.
So it should erode that some and possibly get it to go a little more east, not entirely sure though.
Big thing though is this could keep Matthew from weakening as fast as forecasted.

I'm in a suburb of Charleston County, outside of a flood zone and about 20 miles from the coast. Worried about my 15 year old roof the most. While more intensity is not wanted, if the trough pushed it more off of the coast, that might be a better situation for us.

[northjaxpro]

From East Arlington area of Jacksonville, Florida, still have power as of this post's time. Just checking in before very likely power outage..prayers to all.. still not even that bad but it will get worse this evening and overnight..hope the damages are least bad..for all...poor Haiti Will check back in when possible...

Hey. Thanks JaxFlDude. My lights flickered, but they have stayed on to this point.

Sustained winds are now at around 50 mph with gusts up to near 60 currently at my home. The worst still to come through as the eyewall is off Palm Coast currently.

[Rail Dawg]

Could someone post animated radar?