ATL: HERMINE - Models

[Blown Away]

So I basically sits in the Bahamas for five or six days, yes I'm throwing this run out and taking the trend.

Hard to tell if the low is still 99L... It might have been toast much earlier in the run... Whatever happens I don't but a system sitting in Bahamas for 4-6 days...

[Hurricaneman]

Still there at 300hrs

[Hurricaneman]

So I basically sits in the Bahamas for five or six days, yes I'm throwing this run out and taking the trend.

Hard to tell if the low is still 99L... It might have been toast much earlier in the run... Whatever happens I don't but a system sitting in Bahamas for 4-6 days...

nope, its 99L

[TheStormExpert]

It is one run,wouldn't over estimate it's importance.

Why not? The GFS has a horrible tendency to overdo things.(Intensity, Ridges, Troughs, etc.)

[Hurricaneman]

Still there at 336

[AutoPenalti]

Still there at 300hrs

Looks like GFS doesn't like working at midnight.

[TheStormExpert]

Still there at 336

Just barely, but yeah still a little something leftover.

[Hammy]

Just when I give the GFS the benefit of the doubt that there might be an actual trend emerging, it swings from major hurricane to stationary trough over the course of a single run.

[Bocadude85]

I'm going to bed..,let's see if the models show anything tomorrow...this has been a roller coaster ride to say the least.

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS basically sits 99L near the Bahamas for 10 days I think you can discount this run

[Hurricaneman]

Just when I give the GFS the benefit of the doubt that there might be an actual trend emerging, it swings from major hurricane to stationary trough over the course of a single run.

not just a stationary trough, a stationary trough for 10 days

[Steve]

Mindulle is currently spinning in place and Lionrock as well. Seriously. Forward motion slowed down on that side of the world 7/8 days out from here. Watch the IR spin.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/Basin_WestPac.html

[shah83]

Do anyone think the general worldwide complexity of the tropical situation is making the modeling noisy?

[AtlanticWind]

GFS still has 99L in the spot in december

[Siker]

UKMET is pretty similar to its previous run; Fiona is also turning southward before the text output loses it so I think it shows them merging again.

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 26.0N 73.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.08.2016 132 26.3N 74.0W 1009 25
0000UTC 28.08.2016 144 27.6N 74.8W 1008 29

Also shows a 594m ridge over the Southeast like the GFS:

[Hammy]

I guess the takeaway from this could be that there is at least a trend towards the Euro as far as the steering currents--this won't get kicked out to sea after a day or two regardless of what it does like the previous run.

[Siker]

Looks like they're running the HWRF on this again, I guess because it finally has convection.

[Caneman12]

The GFS basically sits 99L near the Bahamas for 10 days I think you can discount this run

This run won't verify i expect this to trend towards the Euro

[Blown Away]

Looks like they're running the HWRF on this again, I guess because it finally has convection.

Can u post your HWRF link?? I lost that link. Thx...

[Siker]

Looks like they're running the HWRF on this again, I guess because it finally has convection.

Can u post your HWRF link?? I lost that link. Thx...

It's on Tropical Tidbits under "Hurricane":

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=486