ATL: GASTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Wow just WOW look at the GFS prediction of this monster!

[Kazmit]

Wow just WOW look at the GFS prediction of this monster!

And it's back up to a Cat 5 prediction. It could be the first in 9 years. I hope this happens if it stays a fish, but you know what they say... be careful what you wish for.

[Siker]

This marks 7 runs in a row form the GFS predicting a Category 5 out of this. Impressive to say the least.

[cycloneye]

NDG a Klotzbach tweet.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/767762167277858816

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 221737
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:


A low pressure area associated with a tropical wave is centered
about 300 miles southwest of the southern Cabo Verde Islands. The
associated showers and thunderstorms are well organized. However,
recent microwave satellite data suggests the system has not yet
developed a well-defined circulation. A tropical depression could
form at any time tonight or on Tuesday as the system moves westward
to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the eastern tropical
Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Kazmit]

Still not a TD as of 2pm. They mention it becoming a TD "any time tonight or on Tuesday" so it looks like we'll have to wait a bit longer than we thought.

[AutoPenalti]

No defined center? Say what.

[Medtronic15]

Crazy season by far!

[Hammy]

Euro coming in stronger and further south.

[CrazyC83]

What are the SST's east of Bermuda? A bit farther west and this could be their worst storm in recorded history...

Also, I'd really watch this into Newfoundland at the end of the line. That GFS wants to place a 920mb storm not far off Cape Race, which would be much larger and deeper than Igor. It doesn't seem realistic, but who knows.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 221758
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
158 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...


A tropical wave is in the east Atlantic with an axis extending
from near 16N27W to 06N27W, moving west at 15 kt over the last 24
hours. The wave is associated with a 1010 mb low that is centered
near 12N27W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 16N
between 26W and 31W. Environmental conditions are conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form later
today while the system moves westward to west- northwestward over
the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

The ridge was bending it somewhat western last night. Usually I would discount such a far north westward motion however the Western Atlantic Ridge has been so anomalously strong this summer I'm not so certain in this case.

[CrazyC83]

Given how far out it is, there is no need to rush advisories. If this was close to land, I am sure it would have been declared by now (with TC warnings out). The BT can capture the pre-declaration period.

[Gustywind]

Given how far out it is, there is no need to rush advisories. If this was close to land, I am sure it would have been declared by now (with TC warnings out). The BT can capture the pre-declaration period.

Agree with you UNHOPEFULLY it's too far and that's the good news...

[Mouton]

The ECMWF shows it circa 42N 57w at sub 947MB heading NE at 12Z Aug 30th. Way early today to say for certain but it is looking like a fish, hopefully as far as the US EC goes that is.

[Gustywind]

90L a little south... with increasing numbers.
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
22/1800 UTC 12.1N 27.9W T2.5/2.5 90L
22/1200 UTC 12.3N 26.0W T2.0/2.0 90L
22/0600 UTC 11.8N 23.8W T1.5/1.5 90L
22/0000 UTC 11.7N 22.5W T1.0/1.0 90L

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

Location: 12.0°N 28.2°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1014 mb
Radius of Circulation: 300 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 60 NM

[NDG]

If this is not a TD I don't know what it is.

rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_meteosat.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_met_4km_visir2_floater&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... =composite

[Gustywind]

If this is not a TD I don't know what it is.

rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_meteosat.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_met_4km_visir2_floater&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... =composite

Maybe a TS lol

[chaser1]

Frankly if I were in the N.E. Caribbean, I'd have greater concern regarding 90L than 99L and that is in spite of the unanomous model support to suggest otherwise. If 99L were to really start organizing quickly, there'd be an outside chance of it being a Tropical Storm as it passes over or near. At the same time however, on its present track I'd expect that some spotty tropical storm conditions may well be felt midweek in terms of torrential rains and gusts to T.S. force its present state of organization and size. Now as for 90L, in the unlikely event that models continue to bend 90L's track more and more westward it may come a point where guidance might simply determine that the storm may have passed whatever weakness which is projected to pull it significantly toward the N.W. starting in about 48 hours. Once again here we have a very sizeable tropical system in the deep tropics in late August. These large rollers are a bit less sensitive to more subtle weaknesses than smaller systems.