Kazmit_ wrote:A noticeable southward shift in the track...
Us in the Leewards should keep an eye on this one if this soutward trend continues...
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Kazmit_ wrote:A noticeable southward shift in the track...
ronjon wrote:Hmmm....nobody posted the 00z ECM? Shows a strengthening tropical cyclone headed W-NW toward the Bahamas at the end of its run. I know it's 10 days out but can't quite call it a recurve into open Atlantic just yet.
SouthFLTropics wrote:ronjon wrote:Hmmm....nobody posted the 00z ECM? Shows a strengthening tropical cyclone headed W-NW toward the Bahamas at the end of its run. I know it's 10 days out but can't quite call it a recurve into open Atlantic just yet.
I looked at the overnight Euro and noticed that as well but didn't have time to post it this morning. Looking at the ridge over the SE CONUS and Atlantic at 240 hours it appears that movement from 240 hours+ would be continued west or WNW. The GFS keeps coming west as well, albeit weak. I'm actually leaning more towards the GFS solution given the past runs for Hermine and Julia. Both stayed weak and waited to develop until very close in, which is what everyone has been looking out for all along this season. I could see this remaining weak until the Bahamas, Caribbean, or points further west and then developing.
sma10 wrote:Once AGAIN, it becomes GFS vs Euro (wouldn't you think these two models would agree one time, even by accident?)
They both are at least relatively in agreement for the next few days that TD12 will struggle mightily, but thereafter GFS says it will completely dissipate while Euro thinks it comes back in SW Atlantic. In the past, you'd have to give credence to the Euro option, but maybe not this year.
wxman57 wrote:GeneratorPower wrote:I know we are all struggling with autocorrect but for the newbies, it's the Hebert Box. Not the Herbert Box.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hebert_Box
That Wikipedia article is wrong. The Hebert Box is NOT a predictor. Paul Hebert noted that most hurricanes that eventually impacted Florida did go through that area. However, just because a storm moves through that area does NOT mean it is likely to hit Florida. As for Twelve, it may be struggling all the way across the Atlantic, as did Hermine.
gatorcane wrote:it's actually more concerning to me that it is getting sheared and staying shallow since it could make it quite a bit west and it might find better conditions down the road.
blp wrote:SouthFLTropics wrote:ronjon wrote:Hmmm....nobody posted the 00z ECM? Shows a strengthening tropical cyclone headed W-NW toward the Bahamas at the end of its run. I know it's 10 days out but can't quite call it a recurve into open Atlantic just yet.
I looked at the overnight Euro and noticed that as well but didn't have time to post it this morning. Looking at the ridge over the SE CONUS and Atlantic at 240 hours it appears that movement from 240 hours+ would be continued west or WNW. The GFS keeps coming west as well, albeit weak. I'm actually leaning more towards the GFS solution given the past runs for Hermine and Julia. Both stayed weak and waited to develop until very close in, which is what everyone has been looking out for all along this season. I could see this remaining weak until the Bahamas, Caribbean, or points further west and then developing.
I agree with you and Wxman57 this looks like it will be another sleeper staying weak for a while. My impressions of the models this year has been to trust the Euro for the Steering environment and the GFS for the conditions pertaining to the development of the system. Right now both the Euro and GFS have ridging building over top of the system later in the period so I think this one will need to be watched. Certainly not an automatic fish at this time. As for the strength I have to side with the GFS.
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