ATL: HERMINE - Models

[AutoPenalti]

There's NO WAY that 90L strips all of the energy from Fiona and 99L. That would probably be insane to think about.

[TheStormExpert]

The 00z Canadian still develops this.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Hard to believe a system over the Gulf stream in late August with even just decent conditions would not become at least
a tropical storm.

I know, either there's something wrong with the GFS or something wrong with the Atlantic.

Models got Joaquin intensity wrong as well.

[WeatherEmperor]

So now that Gfs dropped it, who is brave enough to take bets Euro drops it too? Anyone??

[PTrackerLA]

It's almost as if the ridging to then north becomes too strong for development? That and cat 5 90L must not be enabling 99 to develop at all this run. Clear as mud, that's enough for me tonight!

[TheStormExpert]

So now that Gfs dropped it, who is brave enough to take bets Euro drops it too? Anyone??

Oh! Oh! Oh! me!

[Hurricaneman]

If the Euro trends stronger in the 0Z then we may a model war with all models vs the GFS and thats usually when you discount the GFS

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[hurrtracker79]

In fact, it looks like the ridge on this run is so strong it just squashes whatever's left Of 99L. Time will only tell if this will get its act together and develop around the Bahamas. But what is most concerning is that we now have good agreement of a strong Ridge to its north and we cannot rule out Florida or Gulf Coast impacts long term if development occurs.

[AtlanticWind]

As we watch the GFS come in , 99L continues to look better and better tonight as it fires up.

[Blown Away]

Great conditions, as always, for 90L in the N Atlantic...

[Blown Away]

Remember the Euro was onshore at Daytona at 168 hours... At Hour 222, GFS still has 99L stuck in the SE Bahamas...

[Bocadude85]

So now that Gfs dropped it, who is brave enough to take bets Euro drops it too? Anyone??

I'll take that bet...as much as I have been in favor of 99L developing I'm still not sold we see any development or threat to the SE coast

[Hurricaneman]

Remember the Euro was onshore at Daytona at 168 hours... At Hour 222, GFS still has 99L stuck in the SE Bahamas...

One thing I have to say is the GFS has the tenancy to stall storms past 120hrs so that bias looks to be here with the GFS the last few runs

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[TheStormExpert]

Still in the central Bahamas @ 240hrs.

[SouthFLTropics]

Still in the central Bahamas @ 240hrs.

With a massive ridge overhead? That's bunk right there.

[Blown Away]

00z GFS... Maybe trying to close the low at hour 252... Still in Bahamas...

[Hurricaneman]

Still in the central Bahamas @ 240hrs.

I hate to say this but this run makes no sense

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[hurrtracker79]

So I basically sits in the Bahamas for five or six days, yes I'm throwing this run out and taking the trend.

[Hurricaneman]

Still there at 276, yep a bad run it seems like

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[AtlanticWind]

It is one run,wouldn't over estimate it's importance.