ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hammy]

Microwave still shows the center on the west side of the convection, which is backed up by the recon data.

http://i.imgur.com/SMIfnVe.jpg

This is why I'm thinking this isn't going to strengthen much more. The forecasts simply don't seem to see the shear this year for some reason.

Are you trolling? Every major model shows a strong hurricane once it gets further west and when it begins the turn. Eastern Caribbean is not the most favorable location for strengthening though he's still trying to.

Every major model showed Erika as a major hurricane too. At one point, every model showed Hermine as a major hurricane. And Karl. The models have done absolutely -awful- with the shear forecasts this year.

Every major model indicated Matthew would not be dealing with the shear it is currently dealing with.

I don't know why everyone here is discounting without consideration the possibility that they are wrong here when the real time conditions are worse than what the models are showing, and if you have bad data in the models, you are guaranteed to have a bad forecast.

And if you're going to toss trolling accusations, don't forget I was right on Erika last year as well as Karl--not a chance it would become a hurricane and it didn't.

[fci]

well wsw is the opposite of what all the models are doing.. thats interesting.

Aric; I thought that the Euro was predicting a WSW dip thus the concern for the Northern Coast of SA and the ABC Islands and the TS Watch for the ABC's.

[CourierPR]

As of the 11 pm update on wesh 2 they said the spaghetti models are closer to Florida than they were earlier in the day. It's all going to depend on the cold front coming on Sunday. If it sticks it will push Matthew to the north.

Here, have some seconds of that spaghetti (This, from the Miami National Weather Service a few hours ago):

(Area Forecast Discussion)

Long Term (Friday night through Wednesday)...models remain in
fair agreement in lifting the aforementioned trough axis out of
the region with high pressure building in its wake during the
upcoming weekend. Earlier model runs were depicting a cold front
boundary moving across the northern half of the Peninsula and
settling over Central Florida for the Friday night-Saturday
timeframe. But latest runs basically dissipate the boundary near
the Florida panhandle with no significant impacts to our local
weather. Stronger easterly flow is expected to establish across
the area

Do you think this will influence future model runs?

[wxmann_91]

This is why I'm thinking this isn't going to strengthen much more. The forecasts simply don't seem to see the shear this year for some reason.

Are you trolling? Every major model shows a strong hurricane once it gets further west and when it begins the turn. Eastern Caribbean is not the most favorable location for strengthening though he's still trying to.

Every major model showed Erika as a major hurricane too. At one point, every model showed Hermine as a major hurricane. And Karl. The models have done absolutely -awful- with the shear forecasts this year.

Every major model indicated Matthew would not be dealing with the shear it is currently dealing with.

I don't know why everyone here is discounting without consideration the possibility that they are wrong here when the real time conditions are worse than what the models are showing, and if you have bad data in the models, you are guaranteed to have a bad forecast.

And if you're going to toss trolling accusations, don't forget I was right on Erika last year as well as Karl--not a chance it would become a hurricane and it didn't.

Re-read the NHC discussions on Erika. Euro and GFS (especially the latter) were fairly consistent on Erika dissipating.

GFS never showed Hermine as a major...

[Hammy]

Re-read the NHC discussions on Erika. Euro and GFS (especially the latter) were fairly consistent on Erika dissipating.

GFS never showed Hermine as a major...

GFS was the first one to show it as such, and to show development east of Florida as a strong hurricane (this didn't happen) and I was here during Erika last year, predicting dissipation while it was still east of PR, well before the models did and well before NHC did, while being called out by some of the pro-mets here as making outrageous guesses.

Matthew is not in favorable conditions, and the models are always quick to show conditions changing when they don't.

[fci]

Really?
Arguments on who was right and wrong and who predicted what on this storm and that storm?
We are all guessing here.
None of us are genius', have a fool-proof crystal ball or tell Mother Nature what to do.
The Pro Mets are the closest we get to predicting correctly and that is because they use SCIENCE to make their calls!
It's not a game of who made the best guesses.
And yes, they are guesses.
Come on folks........

[Hammy]

Really?
Arguments on who was right and wrong and who predicted what on this storm and that storm?
We are all guessing here.
None of us are genius', have a fool-proof crystal ball or tell Mother Nature what to do.
The Pro Mets are the closest we get to predicting correctly and that is because they use SCIENCE to make their calls!
It's not a game of who made the best guesses.
And yes, they are guesses.
Come on folks........

I do have the right to back myself up if I'm going to be outright accused of trolling for making a valid assessment of the situation.

[chaser1]

This is why I'm thinking this isn't going to strengthen much more. The forecasts simply don't seem to see the shear this year for some reason.

Are you trolling? Every major model shows a strong hurricane once it gets further west and when it begins the turn. Eastern Caribbean is not the most favorable location for strengthening though he's still trying to.

Every major model showed Erika as a major hurricane too. At one point, every model showed Hermine as a major hurricane. And Karl. The models have done absolutely -awful- with the shear forecasts this year.

Every major model indicated Matthew would not be dealing with the shear it is currently dealing with.

I don't know why everyone here is discounting without consideration the possibility that they are wrong here when the real time conditions are worse than what the models are showing, and if you have bad data in the models, you are guaranteed to have a bad forecast.

And if you're going to toss trolling accusations, don't forget I was right on Erika last year as well as Karl--not a chance it would become a hurricane and it didn't.

Hammy, though I anticipate Matthew developing into a major hurricane by the time it approaches 75W, I agree 100% with your analysis of the difficulty that the models have had forecasting intensity this year. Just one more possible fly in the ointment as this might impact future track as well.

[Aric Dunn]

well wsw is the opposite of what all the models are doing.. thats interesting.

Aric; I thought that the Euro was predicting a WSW dip thus the concern for the Northern Coast of SA and the ABC Islands and the TS Watch for the ABC's.

yeah a couple days ago. not at the moment. which was my point. some of the older runs may have had it right. now there is little to no wsw to sw motion from the models after days of all the models showing some kind of that motion.

[wxmann_91]

Not saying the models are going to be correct or incorrect with a major hurricane in the Caribbean... but they have been predicting very strong background easterly flow in the low-levels, and a broad low signature at 850mb with Matthew. Those should have long clued in that it was going to struggle a bit until it slowed down and the low-level flow weakened at the western end of the ridge (in the central Caribbean).

[Bocadude85]

well wsw is the opposite of what all the models are doing.. thats interesting.

Aric; I thought that the Euro was predicting a WSW dip thus the concern for the Northern Coast of SA and the ABC Islands and the TS Watch for the ABC's.

yeah a couple days ago. not at the moment. which was my point. some of the older runs may have had it right. now there is little to no wsw to sw motion from the models after days of all the models showing some kind of that motion.

0Z Euro running now and it shows a decent SW dive

[Hammy]

Aric; I thought that the Euro was predicting a WSW dip thus the concern for the Northern Coast of SA and the ABC Islands and the TS Watch for the ABC's.

yeah a couple days ago. not at the moment. which was my point. some of the older runs may have had it right. now there is little to no wsw to sw motion from the models after days of all the models showing some kind of that motion.

0Z Euro running now and it shows a decent SW dive

Terrain-induced to some degree?

[chaser1]

As of the 11 pm update on wesh 2 they said the spaghetti models are closer to Florida than they were earlier in the day. It's all going to depend on the cold front coming on Sunday. If it sticks it will push Matthew to the north.

Here, have some seconds of that spaghetti (This, from the Miami National Weather Service a few hours ago):

(Area Forecast Discussion)

Long Term (Friday night through Wednesday)...models remain in
fair agreement in lifting the aforementioned trough axis out of
the region with high pressure building in its wake during the
upcoming weekend. Earlier model runs were depicting a cold front
boundary moving across the northern half of the Peninsula and
settling over Central Florida for the Friday night-Saturday
timeframe. But latest runs basically dissipate the boundary near
the Florida panhandle with no significant impacts to our local
weather. Stronger easterly flow is expected to establish across
the area

Do you think this will influence future model runs?

I think the above statement is at minimum indicative that a strong ridge remains in place at the surface, and likely less mid level support than originally thought to support this front to drop southward. I also think that dependant on timing that its not unreasonable to consider Matthew to reach some point in the Bahamas and stall, loop, or be shoved in a more westward component. Then again, I'm already conflicted with the projected track beyond 3 days and just dont see the dramatic turn to the north that nearly all models are calling for. That statement by the Miami NWS only further implies the potential ridging that would seem to force a more northwest than due north motion.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric; I thought that the Euro was predicting a WSW dip thus the concern for the Northern Coast of SA and the ABC Islands and the TS Watch for the ABC's.

yeah a couple days ago. not at the moment. which was my point. some of the older runs may have had it right. now there is little to no wsw to sw motion from the models after days of all the models showing some kind of that motion.

0Z Euro running now and it shows a decent SW dive

only major difference is the trough/ low over the ohio valley is a good deal farther north at about 72 hours.. a little more ridging.

[Aric Dunn]

EUro 96 hours sharp right turn like the rest of the models. however more ridging building in .. lets see if it bends back nw like yesterday

[chaser1]

EUro 96 hours sharp right turn like the rest of the models. however more ridging building in .. lets see if it bends back nw like yesterday

Yeah, that's been driving me nuts for the last couple of days. I'm just not seeing the mechanism, or reasonable 500mb anomaly changes to cause such a sharp and distinct poleward turn from that latitude. Advertise a slow NW or even NNW track due to the orientation of the western lobe of that ridge to its north maybe, but I"m not sure that I buy the level of degradation to the ridge north of Matthew. Hence my thought that a more NW motion from day 3 -5 seems more plausible.

[Aric Dunn]

EUro 96 hours sharp right turn like the rest of the models. however more ridging building in .. lets see if it bends back nw like yesterday

Yeah, that's been driving me nuts for the last couple of days. I'm just not seeing the mechanism, or reasonable 500mb anomaly changes to cause such a sharp and distinct poleward turn from that latitude. Advertise a slow NW or even NNW track due to the orientation of the western lobe of that ridge to its north maybe, but I"m not sure that I buy the level of degradation to the ridge north of Matthew. Hence my thought that a more NW motion from day 3 -5 seems more plausible.

Its hard to say. there is no digging trough just a weakening ridge. it even accelerates north with no trough. does seem a little suspect. next 24 hours will help especially once we get the upper air flights going.

[chaser1]

Wait??? A nearly 20mb drop in pressure between 96 hour - 120 hr, and suddenly the 500mb anomaly heights reflect new lobes of falling heights off the N.E. US and in the Gulf exactly during this same time frame? That's just whack

[Aric Dunn]

Wait??? A nearly 20mb drop in pressure between 96 hour - 120 hr, and suddenly the 500mb anomaly heights reflect new lobes of falling heights off the N.E. US and in the Gulf exactly during this same time frame? That's just whack

Just have to wait for the gulfstream flight the next couple days.

[CourierPR]

Wait??? A nearly 20mb drop in pressure between 96 hour - 120 hr, and suddenly the 500mb anomaly heights reflect new lobes of falling heights off the N.E. US and in the Gulf exactly during this same time frame? That's just whack

Now I wonder if this storm is going to do what these models show it doing.