ATL: HERMINE - Models

[N2FSU]

+228hrs

[jlauderdal]

Strengthening with landfall in the Keys/SF:

it was only a matter of time before the gfs showed a sf hit...not because its going to verify because that's what the gfs does, run to run consistency beyond 5 days is pathetic so you get lots of different solutions and sf has been hit by gfs model storms many times the last 10 years..anyway, system looks better this morning, conditions upstream look decent, complex setup with fiona and the ridge..have fun bantering about the model runs the next 5 days...

btw, we are back to our summer of minimal rain on the ec of florida after a sw flow two weeks ago...ridging has been strong since june...snow in wyoming a few nights ago so the atmosphere in NA is moving towards a fall pattern as usual so be on the lookout for troughing

[N2FSU]

HUGE change in location and intensity from the 00Z run:

[USTropics]

Model accuracy is very poor at this range, but the model trends over the past three runs have been shifting west, with a stronger ridge each run building over the SE US. The ECMWF showed it first, and now the GFS is sniffing out that scenario:

[USTropics]

06z GFS has landfall near the FL/AL border at 252 hours:

[BobHarlem]

So, Now the Euro flipped to out to sea, GFS now has a hurricane hitting Mobile/Pensacola in 10-11 days? We can't get recon soon enough.

[jlauderdal]

Model accuracy is very poor at this range, but the model trends over the past three runs have been shifting west, with a stronger ridge each run building over the SE US. The ECMWF showed it first, and now the GFS is sniffing out that scenario:

trend is your friend...it would seem a westward shift makes sense...lets see what the euro does with it

[N2FSU]

+252hrs

[NDG]

0z HWRF shows 99L not really getting its act together until reaches the Bahamas because of mid level dry air that will affect the system off and on through the next 2-3 days.

[stormlover2013]

Going to be all about the ridge!!! Will it find a weakness or will the ridge be to strong

[USTropics]

06z GFS ensembles still split, but some showing a westward bend now:

[Kazmit]

06z GFS ensembles still split, but some showing a westward bend now:

Looks like emerging into he GOM is possible too- and a threat to the Gulf Coast.

[abajan]

0z HWRF shows 99L not really getting its act together until reaches the Bahamas because of mid level dry air that will affect the system off and on through the next 2-3 days.

Yeah and 3 days ago it projected a fairly strong hurricane SE of Barbados:

[NDG]

0z HWRF shows 99L not really getting its act together until reaches the Bahamas because of mid level dry air that will affect the system off and on through the next 2-3 days.

Yeah and 3 days ago it projected a fairly strong hurricane SE of Barbados:

http://i.imgur.com/R3bbJiK.jpg

Just like the GFS they both missed the mid level dry environment so close it on their runs a few days ago.

[Emmett_Brown]

One thing that jumps out about the 06Z GFS run, is that 99L slows to a crawl in/near the Bahamas... it would have plenty of time to sit over those waters, and the steering currently could change dramatically in that time as well, so really hard to predict.

[SouthFLTropics]

06z Navgem appears to drop development. With that said it also appears to keep the ridge over the SE intact.

[SouthFLTropics]

If you want some good entertainment check out the 06z CMC!!!

[Frank2]

GFS shows a lot to a moderate of moisture over South Florida at 240 hours but nothing else - if it doesn't strengthen soon then that might become true, due to interaction of the larger islands, etc. I think we'll all agree the models do not have a handle on it, even though some trend to the GOM...

[Weatherboy1]

I think we really need to see 2-3 model cycles showing consistency/persistency of the ridge before making any final judgments. But I will say that unlike many other systems that looked like potential FL hits 10 days out, but turned into clear "fishes" by around day 7, this one is much more interesting and potentially worrisome. 99 could have a lot of time to strengthen in bathtub-heat water in the Bahamas, and that ridging appears to be becoming an issue in terms of track. We shall see.

[Siker]

00z UKMET with its westward turn (and the remains of Fiona being absorbed):