EPAC: LESTER - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/770270587205726210

[Ntxw]

Gorgeous

[Kingarabian]

Two buzzsaws beauties brought to you by the Eastern Pacific.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 AUG 2016 Time : 143000 UTC
Lat : 18:02:22 N Lon : 129:08:52 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 945.2mb/119.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.4 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : +6.9C Cloud Region Temp : -68.6C

Scene Type : EY

[Yellow Evan]

Maintaining for now

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 AUG 2016 Time : 150000 UTC
Lat : 18:03:00 N Lon : 129:15:09 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 945.2mb/119.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.3 6.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : +9.6C Cloud Region Temp : -67.8C

Scene Type : EYE

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS has this in my backyard in 6 days.

[Ntxw]

[CrazyC83]

That should be a T6.0, maybe T6.5, at the next update.

[bob rulz]

Another hurricane potentially moving into the vicinity of Hawaii? What is up with the last couple of years?

[hurricanes1234]

Wow!!!

[Darvince]

Another hurricane potentially moving into the vicinity of Hawaii? What is up with the last couple of years?

The positive PDO combined with global warming has caused the giant Pacific high to move even farther north than typical for summer and also allowed waters around Hawai'i to start reaching and exceeding 26C.

[Ntxw]

Lester has held pretty steady for awhile now. Betting on Cat 4 next update...maybe even 120kts?

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 AUG 2016 Time : 180000 UTC
Lat : 17:58:38 N Lon : 129:54:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 945.3mb/119.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.3 6.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21 km

Center Temp : +11.3C Cloud Region Temp : -67.0C

Scene Type : EYE

[galaxy401]

Really amazing seeing two small hurricanes in the open Pacific. While they'll probably be much weaker by the time they get to Hawaii, they should still keep an eye on these systems.

[RL3AO]

Is it time to start throwing out the "a" word?

[Extratropical94]

TXPZ23 KNES 291821
TCSENP

A. 13E (LESTER)

B. 29/1800Z

C. 18.0N

D. 129.9W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...OW EYE EMBEDDED IN LG AND SURROUNDED BY B WITH PLUS 0.5 FOR
EYE ADJUSTMENT YIELDS A DT OF 5.5. MET=5.5 AND PT=6.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIM

Best track is up to category four!

13E LESTER 160829 1800 18.0N 129.9W EPAC 115 951

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 AUG 2016 Time : 180000 UTC
Lat : 17:58:38 N Lon : 129:54:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 945.3mb/119.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.3 6.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21 km

Center Temp : +11.3C Cloud Region Temp : -67.0C

Scene Type : EYE

[Yellow Evan]

Clear cut T6.0.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 AUG 2016 Time : 190000 UTC
Lat : 18:01:35 N Lon : 130:09:46 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 945.3mb/119.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.2 6.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 26 km

Center Temp : +12.3C Cloud Region Temp : -66.5C

Scene Type : EYE

[CrazyC83]

I'd say looking at that it is 120 kt right now.

[Alyono]

This could be an Oahu hit from the east as a powerful hurricane