ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SeGaBob]

It seems to have developed a tight convective ball...does that mean strengthening?

[Ntxw]

It seems to have a developed a tight convective ball...does that mean strengthening?

It has an irregular CDO at the moment is what you are seeing. The MLC and LLC are not fully stacked yet. But as soon as they do, we'll likely have a rapidly intensifying Matthew.

[Aric Dunn]

well 1001mb.. still a 4 mb drop that hour.. appears to be deepening steadily.

[bg1]

pressure is going to be below 1000mb this pass pressure already 1003 mb with 43 kt winds.. 998 seems reasonable.

The pressure so far is higher than I'd expect for a large 55 kt storm.

[Alyono]

there is not yet a CDO as it is not a central dense overcast. The ircraft just found the circulation to be near 14 and 63.6. Not quite but close to being exposed.

The aircraft also indicated that the pressure has fallen a bit, so this is gradually organizing

[Alyono]

pressure is going to be below 1000mb this pass pressure already 1003 mb with 43 kt winds.. 998 seems reasonable.

The pressure so far is higher than I'd expect for a large 55 kt storm.

it's tapping into the 700mb SAL jet. This setup with high pressures and high wind is quite common, though it usually happens in July and the first half of August

[Hurricaneman]

Its actually on the SW side of the convection and the convection seems to be spreading towards it which is a sign that the shear may be relaxing and another thing I'm noticing is that usually its the pressure drops and the winds respond well this is a case where the pressure is catching up to the winds

[stormreader]

Core looking better all the time.

[1900hurricane]

Microwave still shows the center on the west side of the convection, which is backed up by the recon data.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Pressure down to 1002 mb, per recon.

[Hammy]

Microwave still shows the center on the west side of the convection, which is backed up by the recon data.

http://i.imgur.com/SMIfnVe.jpg

This is why I'm thinking this isn't going to strengthen much more. The forecasts simply don't seem to see the shear this year for some reason.

[HurricaneFrances04]

White center is approximate area of last recon VDM (center fix). Might actually be a little west of that.

[HurricaneRyan]

Unlike the other storms though there isn't a naked swirl and we can't see any visible nakedness on the infrared. This is the healthiest looking TS we have seen this year which is why it's forecasted to strengthen.

Though I still don't fully trust the models after Hermine never redeveloped and Karl never became a hurricane.

[SeGaBob]

This is why I'm thinking this isn't going to strengthen much more. The forecasts simply don't seem to see the shear this year for some reason.

You'll bust on that.

[kungfut]

I think this thing is now moving N-NW. I see what I see.

[1900hurricane]

Unlike the other storms though there isn't a naked swirl and we can't see any visible nakedness on the infrared. This is the healthiest looking TS we have seen this year which is why it's forecasted to strengthen.

Though I still don't fully trust the models after Hermine never redeveloped and Karl never became a hurricane.

The subtropics and north are generally more hostile to tropical cyclones. More shear, dry air, subsidence, etc. exists in more varied conditions outside the true tropics, and guidance isn't always the best at interacting a tropical cyclone with these various conditions as far as intensity goes. A general rule of thumb is to be very wary of particularly intense solutions north of 20*N.

[hurricaneCW]

I think this thing is now moving N-NW. I see what I see.

Recon confirmed LLC is moving due west, the system is disjointed with some shear over it making it appear to move NW.

[Medtronic15]

Well, maybe is now moving NNW?

[hurricaneCW]

Microwave still shows the center on the west side of the convection, which is backed up by the recon data.

http://i.imgur.com/SMIfnVe.jpg

This is why I'm thinking this isn't going to strengthen much more. The forecasts simply don't seem to see the shear this year for some reason.

Are you trolling? Every major model shows a strong hurricane once it gets further west and when it begins the turn. Eastern Caribbean is not the most favorable location for strengthening though he's still trying to.

[chaser1]

As of the 11 pm update on wesh 2 they said the spaghetti models are closer to Florida than they were earlier in the day. It's all going to depend on the cold front coming on Sunday. If it sticks it will push Matthew to the north.

Here, have some seconds of that spaghetti (This, from the Miami National Weather Service a few hours ago):

(Area Forecast Discussion)

Long Term (Friday night through Wednesday)...models remain in
fair agreement in lifting the aforementioned trough axis out of
the region with high pressure building in its wake during the
upcoming weekend. Earlier model runs were depicting a cold front
boundary moving across the northern half of the Peninsula and
settling over Central Florida for the Friday night-Saturday
timeframe. But latest runs basically dissipate the boundary near
the Florida panhandle with no significant impacts to our local
weather. Stronger easterly flow is expected to establish across
the area