ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[TheStormExpert]

So the 12z UKMET, and NAVGEM shift East some, am I missing any models or is that all?

I'm going to guess the 12z Euro will shift East some as well.

[WeatherEmperor]

So the 12z UKMET, and NAVGEM shift East some, am I missing any models or is that all?

I'm going to guess the 12z Euro will shift East some as well.

You are correct. I guess it should now come as no surprise that the Gfs barely changed from before. The 12z Euro will be put up or shut up time.


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[Bocadude85]

So the 12z UKMET, and NAVGEM shift East some, am I missing any models or is that all?

I'm going to guess the 12z Euro will shift East some as well.

The HWRF & GFDL aren't out yet. I think we are slowly getting a consensus that the Central/NW Bahamas maybe under the gun once this leaves the Caribbean.

[TheStormExpert]

So the 12z UKMET, and NAVGEM shift East some, am I missing any models or is that all?

I'm going to guess the 12z Euro will shift East some as well.

You are correct. I guess it should now come as no surprise that the Gfs barely changed from before. The 12z Euro will be put up or shut up time.


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I'm starting to think that the models may be converging towards the GFS.

[tolakram]

GEFS still tightly clustered.

[TheStormExpert]

GEFS still tightly clustered.

http://i.imgur.com/Voo9hsS.png

Not seeing the orange shading over the cluster like before, what does that mean?

[otowntiger]

So the 12z UKMET shifts East, could this be the start of more East shifts?

Likely So...they will all be east of Bermuda in a couple of days.

I'm beginning to think that too. Too much history and climo that screams such storms re-curve well east of the Bahamas and a significant number of models doggedly determined that way. Unfortunately the re-curve may not be in time to spare some of the islands. But also I'm not buying that this storm will be very intense either. Of course this is just my two cents - not a pro met, etc. etc.

[SouthFLTropics]

Let's not get ahead of ourselves here. One set of runs from different models to the east, particularly the UKMET and NAVGEM, a trend does not make (in my best Yoda voice). The GFS still moved west, albeit very little. And currently the HWRF is running and is further SW by hour 96. Beyond 3-4 days it's a crapshoot right now. Many different solutions and options. Let's see what the Euro has to say.

[tolakram]

East of Florida is the most likely track unless the storm stays weak and drifts too far west. We won't know for days, possibly a week. Still fun to discuss, but I think that's the simple most accurate answer.

[WeatherEmperor]

12z Gfdl is way south and west. It ends roughly near 16n/80w. Gonna post pic soon


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[WeatherEmperor]

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[CourierPR]

Let's not get ahead of ourselves here. One set of runs from different models to the east, particularly the UKMET and NAVGEM, a trend does not make (in my best Yoda voice). The GFS still moved west, albeit very little. And currently the HWRF is running and is further SW by hour 96. Beyond 3-4 days it's a crapshoot right now. Many different solutions and options. Let's see what the Euro has to say.

SMH! We have folks blowing the trumpet for consensus already.

[tolakram]

Oh now, people are discussing it.

GEFS, a little more spread at 192.

[gatorcane]

12z Gfdl is way south and west. It ends roughly near 16n/80w. Gonna post pic soon


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Yep west shift again by the GFDL and weaker than the 06Z (though still intense):

[weatherwindow]

240 hours, it's actually strengthening as it moves offshore of Cuba:

Okay, that's when I know that it's in Fantasy range.

There is no fantasy involved in storms leaving dry land moving over 90 degree water and intensifying.... history is replete with examples... the best I can remember is Georges in 98 come up coming off of Cayo Coco on the North coast of Cuba as a marginal 75mph storm and intensifying to a 105-110 Cat 2 on approach to KW, approximately 250 miles, we can add to that list Ivan, Dennis, Charley and I am sure there are many many others......Rich

[BensonTCwatcher]

We are clearly going to have 1000 mile swings on the track until Sunday or 75W- ish. Models have been consistent on that. Also I would be really surprised if this stays weak once in the Caribbean. The shear will be going away most likely ( according to SHIPS) and there's plenty of moisture and pressures are dropping in the basin according to all the model plots. We know SST's are high, and it's a well formed circ as well with good vorticity.

[ThetaE]

I wouldn't be surprised if the 12z Euro ends up a bit east of the 00z, but I certainly wouldn't call it a trend.

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF puts this on the tip of the Tiburon Peninsula in Haiti at 126 hours heading NNW with a pressure of 947MB. Looks to shoot the gap between Cuba and Haiti.

[ConvergenceZone]

So some models are trending West while others are trending East....Interesting

[SeGaBob]

I wouldn't be surprised if the 12z Euro ends up a bit east of the 00z, but I certainly wouldn't call it a trend.

If it does it's over.