ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[CrazyC83]

I think the turn point is key:

* East of 70 - focuses on Puerto Rico, either out to sea or Atlantic Canada beyond that (threat to Bermuda though)

* 70 to 72 - focuses on the Dominican Republic, west of Bermuda, possible New England threat depending on timing

* 72 to 74 - focuses on Haiti (worst case) and easternmost Bahamas, likely New England threat

* 74 to 78 - focuses on eastern Cuba, Jamaica and most of the Bahamas, likely mid-Atlantic or Carolina threat

* 78 to 83 - focuses on western and central Cuba and the Florida peninsula

* 83 to 87 - likely landfall in Honduras or Nicaragua, then may threaten westernmost Cuba and the NE Gulf Coast if it survives

* West of 87 - needs to stay farther north to survive since it would make landfall and go deep into Central America (even emerge in the EPAC?), but if farther north, a threat to the central Gulf Coast

[Frank2]

Still too soon for a good model run - we shall see...

[pcolaman]

I still think this storm goes further west than the GEF is saying. I remember model run of Ivan trying to turn this north too soon. We all remember what happen with Ivan.

[northjaxpro]

I have not have not posted muchduring the evolution of 97L or likely future Matthew. I like the rest you are following very closely.

It is just too far out today make projections on where this cyclone will be out 8-10 days from now. There are so many variables in play for so many people. I really pray people are monitoring the situation and getting prepared down in the Caribbean region. I am very, very concerned all down there, especially Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cayman Islands and Cuba.

I will only say this for now in that if this tropical cyclone finds a way to trek south of Hispaniola and past 75 degrees Longitude down the road, for me , it could make for the worst case possible scenario across the Caribbean.

If the cyclone.makes it past 75 degrees.before making a poleward move, then again we watch for possible U.S. impacts during the start of next week. Very anxious days ahead for sure tracking this potential poeerful cyclone.

Well, not wishing this on anyone but earily seeming like Hurricane' David's nasty brother (who happens to live a few blocks WEST), may come a 'knocking. Jax, I think there's a pretty fair chance that -"this bud's for you" So much here will likely be dependant on this system's rate of organization and deepening. Whether or not 97L will truly track as far south as the EURO and UK would suggest might go a long way toward pushing the worst threat to the west of Haiti. Scary to consider the RI potential beyond that point though.

Well, chaser 1 I am doing my best not to think that far out yet. So much can happen, but I admit to you that David'79 type scenario is among several possibilities with this cyclone. Just monitoring the situation carefully like all of you, just not willing to stick my neck out there like some of you. which are guessing where the system may be within the next 10 days.

[blp]

One big difference I keep seeing on the GFS is the development of a large low around 60W it serves to weaken the Bermuda High considerably and thus allows for the GFS to be faster and more progressive in the recurve. I see it early on the Euro but it quckly weakens it and by 144hrs and is no longer a factor. This to me is a key difference in the models by 144hr. The CMC also weakens the feature which leads me to lean toward the Euro.

The pattern off the East Coast looks similar.

06z GFS


00z Euro

[GCANE]

Cutoff low over the Mid-West appears to be weaker on the latest (06Z) GFS run IMHO.

[blp]

Cutoff low over the Mid-West appears to be weaker on the latest (06Z) GFS run IMHO.

Yes that is true, but can that minor change have such a great impact to weaken that high. I think the Low to the East has to be playing a larger role in weakening that High.

[gatorcane]

FIM-9 which uses NCEP data that the GFS uses has also shifted west as of 00Z:

[gatorcane]

I just noticed the NASA 00Z model run goes all the way out to 240 hours not the usual 120 hours...and it shows something very similar to the Euro with a W bend at the end at 240 hours (farther south than the Euro)

Full loop is here: http://portal.nccs.nasa.gov/cgi-fp/fp_w ... 00&&loop=0

[KWT]

This is quite typical of the models, they will have an initial idea, deviate from it and then eventually land back onto a very similar pattern they originally had.

Anyway ECM ensembles quite telling of where the range of the track, BUT still big differences in track from 36-72hrs with regards to that bend to the WSW and whether or not it happens. May make a difference as to how far west this ends up going.

[PTrackerLA]

TIme differences in the models are huge and give me very little confidence in any particular solution as of now. However, it seems a slower system could be a bigger threat to the Gulf and Florida so something to monitor the next few days.

[GCANE]

Cutoff low over the Mid-West appears to be weaker on the latest (06Z) GFS run IMHO.

Yes that is true, but can that minor change have such a great impact to weaken that high. I think the Low to the East has to be playing a larger role in weakening that High.

I think the idea is it creates more a trough that dives south and blocks the western progression of 97L.
As the Cutoff Low then moves NE, it creates a favorable PV condition ahead of the trough where 97L's vort can move into.
The weaker the Cutoff Low, the weaker the blocking and sweeping action.

[chaser1]

I have not have not posted muchduring the evolution of 97L or likely future Matthew. I like the rest you are following very closely.

It is just too far out today make projections on where this cyclone will be out 8-10 days from now. There are so many variables in play for so many people. I really pray people are monitoring the situation and getting prepared down in the Caribbean region. I am very, very concerned all down there, especially Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cayman Islands and Cuba.

I will only say this for now in that if this tropical cyclone finds a way to trek south of Hispaniola and past 75 degrees Longitude down the road, for me , it could make for the worst case possible scenario across the Caribbean.

If the cyclone.makes it past 75 degrees.before making a poleward move, then again we watch for possible U.S. impacts during the start of next week. Very anxious days ahead for sure tracking this potential poeerful cyclone.

Well, not wishing this on anyone but earily seeming like Hurricane' David's nasty brother (who happens to live a few blocks WEST), may come a 'knocking. Jax, I think there's a pretty fair chance that -"this bud's for you" So much here will likely be dependant on this system's rate of organization and deepening. Whether or not 97L will truly track as far south as the EURO and UK would suggest might go a long way toward pushing the worst threat to the west of Haiti. Scary to consider the RI potential beyond that point though.

Well, chaser 1 I am doing my best not to think that far out yet. So much can happen, but I admit to you that David'79 type scenario is among several possibilities with this cyclone. Just monitoring the situation carefully like all of you, just not willing to stick my neck out there like some of you. which are guessing where the system may be within the next 10 days.

Aw c'mon now? Simply due to the fact that there's still a greater than 90 degree arc of potential track deviation from this point Yeah, I've felt the same up to late yesterday but much of that was a result of needing to get a better feel for any significant or evolving CONUS long wave changes for the near to mid term. Granted, we don't know whether any future Matthew might still be in the Caribbean 6 days out, or even 10 days out. Heck, given this year's model performance as well as issues with dry sinking air and upper level shear conditions, I wasn't even willing to concede that 97L would definitely develop into a named storm. At this point though, it seems pretty reasonable to assume that a T.S. (but likely a hurricane) will threaten some point between the D.R. and Jamaica/Cuba. I agree though, so much has yet to evolve that there's plenty of outlier possibilities regarding track and intensity that still remain. Lets hope for those in the Caribbean than 97L will underperform as most other storms this year have. At the same time though I have to concede that i've jumped on this bandwagon thinking that this storm might be "that" memorable storm of 2016.

[Bocadude85]

Even the 12Z NAM has a WSW track, similar to the Euro & UKMET

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2016092712&fh=3

[Steve]

GFS 06z as discussed by others has that hard north turn between 70/75W and almost goes due north. Early Cycle 12z guidance doesn't go far enough out, but is that starting to smooth a little based on the ends of the late cycle 06z runs? 120 hours (5 days) is Sunday and is kind of the important day for a turn if you look at the GFS.

12z Early Cycle
https://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/rea ... _early.png

06z Late Cycle
https://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/rea ... k_late.png

[SouthFLTropics]

12z GFS is running...Let's see what happens.

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS weaker through 36 hours and shortwave is more NW towards Indiana.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS... Much weaker through 54 hours... Just N of W Movement...

[Alyono]

12z GFS... Much weaker through 54 hours... Just N of W Movement...

it's a whole 2 mb weaker through 54 hours

[Blown Away]

12z GFS... Much weaker through 54 hours... Just N of W Movement...

it's a whole 2 mb weaker through 54 hours

I meant compared to 06z, 00z, 18z...