ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

ULL at about 20N 40W creating the poleward outflow channel.
It is forecast to get closer in the next 48 hrs.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_ATL/atlanimwv.html

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+24

[GCANE]

ULL at about 20N 40W creating the poleward outflow channel.
It is forecast to get closer in the next 48 hrs.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_ATL/atlanimwv.html

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+24

I think it is worth noting that if we see a lot of popup thuderstorms across Florida today and western Cuba this afternoon, it would very likely help to erode the effects of the trough (increase heights) and may make a change in the forecasted track of Matthew.

[jlauderdal]

Remember NHC track error at 5 days is 240 miles and they are damn good at track and getting better each year,,,we are looking at these runs well beyond 5 days..it may well go up through the Bahamas but the error rate is large this far out..hopefully it takes an east route


BigJoeBastardi5 mins
GFS slower and southwest of 23 hours ago in its front 5 days! new run vs 24 hours ago https://t.co/k4fXboiLas

BigJoeBastardi6 mins
GFS a day slower to Cuba from yesterday. Great illustration of how land weakens strong hurricane goes in 935 mb com… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/781438174618759168

[USTropics]

Pretty good pass from about 2 hours ago. It does indeed look like the LLC has run out in front of the convection:

[SouthDadeFish]

It looks like the center is partially exposed on the SW side of the convective mass. Recently, a new convective burst has fired to the NE of the center and appears to be expanding SW, toward the TC center. This is clearly a sheared TC.

[wxman57]

It's tracking north of where it looked like it might yesterday, closer to the GFS forecast.This lessens the chance of a prolonged stall near the coast of Venezuala (and possibly Gulf threat). It also lessens the threat to Florida. Could be an East Coast threat (Carolinas-northward), though.

[Ken711]

It's tracking north of where it looked like it might yesterday, closer to the GFS forecast.This lessens the chance of a prolonged stall near the coast of Venezuala (and possibly Gulf threat). It also lessens the threat to Florida. Could be an East Coast threat (Carolinas-northward), though.

I've had this feeling (NC/VA) since the beginning. Hope it eventually tracks out to sea.

[cycloneye]

Plane found 80kt winds uncontaminated.

080 050 001 00

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I wouldn't be too surprised if Matthew's LLC became exposed briefly later today due to wind shear and some dry air intrusion. The anticyclone has become completely displaced to the south and is actually shearing Matthew.

[cycloneye]

Plane found 80kt winds uncontaminated.

080 050 001 00

Pressure is down to 995 mbs.

[GCANE]

West side getting whacked pretty good by the ULL at 25N 72W
Looks like it is filling in though and should relax the shear somewhat later this afternoon.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv-animated.gif

[ThetaE]

Plane found 80kt winds uncontaminated.

080 050 001 00

Pressure is down to 995 mbs.

Not to mention those winds were found in the convection-less NW quadrant. Wouldn't be surprised if they find hurricane-force surface winds.

[NotoSans]

Recon seems to have found a hurricane. 80-kt flight level winds and 64-kt SFMR winds support an initial intensity of 65 kt.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/781457464210239488

[cycloneye]

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS MATTHEW A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 65.5W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM ENE OF CURACAO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES

[tolakram]

Hmmm.

visible loop
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=15&lon=-66&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=gray&map=county

[ThetaE]

Recon seems to have found a hurricane. 80-kt flight level winds and 64-kt SFMR winds support an initial intensity of 65 kt.

Perhaps this belongs in the Recon Discussion thread, but since all the talk is happening over here...

Not quite; those are 10-second winds, but hurricane-force requires 1-minute sustained winds of at least 64 kts. Data from this quadrant supports a 60 kt TS.

[tolakram]

latest

[northjaxpro]

Looking at the visible image, it appears that the COC is partially exposed on the SW edge. Cirrus blowoff covers over the circulation somewhat. SW shear definitely being impacted on the cyclone at this time.

[tolakram]

WIsh we had more Non-U.S members aka caribbean/Mexico posting in here and in future storms, seems like the U.S is the only country that matters in the Atlantic and sharing their views.

Reports from our members here: viewtopic.php?f=59&t=118365