EPAC: CELIA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/Adriansweather/status/752160198425341952

[Yellow Evan]

Support for Celia becoming a Major Hurricane has gone down the drain.

Still has a shot to make a run at Cat 2/3 IMO if it can quickly clear out an eye

[Alyono]

convection is already losing organization. This is really being affected by diurnal variations.

Also, it is sure a strange sight when it is the Canadian that is the most conservative in terms of intensification. MU still keeps a cane just north of Hawaii. The newest CMC has an open wave

[Yellow Evan]

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EP, 04, 2016071018,   , BEST,   0, 149N, 1219W,  70,  988, HU,  34, NEQ,  120,   70,   40,  110, 1010,  220,  15,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,      CELIA, D,

[Alyono]

and EC has landfall of a moderate TS

[Yellow Evan]

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TXPZ23 KNES 101842
TCSENP
CCA

A.  04E (CELIA)

B.  10/1800Z

C.  14.9N

D.  121.8W

E.  THREE/GOES-W

F.  T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR/VIS

H.  REMARKS...CORRECTED FOR MET. PT AND MET IS 4.0 BASED ON SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. DT IS 4.5 BASED ON CENTER EMBEDDED IN
LG. DT IS 3.5 BASED ON WELL DEFINED CDO OF .75 DEGREES DIAMETER WITH
1.5 ADDED FOR BANDING FEATURE. FT IS BASED ON MET GIVEN INCONSISTENCY
IN DT NUMBERS CALCULATED USING DIFFERENT PATTERNS.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...MICHAEL

[Yellow Evan]

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 04, 201607101800,  10, DVTS,         CI,  , 1490N, 12190W,      , 2,  77, 2,  979, 2, DVRK,    ,     ,     ,     ,     ,     ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,    ,    , E,  TAFB, ASL,   VI, 3, 4545 /////,      ,   , GOES15,  CSC, T, White band did not have greater that .25 wrap around


[Yellow Evan]

Time is running out.

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                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  CELIA       EP042016  07/10/16  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    70    77    84    90    93    97    96    93    86    76    68    61    57
V (KT) LAND       70    77    84    90    93    97    96    93    86    76    68    61    57
V (KT) LGEM       70    78    85    90    94    93    89    81    72    62    55    48    44
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         4     4     4     5    11    11     4     2     3     4     6     7     7
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     0    -2    -4    -4    -5    -4    -1    -2    -1     2    -1     0    -3
SHEAR DIR         68    97   106    50    32    39    49    69   190   199   251   278   296
SST (C)         27.7  27.7  27.4  26.9  26.5  26.3  26.1  25.4  24.4  24.1  24.4  24.6  24.6
POT. INT. (KT)   142   142   138   133   129   126   124   117   107   104   106   109   109
200 MB T (C)   -52.4 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 -51.1 -51.5 -51.3 -51.9 -52.0 -52.5
200 MB VXT (C)   0.3   0.4   0.6   0.6   0.6   0.7   0.8   0.8   0.8   0.9   0.8   0.5   0.7
TH_E DEV (C)       5     5     5     5     5     5     4     3     2     2     2     3     3
700-500 MB RH     71    70    70    71    70    70    71    71    69    68    64    61    58
MODEL VTX (KT)    28    30    32    34    35    37    37    36    35    33    31    30    29
850 MB ENV VOR    59    67    77    74    73    78    77    68    60    57    44    49    44
200 MB DIV        52    57    50    38    48    41    30    29    -6    21    -7     6    -6
700-850 TADV       2     2     0    -4    -7    -2    -2     0     2    10    15    17    12
LAND (KM)       1488  1575  1668  1750  1835  1943  2021  2092  2184  2000  1799  1603  1377
LAT (DEG N)     14.9  15.0  15.0  15.1  15.2  15.7  16.4  17.4  18.6  19.6  20.4  20.9  21.2
LONG(DEG W)    121.9 123.2 124.4 125.5 126.6 128.6 130.3 132.0 133.9 135.7 137.6 139.5 141.7
STM SPEED (KT)    12    12    11    11    10    10     9    10    10    10     9    10    10
HEAT CONTENT      15    24    27    14     5     7     7     3     0     0     0     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12      CX,CY: -11/  1
  T-12 MAX WIND:  55            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  513  (MEAN=586)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:   7.7 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  98.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR):           36.6

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   1.   1.   1.  -1.  -4.  -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     0.   1.   2.   2.   2.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  10.   9.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     1.   1.   2.   2.   4.   5.   5.   5.   4.   4.   3.   2.
  PERSISTENCE            4.   5.   6.   6.   5.   4.   2.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.  -1.   0.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -7.  -8.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     1.   2.   5.   7.  11.  12.  11.  10.   6.   4.   3.   2.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   4.   3.   3.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           7.  14.  20.  23.  27.  26.  23.  16.   6.  -2.  -9. -13.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   70. LAT, LON:   14.9   121.9

      ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA      07/10/16  18 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):    15.0     -22.0  to   38.5       0.61           5.7
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :    66.9      40.3  to  144.5       0.25           1.7
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    17.0       0.0  to   75.9       0.22           1.9
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :     7.7      38.9  to    2.1       0.85           6.6
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :     5.7      18.9  to    1.4       0.76           5.4
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    70.0      22.5  to  132.0       0.84           5.1
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    49.0     -11.0  to  135.3       0.41           1.5
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):   278.2     638.0  to  -68.2       0.51           0.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :    -0.2       2.1  to   -1.7       0.60          -0.8
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     0.0      81.4  to    0.0       1.00           0.9
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=  35% is   5.6 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  37% is   2.9 times sample mean (12.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  28% is   3.3 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  20% is   3.5 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  20% is   4.8 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  16% is   2.3 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%)
 
 Matrix of RI probabilities
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:    35.3%   37.2%   28.0%   20.3%   19.6%   16.3%    0.0%
    Logistic:    23.9%   31.8%   20.1%   12.7%    7.7%    5.3%    1.8%
    Bayesian:    14.7%   11.4%    7.6%    2.9%    1.1%    0.8%    0.0%
   Consensus:    24.6%   26.8%   18.6%   12.0%    9.5%    7.4%    0.6%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA      07/10/16  18 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Kingarabian]

[gatorcane]

convection is already losing organization. This is really being affected by diurnal variations.

Also, it is sure a strange sight when it is the Canadian that is the most conservative in terms of intensification. MU still keeps a cane just north of Hawaii. The newest CMC has an open wave

The new CMC upgrade has made this model more conservative I have noticed. Also, not spinning up the phantom storms as often as it once was.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016
200 PM PDT SUN JUL 10 2016

After an early morning burst of deep, cold-topped thunderstorms over
the center, dry air entrainment has once again taken its toll on the
inner-core convective structure of Celia. The CDO has eroded due to
a narrow band of dry air wrapping all the way into the center, which
is noted in both conventional and microwave satellite imagery. Celia
has now taken the appearance of a tropical cyclone with a banding
eye feature. Dvorak estimates are T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and T4.0/65
kt from SAB, and the consensus of various objective satellite
intensity estimates is 70 kt. Based on these data, the initial
intensity is set to 70 kt, making Celia the second hurricane of the
2016 eastern North Pacific season. The 34- and 50-kt wind radii are
based on 1808Z ASCAT-B wind data.

The initial motion estimate remains 275/12 kt. There is no
significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning.
Celia should move westward for the next 24 h along the southern
periphery of a strong deep-layer ridge, followed by turn to the
west-northwest on day 2 as a shortwave trough briefly weakens the
ridge. By day 3 and beyond, the ridge is forecast to re-strengthen
and force Celia back on a westward track. The latest NHC model
guidance is tightly clustered about the previous forecast track, so
the new forecast is basically just an update of the previous
advisory and lies close to the TCVE consensus track model.

Celia still has another 24 h or so to strengthen while the vertical
wind shear remains light and sea-surface temperatures are above
26.5C. By 48 h, decreasing SSTs ahead of the hurricane should induce
gradual weakening, but not as fast as normal due to the light shear
conditions that are expected to continue through day 5. The NHC
intensity forecast remains above the intensity consensus model IVCN,
and continues to follows a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 15.0N 122.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 15.1N 124.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 15.3N 126.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 15.8N 128.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 16.6N 130.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 18.5N 133.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 20.2N 137.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 15/1800Z 21.1N 142.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Yellow Evan]

convection is already losing organization. This is really being affected by diurnal variations.

Also, it is sure a strange sight when it is the Canadian that is the most conservative in terms of intensification. MU still keeps a cane just north of Hawaii. The newest CMC has an open wave

The new CMC upgrade has made this model more conservative I have noticed. Also, not spinning up the phantom storms as often as it once was.

I don't think the CMC was upgraded.

[1900hurricane]

Well, this is an interesting visible presentation.

[Hammy]

convection is already losing organization. This is really being affected by diurnal variations.

Also, it is sure a strange sight when it is the Canadian that is the most conservative in terms of intensification. MU still keeps a cane just north of Hawaii. The newest CMC has an open wave

The new CMC upgrade has made this model more conservative I have noticed. Also, not spinning up the phantom storms as often as it once was.

I don't think the CMC was upgraded.

I believe it was in January.

Well, this is an interesting visible presentation.

Reminds me of a Wpac system--ERC already happening at 70kt?

[stormwise]

[quote="1900hurricane"]Well, this is an interesting visible presentation.

cinnamon roll appearance.

[Yellow Evan]

The new CMC upgrade has made this model more conservative I have noticed. Also, not spinning up the phantom storms as often as it once was.

I don't think the CMC was upgraded.

I believe it was in January.

Reminds me of a Wpac system--ERC already happening at 70kt?

Must have forgotten then.

I don't see an outer eyewall on microwave, so I don't think it's ERCing. More like dry air if you ask me.

[Alyono]

MU consistently north of the islands

[Kingarabian]

Well, this is an interesting visible presentation.

[img]http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/products/storms/2016EP04/1KMSRVIS/2016EP04_1KMSRVIS_201607102145.GIF[img]

Would be nice to have a clean MW pass to see what's going on.

[1900hurricane]

It also might be worth noting once again that Celia is passing almost directly over the same path as Blas and therefore over Blas's wake. The resulting decrease in instability directly beneath the core may be playing a part too.

[stormwise]

Got to be close to major intensty looks very organised.