ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[OntarioEggplant]

GFS is bringing the heights down too much over the southeast. It just did this same thing over Texas and was way too aggressive.

[tolakram]

[Blown Away]

12z GFS... 144 hours... Moving N Into SE Bahamas... Cat 3... Getting Stronger... SW of 06z Now...

[OntarioEggplant]

I think the key takeaway here is that the GFS has shifted westwards again, while the Euro remains much more consistent in its modeling.

[chaser1]

Wow? 144 hours and over the Windward passage. Really very little deviation from the 6Z run other than about 2-3 degrees further west, but no more than that.

[PTrackerLA]

I think it's going to be a really close call for North Carolina this run...

[gatorcane]

12Z GEM out through 102 hours - upper steering appears it will end up more west, we shall see...

[CalmBeforeStorm]

I think the key takeaway here is that the GFS has shifted westwards again, while the Euro remains much more consistent in its modeling.

Only a hair further west. Almost an identical run to the 6z at this point.

[KWT]

GFS still up and out, a touch further west though before it does that set-up.

VERY different height evolution compared to the 00z ECM, but it has to be said at least the GFS is being very consistent overall unlike the ECM which is flipping a little.

Hard to know at this early stage who is right, the sheer amount of lower heights over the whole southern part of the US landmass is a little suspect but who knows!

[chaser1]

I think the key takeaway here is that the GFS has shifted westwards again, while the Euro remains much more consistent in its modeling.

To be fair, the EURO shifted a similar distance (if not more) than the GFS has shifted over its prior 2 runs. While I agree with you that I believe that the EURO was first to begin this westward shift, its not as if the GFS is wildly bouncing all over the place. In fact, I'm quite surprised that the GFS had not shifted a good deal more west than it had.

[tolakram]

[CalmBeforeStorm]

I could see it hitting the east coast a little earlier this run as r
The ridge to its NE extends a little further west then 6 z run, maybe outer banks.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z GFS is about 75 miles WSW of the 6Z run along with slightly higher 500 mb heights to its north. That's worthy of note as regards a modest trend westward.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Looks like a path opening up OTS.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=z500a&runtime=2016092712&fh=168&xpos=0&ypos=200

[OntarioEggplant]

Those heights over the southeast and Florida make absolutely zero sense. Exactly the same thing it did the past week for Texas.

[KWT]

I think the key takeaway here is that the GFS has shifted westwards again, while the Euro remains much more consistent in its modeling.

Only a hair further west. Almost an identical run to the 6z at this point.

Yep they are very similar and indeed the upper pattern is nearly identical as well.

GFS does have a habit of lowering heights too rapidly, but I'm wary that we are near October now and the seasonal transitions can throw any assumptions out the window.

This will recurve right out to sea, the upper flow is to zonal and this will eject NE/ENE eventually.

[Alyono]

Think this MU will be a miss. Trough not as strong as in 6Z,. Not the negative tilt

[ConvergenceZone]

Whether it's a little bit West or a lot West, doesn't matter. A trend is a trend, and this is definitely trending West. Won't be surprised if the model is hitting the East Coast by tomorrow

[Alyono]

UKMET shifts east a bit

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 13.9N 61.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.09.2016 36 13.8N 62.9W 1007 35
1200UTC 29.09.2016 48 13.8N 66.0W 1003 42
0000UTC 30.09.2016 60 13.6N 68.4W 998 51
1200UTC 30.09.2016 72 13.0N 70.5W 989 57
0000UTC 01.10.2016 84 12.7N 72.0W 987 61
1200UTC 01.10.2016 96 12.2N 73.4W 989 56
0000UTC 02.10.2016 108 12.2N 74.6W 995 42
1200UTC 02.10.2016 120 12.8N 75.0W 993 46
0000UTC 03.10.2016 132 14.5N 75.5W 988 52
1200UTC 03.10.2016 144 15.9N 75.7W 980 60

[KWT]

The 12Z GFS is about 75 miles WSW of the 6Z run along with slightly higher 500 mb heights to its north. That's worthy of note as regards a modest trend westward.

Yes, very important because the further WSW it gets, the more time it buys the system to have the exit pathway slammed in its face, just like it does on the 00z ECM.

Anyway regardless of what that run does, what a blow for Haiti and far E.Cuba, probably a 3/4 hurricane smashing right into it...on its own that is noteworthy.