ATL: HERMINE - Models

[TheStormExpert]

Upper level environment is perfect yet nothing happening?

[Caneman12]

I think the GFS is finally caving to a more westward path IMO

[Bocadude85]

Definitely a windshield wiper effect going on here...makes one wonder if we will actually see development or not...

[PTrackerLA]

Out to 162hrs, still no sign of the 850mb vort becoming stronger

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS seems to be trending weaker every run while the Euro seems to be trending stronger, which way to go nobody knows but the current pattern seems closer to the Euro

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[SouthFLTropics]

Upper level environment is perfect yet nothing happening?

Yes, not sure why it doesn't pop...hour 162 headed WNW through Bahamas. Let's hope whatever the GFS is seeing that is keeping a lid on this comes true.

[TheStormExpert]

Upper level environment is perfect yet nothing happening?

Yes, not sure why it doesn't pop...hour 162 headed WNW through Bahamas. Let's hope whatever the GFS is seeing that is keeping a lid on this comes true.

Found the problem!

[AtlanticWind]

Hard to believe a system over the Gulf stream in late August with even just decent conditions would not become at least
a tropical storm.

[Hurricaneman]

Upper level environment is perfect yet nothing happening?

Yes, not sure why it doesn't pop...hour 162 headed WNW through Bahamas. Let's hope whatever the GFS is seeing that is keeping a lid on this comes true.

seems as though the GFS indeed doesn't develop even in the face of favorable conditions, based on this I think the Euro looks more sensible but maybe the GFS is seeing something we're not

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[N2FSU]

+180hr

[WeatherEmperor]

LoL.....

Bet the Euro weakens it too later tonight

[Steve]

Upper level environment is perfect yet nothing happening?

Yes, not sure why it doesn't pop...hour 162 headed WNW through Bahamas. Let's hope whatever the GFS is seeing that is keeping a lid on this comes true.

Energy is elsewhere at that particular time in that run. I think it's irrelevant longer term but 90l is massive and nearby as is Fiona. 99 is a shadow at that point.

[hurrtracker79]

I wouldn't focus on intensity at this point.

[TheStormExpert]

Hard to believe a system over the Gulf stream in late August with even just decent conditions would not become at least
a tropical storm.

I know, either there's something wrong with the GFS or something wrong with the Atlantic.

[hurrtracker79]

As far as track and the high-pressure Ridge to the north, the GFS has trended towards the European model. The ridge to the north is much stronger than the previous few runs. Intensity is something we will have to figure out later as we get closer in time. We know how volatile global models can be with tropical cyclone intensity.

[TheStormExpert]

Hr.192 R.I.P. 99L

[SouthFLTropics]

I wouldn't focus on intensity at this point.

Agreed...intensity as we all know is difficult to predict. The trend of a large ridge in place at the 5-8 day range is what's more concerning at this point.

[centuryv58]

Hard to believe a system over the Gulf stream in late August with even just decent conditions would not become at least
a tropical storm.

I know, either there's something wrong with the GFS or something wrong with the Atlantic.

My vote is model confusion at this point.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Upper level environment is perfect yet nothing happening?

Yes, not sure why it doesn't pop...hour 162 headed WNW through Bahamas. Let's hope whatever the GFS is seeing that is keeping a lid on this comes true.

Found the problem!

Just my opinion but with its moisture envelope I doubt that small amount would matter. We shall see though. Conditions look good to me.

[N2FSU]

As far as track and the high-pressure Ridge to the north, the GFS has trended towards the European model. The ridge to the north is much stronger than the previous few runs. Intensity is something we will have to figure out later as we get closer in time. We know how volatile global models can be with tropical cyclone intensity.

Yeh what I take from this is, the GFS is trending towards the Euro in building a strong blocking ridge north of whatever 99L becomes in about a week.

"The trend is your friend."