ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

[Siker]

102 hours:

[ninel conde]

Best looking disturbance i have seen in the central tropical atlantic in some time. reminds me of what the disturbance that formed camille looked like in the same area though obviously it wont be another camille.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

I wonder what data the TCLP is using to make such a bold estimate of a CAT 2 at 240

[RL3AO]

FWIW, the models have been too fast with both 96L and 97L.

[stormlover2013]

Where does it have at 126 hours ?

[RL3AO]

18z GFS. If it can stay south of Hispaniola, it spends quite a bit of time underneath the upper ridge (200 mb wind barbs)

[Siker]

Where does it have at 126 hours ?

About where the GFS has it, off Guatemala / Honduras. Odd intensity fluctuations in the final 24 hours that are hard to post from Levi's plots.

[Hammy]

FWIW, the models have been too fast with both 96L and 97L.

As far as development or forward speed?

[RL3AO]

Forward speed. Generally been 4 or 5 knots too fast during the last 24 hours.

[hurricanehunter69]

Best looking disturbance i have seen in the central tropical atlantic in some time. reminds me of what the disturbance that formed camille looked like in the same area though obviously it wont be another camille.

(" Reminds you of the disturbance that formed Camille" ) This shows your age buddy! I'm not surprised. and BTW ( that is a compliment!) I too would like to place my bet on this dark horse (97L ). I like it's chances better than 96L

[Kazmit]

Best looking disturbance i have seen in the central tropical atlantic in some time. reminds me of what the disturbance that formed camille looked like in the same area though obviously it wont be another camille.

(" Reminds you of the disturbance that formed Camille" ) This shows your age buddy! I'm not surprised. and BTW ( that is a compliment!) I too would like to place my bet on this dark horse (97L ). I like it's chances better than 96L

I agree. The chances are lower than 96L according to the NHC, but that is only for the next 5 days. I'll bet the chances are much higher for 7 days. If it enters the GOM, it should be moving slower, allowing a higher chance for development.In fact, it could even explode; the temperatures in the GOM are well into the 80s.

[Yellow Evan]

Shear has to be low and this system needs to get an inner core established before this thing explodes, no matter how warm waters are.

[Gustywind]

Yellow alert have been activated for Guadeloupe due to a risk of strong showers and thunderstorms beginning tomorrow 12AM till Sunday 5 PM.
I will keep you informed as usual and in case of.
Regards.
Gustywind.

[Gustywind]

Yellow alert have been activated for Guadeloupe due to a risk of strong showers and thunderstorms beginning tomorrow 12AM till Sunday 5 PM.
I will keep you informed as usual and in case of.
Regards.
Gustywind.

Link: http://www.meteofrance.gp/integration/s ... eloupe.pdf

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
752 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

A tropical wave is moving across the central Atlantic with axis
from 20N47W to 10N47W, moving west at about 15-20 kt. The wave
coincides with a broad and amplified 700 mb trough between 40W-
52W and abundant deep-layer moisture as noted in SSMI Total
Precipitation Water Vapor Imagery. Recent scatterometer data
depicts a surface troughing with an area of fresh trades on the
northern portion of the trough from 13N-22N between 43W-50W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 12N-17N between 46W-56W. As
this wave moves west during the next several days, fresh trades
accompanied by potentially higher gusts will move across the
waters north of the Greater Antilles and waters surrounding the
Turks and Caicos, SE Bahamas, and eastern and central Cuba
creating hazardous boating conditions.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I'll bet the chances are much higher for 7 days. If it enters the GOM, it should be moving slower, allowing a higher chance for development.In fact, it could even explode; the temperatures in the GOM are well into the 80s.

Wouldn't be so sure of that. We have had many invests and potential systems forecast to "explode" in the Gulf over the years and nothing. Record breaking hurricane drought going on as we speak. Waters are always plenty warm enough every year. Dry air, instability, and of course shear are always a problem nowadays.

[ninel conde]

Best looking disturbance i have seen in the central tropical atlantic in some time. reminds me of what the disturbance that formed camille looked like in the same area though obviously it wont be another camille.

(" Reminds you of the disturbance that formed Camille" ) This shows your age buddy! I'm not surprised. and BTW ( that is a compliment!) I too would like to place my bet on this dark horse (97L ). I like it's chances better than 96L

I honestly dont think it will develop, but who knows. I also saw the image of camille as a disturbance on the net, but cant find it now.

[Hammy]

Best looking disturbance i have seen in the central tropical atlantic in some time. reminds me of what the disturbance that formed camille looked like in the same area though obviously it wont be another camille.

(" Reminds you of the disturbance that formed Camille" ) This shows your age buddy! I'm not surprised. and BTW ( that is a compliment!) I too would like to place my bet on this dark horse (97L ). I like it's chances better than 96L

I honestly dont think it will develop, but who knows. I also saw the image of camille as a disturbance on the net, but cant find it now.

http://i.imgur.com/PQfHd8z.png
http://i.imgur.com/wYNxeQy.png

Camille (in the Caribbean) vs 97L currently, both seemed east-west elongated along a northward extension of the ITCZ. Similar type of wave setup at least.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I'm definitely optimistic about 97L's chances. Its large and broad structure should help it survive the unfavorable conditions it's experiencing now. By days 4 and 5, when it reaches the West Caribbean, the environment is expected to be favorable for development. Low shear, record heat content, above-average ocean temperatures, and enhanced upper-level divergence as a CCKW passes over should favor an amplifying tropical wave at the least, with real potential for the formation of a tropical cyclone. How fast 97L develops and how strong it gets will determine its strength. A stronger storm may gain move more poleward initially thanks to a front off the SE coast, which would put the upper Texas coast in play. A weaker storm that crosses the Yucatan would put Mexico and the southern Texas coastline in play. There are still details to work out, but I think 97L has at least the chance to be the first substantial threat to land in the Atlantic this season.

[Hurricaneman]

Best looking disturbance i have seen in the central tropical atlantic in some time. reminds me of what the disturbance that formed camille looked like in the same area though obviously it wont be another camille.

Also reminds me of Charley in 2004 in the same location so this will have to be watched as of right now it isn't much but as we all know it may be nothing to worry about or could be a big problem a week or so from now. The models are trending towards development in the central to western Caribbean and this could be more than modeled if it can get itself together before the Caribbean

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service