ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Ivanhater]

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Good work US tropics..

Euro all of a sudden leaves a cut off low behind..again the 500mb run to run consistency has been horrible on the Euro

[Ivanhater]

00Z Euro Ensembles still show NW Caribbean

[USTropics]

Well let's add even more confusion to the models, the ECMWF ensembles look to be significantly SW of the operational.



Ensembles also show ridging off the EC at 240 hours. Totally disagreeing with the operational.

[wxmann_91]

Summary of the 0Z suite: Euro Ensembles and GFS Op west, GFS Ensembles and Euro Op east. This should be fun.

[Ivanhater]

Actually very consistent with previous runs and other models

[USTropics]

ECMWF ensembles actually agree with the operational GFS on a similar track (albeit the GFS is a day faster). Meanwhile, the 00z GFS ensembles were more inline with the operational ECMWF run

GFS position at 240 hours:


Mean ECMWF ensembles position at 216 hours:

[KWT]

The cut-off low solution is I'd have to thought a more low likelyhood solution than the GFS solution. Of course there IS a historical precedent for that track happening but its relatively rare.

CMC looks way too north to start with and so its hard to put much stock in that track.

We will see, I think we are slightly narrowing in on a zone this system islikely to be in, with GFS op run probably on the western edge and the ECM likely on the eastern.

[USTropics]

CMC ensembles do not agree with the operational at all:

[KWT]

Summary of the 0Z suite: Euro Ensembles and GFS Op west, GFS Ensembles and Euro Op east. This should be fun.

The GFS ensembles are still west of the ECM op, most go over far west Haiti or E.Cuba from the looks of things. However I get what you are saying!

06z will be out soon, lets wait and see where that goes!

[tolakram]

Euro 0z hits SA then turns straight north.



GFS 0z

[bamajammer4eva]

How likely is a tropical system plowing into South America to then abruptly get pulled Straight North as the Euro shows? Do troughs dig that far South in late September?

[USTropics]

06z intensity guidance also bullish:

[USTropics]

06z SHIPS:

* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL972016 09/25/16 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 25 29 38 51 67 80 92 102 112 118
V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 25 29 38 51 67 80 92 102 112 118
V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 25 31 39 49 64 82 97 106 107
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 4 5 4 6 5 5 8 10 7 14 9 16 17
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -1 0 -3 -6 -6 -7 -6 -5 -1 0
SHEAR DIR 96 104 94 119 120 99 95 61 42 31 30 15 358
SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.0 29.1 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4
POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 150 152 154 156 152 154 159 155 154 154 154
ADJ. POT. INT. 156 158 156 157 159 161 157 158 165 158 154 151 146
200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -53.6 -53.8 -53.4 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 11 11 11 10
700-500 MB RH 76 76 77 78 77 73 70 64 57 53 50 52 54
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 9 10 12 14 16 17 20 21
850 MB ENV VOR 73 68 65 68 72 65 74 78 58 46 32 56 40
200 MB DIV 26 31 67 70 86 71 68 66 55 58 36 3 14
700-850 TADV 1 2 1 2 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
LAND (KM) 1788 1668 1570 1487 1400 1212 1047 924 779 637 520 463 436
LAT (DEG N) 7.5 7.6 7.9 8.2 8.4 9.1 9.7 10.4 10.6 10.5 10.2 9.9 9.7
LONG(DEG W) 34.9 36.1 37.2 38.2 39.2 41.4 43.6 45.9 48.3 50.7 52.7 54.0 54.4
STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 10 11 11 12 12 12 11 8 5 1
HEAT CONTENT 36 38 40 40 38 30 26 34 38 43 49 52 52

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 9.3

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 20. 26. 32. 38. 43. 47.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 9. 18. 31. 47. 60. 72. 82. 92. 98.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 7.5 34.9

** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972016 INVEST 09/25/16 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.93 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 38.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.25 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 37.5 to 2.9 0.68 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.29 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.39 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.98 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 26.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.91 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
---------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 9.3% 57.9% 40.3% 22.0% 0.0% 53.3% 55.5%
Bayesian: 0.1% 4.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.1%
Consensus: 3.1% 20.6% 13.6% 7.3% 0.0% 17.8% 18.9%

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972016 INVEST 09/25/2016 06 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 25 29 38 51 67 80 92 102 112 118
18HR AGO 20 19 20 23 27 36 49 65 78 90 100 110 116
12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 23 32 45 61 74 86 96 106 112
6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT

[KWT]

How likely is a tropical system plowing into South America to then abruptly get pulled Straight North as the Euro shows? Do troughs dig that far South in late September?

Hazel pulled that trick off around a similar time of year, of course that then bent back NW again afterwards. Very similar track upto 216hrs to the ECM as well.

If it avoids land there will be a great set-up aloft so if it gets a solid 72-96hrs over water and misses land in SA, its going to go blow up.

[KWT]

GFS out to 72hrs developing a TD just east of the islands. Lets see what it does in the next 24-48hrs of the models.

[USTropics]

GFS at 96 hours is just a smidgen more north than the 00z GFS run. Last three operational runs of the GFS are very similar so far.

[USTropics]

Already can see the difference between the 00z ECMWF and the 06z GFS solution. Look at the position of that cutoff trough near the EC at the same time frame:

GFS


ECMWF

[KWT]

06z location of 97L is closer to the GFS ensembles track, the 00z was right on the southern edge of the cluster.

Upper trough is exiting into the Atlantic so the ECM solution shouldn't happen on the GFS, a more gradual shift to the NW looks likely.

[Ivanhater]

Euro has a habit of leaving cut off lows...especially in the SW United States

But we will see

[USTropics]

From everything I'm seeing, Jamaica may be in the cross hairs again this run. Also the current setup looks conducive for rapid intensification once again.